BG College Football Pick Em / College Football Thread

[octopus]

I disagree that Penn State will not be in the national championship game if a Big XII or SEC Champ has 1 loss. (Well, this is assuming that the current trends continue and Penn State doesn't start winning "ugly", making them seem weaker than they should be - affecting human polls)

My rationale? It's actually quite simple. It's how polls work.

Penn State is consensus #6 right now. Looking at how far teams drop after they lose, it's very likely that they will be #1 or #2 in both polls if they are undefeated, and either the Big XII or the SEC Champ has 1 loss.

A brief look at Sagarin and Massey computer rankings, it appears that Penn State is ranked at #4 and #5, and they will certainly go higher if the teams higher than them lose. It is unlikely that the difference in computer ranking will make the difference to bump Penn State out of #1 or #2 in the BCS ranking, since human polls make up 2/3 of the total score.

It's not like Penn State is ranked significantly lower in computer rankings. I suspect this has to do with the large margin of victory that they have in their out of conference results.

[archibaldcrane]

Wisconsin is looking really good... where's archibaldcrane?

I'm at my cousin's wedding in Rhode Island, and I've been crying in the fetal position for the last 48 hours...

...Badgers lose a game they should've won, Brewers out of the playoffs, Packers lose to the fucking Atlanta Falcons. The Badgers have one player on their entire team who can catch a fucking pass, and he's playing on one leg. It's completely retarded. We need a Chris Chambers or Lee Evans to have someone to throw to, noone on this squad can catch a ball hitting them in their hands...

Damnit. We're 26 in one poll and 24 in the other - gotta win vs. Penn State to guarantee our annual Capitol One bowl berth now...Auburn or something we're coming for ya!

[Bregor]

you're fucking stupid

Am I? Have you seen Alabama's last six quarters of football? I'm love the Tide and I'm scared shitless, OU and Mizzou have looked like much more complete teams, and at least three other teams in the top 10 look more explosive. So a huge first half at Georgia and beating an overrated Clemson team aside, why should they be #2? They struggled not only with Kentucky but also Tulane at home, the same Tulane who just got abused by Army. I just think they jumped too high too soon in the rankings, and the reason why I said nobody should be afraid of them right now is because anyone in the top 10 would have killed them last week. And like I said, I'm normally down on the Big 12 but I think it's a stronger conference this year, which is why I would rank Texas over Bama at the moment. Maybe I was too hasty of putting Texas Tech above them too, but I was pissed because of the way Bama played, and also the fucking Cubs getting swept... Anyway, Ole Miss at home should be fun to watch.

As for a team in the Big Ten running the table... Northwestern anyone? How funny would it be if two teams went undefeated in that conference since they don't play Penn State. (It's not gonna happen, but still...)

And about UNC; how badly do you think Miami wants Butch Davis back right now? :D

[Akiyama]

Epic long post perusual.

Well shit, pardon me for thinking they were #2 in the AP last week. Which, since it is what I thought was the case, dropping from 2 to 4 when winning WOULD be a relative nosedive.

First, no. You said this:

UGA creeped back into the top 10. Alabama nosedived relatively speaking in the USA Today poll...

You didn't say AP Poll in your post. You said what I bolded. They were #2 in the AP Poll last week and still are. They were #4 in the USA Today Poll last week and still are. There was no drop whatsoever in either case. I think you just confused the two polls.

I wont mention how your UGA dominating team looked lethargic and lazy against a 16 freshman starting Kentucky team IN BRYANT DENNY STADIUM. But hey, when you guys drop a legitimate game and you start making excuses about it, ill be here laughing at you, hoping we get a chance to embarass you in Atlanta.

You realize how bad you sound right now? It's not often I find things to argue with another SEC fan about, but seriously.. you're asking for it. The fact that Alabama dominated you 31-0 in the first half last week in your own stadium, only to look lethargic against a young Kentucky team that has 16 freshmen should actually reflect badly for UGA. Also... who the fuck cares how many freshmen are on a team? Have you SEEN who Alabama starts in a lot of their skill positions? Yeah. You guessed it. Freshmen. They play a huge roll in the Alabama offense/defense. Not to mention they are a year ahead of schedule. They weren't supposed to be this good. Neither was Kentucky. UGA on the other hand WAS supposed to be this good, but a couple O-line injuries have cost them. Their front lines SUCK.

As far as youth goes, when it comes down to it, experience is a huge factor, but as we saw by the Oregon State/USC game, football is a different thing every week. You don't assume anything.

Gregorio: 1. Notice i never mention a 2 loss Big XII or SEC champ getting in over an undefeated penn state. I said if that ended up being the case...it would get a little gritty.

2. Think what you want, but a 1 loss Big XII and SEC champs WOULD get in over an undefeated Penn State team. For a few major reasons. UGA, Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, and Mizzou were all ranked much higher preseason, and have much tougher conferences. Also, as we all know from Florida edging in 2 years ago after smiting Arkansas in Atlanta, those conference title games add a lot of padding to close races. Penn state at what, 12-0, would look like a lesser team than a 12-1 SEC or Big XII champ. 2 losses obviously changes things, but those 1 loss teams from those conferences are simply locks this year.

I know it's not directed at me, but if an UNDEFEATED TEAM from a major conference, now matter how down said conference is, goes undefeated, it WILL get in over a 2 loss team, even if their schedules were near impossible. If it was up to humans only, we could take into account the kind of games the two loss team played, but it's not. Get over it. If PSU goes undefeated, Oklahoma has 1 loss, and UGA has two losses, UGA wouldn't go.

I do think the same works for a 1 loss team. If it's say.. Penn State is undefeated, LSU ended up with 1 loss (say @Florida), Oklahoma loses to Texas and ends with 1 loss, I do think Penn State would get into the National Championship game. Their schedule, while not as hard as UGA's, is still challenging. Ohio State is looking REALLY good with Pryor, and especially with Beanie Wells back. Wisconsin doesn't look nearly as good, same with Michigan, but away games are still impressive to win. As far as who would go between Oklahoma and LSU or whoever it may be? I don't know. That'd be up to the BCS. I think it depends on all around performance.

Truthfully, I just don't think you know what you're talking about in a lot of cases. I'm not trying to be rude, really I'm not. You just confuse me.

Am I? Have you seen Alabama's last six quarters of football? I'm love the Tide and I'm scared shitless, OU and Mizzou have looked like much more complete teams,

Had to edit my post. Alabama's 3rd quarter seems to be their slowest quarter. It was horrible. THeir 4th quarter where they drove right down the field and added another TD though was good. Their first quarter was quick against Kentucky, then they were lethargic since. Oklahoma to me looks the most complete, but Mizzou? No. Don't let the fact that they gave up just 17 points (with those last 7 coming in the last seconds of the game) fool you. Nebraska's offense is dreadful. Mizzou's defense is nearly non-existant. Trust me. If they don't lock down on defense (same goes for Texas's pass defense), then they might have some trouble later on.

[Ryany]

About Penn State not dominating games:

Joe Paterno has class and is not a Steve Spurrier. He doesn't run the score up if he doesn't need to even if it potentially costs him some votes. Sadly, it probably cost him a national title in 94 when he didn't run up the score against Indiana and the voters dropped PSU from 1 to 2 and never gave them number 1 back even though they went undefeated.

Am I saying they are better than they show? I don't know yet. We'll see the next few weeks. I'm just saying some of their games can appear closer in the box score than they really were.

[Gregorio]

2. Think what you want, but a 1 loss Big XII and SEC champs WOULD get in over an undefeated Penn State team. For a few major reasons. UGA, Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, and Mizzou were all ranked much higher preseason, and have much tougher conferences. Also, as we all know from Florida edging in 2 years ago after smiting Arkansas in Atlanta, those conference title games add a lot of padding to close races. Penn state at what, 12-0, would look like a lesser team than a 12-1 SEC or Big XII champ. 2 losses obviously changes things, but those 1 loss teams from those conferences are simply locks this year.

I don't see that happening. Penn State is not Boise State. Preseason ranks and strength of schedule are outweighed by the human polls, and I don't see an undefeated major conference team getting shunned. Penn State is also not Ohio State...we win our bowl games. The media knows this too.

[Kirin]

Stuff

Dont really care how I sound, simple mistakes dont necessitate being ripped into like that, fanboy on either side or not.

And if you look at my posts post UGA/Bama i have no issues saying indeed Bama outplayed us. Ive been as humbled and serious about admitting it was an honest defeat as possible. But that doesnt change the fact that Bama looked lazy 2nd half in Athens, and lazy most game against Kentucky. Is South Carolina that good...after the meager performance UGA put up there? South Carolina beat Ole Miss, who beat Florida at home. South Carolina must be better than Florida right?

Truthfully, I just don't think you know what you're talking about in a lot of cases. I'm not trying to be rude, really I'm not. You just confuse me.

Bit of a bold statement to make, considering im quoting actual instance of the SEC title game giving Florida a push 2 years ago over how many other teams? Michigan was a 1 loss (granted, not undefeated) Big 10 team that year too...and how hard was a Ohio State/Michigan BCS Title pushed? Any other normal year, id agree that a undefeated Big 10 team would get in no question.

But in this year, its obvious the Big 10 is not the historic juggernaut it normally is, while so many recognize how strong top to bottom the Big XII and SEC are this year. And come early December, those conferences who are ballsy enough to play title games to get rewarded more often than not.

You can disagree, thats fine. I can disagree, thats fine. Calling me ignorant...thats...well, ignorant.

[Mizango]

lolgeorgia.

[Mizango]

Felt like saying that before I head to bed, It gets me in a positive sleep state of mind.

[Tyche]

The pollsters know how hard it is to go into The Shoe and win. The pollsters know how hard it is to go into Camp Randall and pull out a win. Ask ohio state who barely squeaked out a win, and imo, are better now that they were when they were ranked 3rd or whatever. Including this OSU loss, Wisconsin has only lost one other home game since the start of the 2004 season. PSU finishes the season off against a Michigan State team that will be better than their record will reflect. They'll probably lose 3 or 4 games but that is a talented group there. Penn State will easily get in over any one loss team from any conference should they finish undefeated, which is unlikely anyway given the stretch of games coming.

[Akiyama]

Not to mention Wisconsin had what.. an 18 game winning streak at home against the Big 10 competition? Or was it 19? Something like that. I know their Coach had never lost a home game there. Going there to win, even if Wisconsin is having a slightly down year, is still hard to do. Same with going to the Shoe.

As far as the argument about the two year ago thing, Ohio State did pretty much smoke Michigan that year, right? Well, not smoked I guess, but won by 10+. I don't have the box score up and ready to look up. That and there's a huuuge difference in being an undefeated Big 10 Team (Ohio State) and being a 1 loss team that year (Michigan.) Yes. Conference title games can give you an edge, but even with no title game, there is no way a 1 loss/2 loss Big XII/SEC team get into the National Championship game against an undefeated team like Penn State, especially with their road schedule coming up. Florida and Michigan both had 1 loss that year if I remember correctly. (I remember Florida losing to AU @AU with the blocked kick/return for a TD.)

Sorry for saying you don't know what you're talking about. All I meant was I think you were confused about stuff. No hard feelings. =P

[Byrd]

Just got back from Vegas, went 2/2 gambling on sporting events. Bet on Oregon State and USC to cover the spread, which they both did. Should've bet against the Seahawks today, I knew they were going to get their ass kicked. Just couldn't bring myself to do it.

[BarthelloSylph]

LETS GO TAR HEELS

[Bregor]

Alabama's 3rd quarter seems to be their slowest quarter. It was horrible. THeir 4th quarter where they drove right down the field and added another TD though was good. Their first quarter was quick against Kentucky, then they were lethargic since. Oklahoma to me looks the most complete, but Mizzou? No. Don't let the fact that they gave up just 17 points (with those last 7 coming in the last seconds of the game) fool you. Nebraska's offense is dreadful. Mizzou's defense is nearly non-existant. Trust me. If they don't lock down on defense (same goes for Texas's pass defense), then they might have some trouble later on.

I can't argue too much about Mizzou's defense, as I don't get to see a lot of their games where I live (we didn't even get Virginia/Maryland on basic cable - fuck you ESPNU.) In fact most of my info about non-SEC teams comes from reading Rivals and watching Gameday at work. But the fact remains that Alabama's been pretty one-dimensional on offense as of late, and just looks flat. It got so bad on Sunday I thought Verne Lundquist would get bored between snaps and start expounding about how amazing Tim Tebow is.

None of it matters though, the next two weeks get dicey for the Big 12, so opinions about their top five teams are going to change a lot, and whoever comes out of it unscathed is going to look very strong. Also anxious to see if LSU can get through Florida in the Swamp.

P.S. Sup Ryany

[Akiyama]

Yep. Just like the last couple weeks have been with the SEC, knocking them from the Top 10 as they play each other, the Big XII will now experience it, lol.

[Lordender]

i'm not sold on mizzou at all, they havent faced a good defensive team yet.

as for LSU vs florida, LSU better play mistake free football and convert on pass plays when they need to in order to have a chance to win. Florida is going to come out swinging especially after what happened last year.

[Plow]

That terrible Nebraska offense had one good drive against Mizzou.

They literally held them to 10 points for 60 minutes, the 2nd td was with 0 time left.


Nebraska is also averaging about 39 a game, including 30 vs Va Tech.

[Kyo]

How about the Tarheels cracking the top 25 =O Butch Davis has those boys playing some football finally.

At least we agree on something, first time we've been in the top 25 in a long time.

[Stiker]

At least we agree on something, first time we've been in the top 25 in a long time.

Ironically, it's the first time their next opponent, ND, has been 4-1 and unranked. Not saying we deserve it (we sure as hell don't), but I find it quite funny.

Really excited for the game next week. ND has finally figured out we are a passing team and not a friggin' power running team. So I'm hoping we don't run into the same issues we saw against MSU where we ran the ball nowhere for most of the game. UNC has been quality this season, so I'm looking forward to seeing just how much better we have been getting.

Also, Red River Shootout time next week. Finally time to watch OU and Texas play a tough game. Mizzou gets a solid test in OSU as well. Finally time to stop speckulating about how good those three teams are and really see what they are made of.

LSU and Florida should also be a hell of a game as well.

[Akiyama]

UNC has looked really good. I do think they beat ND personally. I still don't think ND is as good as some think they could be. 8-9 wins though this year seems quite possible. God their schedule must be in the Bottom 20, lol.

Plow, I know Mizzou held them to ten points. I said that. I also said the last 7 points were in the final seconds (and I know how meaningless they were), so we agreed on that. I just don't think Nebraska's offense is that good. Not to mention their defense is so shitty, so they were pretty much out of the game and gave up by halftime anyway. Wouldn't you think so? Not trying to make excuses. They did give up 35 points to Virginia Tech. There is no way Virginia Tech should be scoring that many points @Nebraska if they were decent. Agreed?