BG College Football Pick Em / College Football Thread

[Akiyama]

Christ Byrd. I'll just let you type my essays for me.

[octopus]

LOL, I never knew ESPN had text messages interactive Tuesdays. (on ESPN 2)

Ball State vs Miami U - someguy dropped a ball, and at the top of the screen there was some message like "I could have caught that!!!" etc. That was funny ;o

[Plow]

I really would like to see it, I consider myself an amateur BCS scholar and would like to see the rule. Intricate little rules are kind of my bread and butter. I understand Kansas State's fear, they're clearly the poster child for teams getting screwed in the BCS.

Can you find me the ruleset/contract from then? I'll do the research but I can't find the info at all.

I wouldn't want to, either, and I would also like to watch Tech play in a BCS bowl game, as would you. But you don't have the name draw with Tech you do with Ohio State, USC, or Texas.

Still, either Texas or Oklahoma, if not both, are going to be available.

No, it's not, which is part of why I posted the link that followed it. I'll post it again: FOX Sports on MSN - BCSFootball - BCS Selection Procedures Go down to "Team-Selection Procedures," clause 3. I will repost that clause here


Clause 4 goes into the procedure for selecting the rotational bowl order, which comes after the NCG participants have been replaced in their respective bowls, if applicable.

I see, I didn't realize they were separate rules, I thought it had been changed.

You mentioned that Bama was an option for the Fiesta Bowl. They won't be true unless either Florida is the Sugar Bowl already and Bama is an at-large team and not a replacement, or the Sugar Bowl gives the Fiesta Bowl permission to pick Bama, as listed in Clause 3 above. The former doesn't happen unless Florida State beats Florida and then Florida beats Bama in the SEC Champsionship game, and I don't think the latter happens at all if Florida goes to the NCG.

Ya ok, and Sugar might pick first anyway as you pointed out, so it would be Georgia/LSU as the options there most likely instead of Bama, unless Sugar went with one of them.

The Orange Bowl won't have any say in who they get. They have the very last pick in the line, which means that they get the ACC champ vs. the least desirable of the automatic qualifiers. The only way they would get a choice is if all of the bowls above them picked automatic qualifiers over the available at large teams, and considering Utah/Boise St/Ball St and the Big East champ (Cincinnatti?) will be in that mix, Big 12 #2 or Big 10 #2 will certainly go before them.


I guess to clarify my original Big 12 doomsday scenario:
There's going to be 4 open slots this year, and only 5 logical places to get them from. #2 Big 12, #2 SEC, #2 Big Ten, non-Rose Bowl USC, and a non-BCS team. To qualify for an at large, you need to be in the Top 14 in the BCS and have 9 wins, so it seems unlikely that the ACC or Big East would have a second eligible team (ACC has an outside shot at being eligible, I suppose, but not much chance to be selected). If USC wins the Pac-10, there's 4 spots and 4 obvious choices. If not, someone gets left out and it can't be the non-BCS (assuming one ends up in the Top 12) nor can it be the #3 or #4 team in the BCS standings. If Ohio State (or Mich State) ends up playing Oregon State in the Rose Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl is likely going to take USC and probably the #2 team in the Big 12. But I would be just a little bit nervous if I were them that a 10-2 Penn State and Joe Paterno wouldn't be as attractive an option as Texas Tech or Oklahoma.

But for that to even be a consideration, Oregon State and Michigan State have to win out, and the Big 12 couldn't have two teams in the final top four (and the team in the top 4 would have to have won the Big 12 title game). Any of the above seem unlikely to me, much less all 3. But it is possible.

Yeah I meant the Fiesta Bowl would be having that choice, not Orange.

All that being said, there's still four weeks of football left, so when everyone loses twice between now and then and the NCG becomes Ball State vs. Florida State, ignore everything I just said.

I'd totally watch that.

[Plow]

Found something:

If a conference had a runner-up team in the national championship game, its actual champion was not guaranteed a berth in another BCS game.

But that was as of 98, looking through to see if/when that's been changed. If I remember right we knew that OU would go to the nc even with a loss unless the polls intentionally lowered them to avoid it.


FOX Sports on MSN - BCSFootball - BCS Chronology


Edit: yeah, that's basically how it still worked, there've been additions since, if there are 2 teams from a conference ranked 1 and 2, and neither is conference champion, the conference champ won't be eligible. If there's a 1 or 2, and a 3 or 4, and neither is conference champion, the 3 or 4 won't be eligible. But from what I can see they haven't removed the clause that allows a bowl to skip the conference champion for someone else if there's a team from that conference in the championship that's not the champion.

[Gregorio]

Really? You think so? So even with the SEC being down the way it is, you don't think it's better than the Big 10 in terms of who all PSU has beaten? I think Bama is a head above PSU in terms of Schedule Strength and such.

Edit: Just checked the Current SoS up to this past week. Alabama is 59th in SoS, Penn State is 56th, but you've gotta think Bama's SoS will get ranked a little higher after the road game to LSU is put in next week.

Late quote and sheet...just for a question.

Where did you find the SoS info?

[Akiyama]

Googled "2008 College Football Strength of Schedule" and came up with a link I believe to a College Football database that listed the SoS up to that current week.

College Football Polls - CBSSports.com 120, BCS and AP Top 25

And it seems Alabama's SoS dropped a bit due to the added loss to a couple teams. Hrm. Well that's interesting, lol.

[octopus]

And it seems Alabama's SoS dropped a bit due to the added loss to a couple teams. Hrm. Well that's interesting, lol.

Wow, Utah's SOS is pretty good.

[Byrd]

If a conference had a runner-up team in the national championship game, its actual champion was not guaranteed a berth in another BCS game.

Looks like there are two follow up notes:

Similarly if an automatic-qualifying conference had a team ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the BCS standings and a second team ranked No. 3 or No. 4, none of which was the conference champion, the conference champion would be excluded from consideration.

If an automatic-qualifying conference had a team ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 in the BCS standings and a second team ranked either No. 3 or No. 4, neither of which was the conference champion, and the conference champion was ranked No. 5 or lower, the team ranked No. 3 or No. 4 would not be eligible for a berth in the BCS.

It looks like they changed it before the 2003 season so that the conference champion would not be left out, regardless. Oklahoma finished the season #1 in the BCS, and Texas #6. Reading the above, I don't think Kansas State could have been left out in 2003, even if Texas finished #3 or #4. Had the same thing happened in 2002 with Texas @ #3 or #4, they would have been stiffed. I don't think they would ever have had the option to select another school over Kansas State in 2003.

At least that's how I'm reading it, with the information I have available.

Ya ok, and Sugar might pick first anyway as you pointed out, so it would be Georgia/LSU as the options there most likely instead of Bama, unless Sugar went with one of them.

The Sugar normally would go with the SEC runner-up, but I could see them deciding that Texas or Oklahoma is also a pretty attractive option this year. Last year, they weren't going to let Georgia go, since they knew they were getting ratings-black-hole Hawaii. Depending on who the Big East champ is, the Sugar Bowl might be happy with a Texas/Oklahoma vs. West Virginia game, and let the Fiesta pick an SEC team.

Googled "2008 College Football Strength of Schedule" and came up with a link I believe to a College Football database that listed the SoS up to that current week.

Word of warning: college football strength of schedule is extremely subjective, depending on what source you go to. Strength of Schedule is actually considerably more subjective than the actual rankings of the teams themselves.

There are a few different sources of strength of schedule. I've linked CBS and the four BCS computers that publish their SOS (Wolfe and Billingsley don't appear to publish their SOS).

CBS Sportsline
Anderson & Hester (BCS Computer)
Colley Rankings (BCS computer)
Massey Rankings(BCS Computer)
Sagarin (BCS Computer)

Just looking at the five sources above, and picking the two top teams and my alma mater, there's a huge variety in SOS ranking. Each of the three teams listed below has at least one of the above sources that thinks it has had the most difficult schedule (of the three). The below rankings are listed in order of the polls above.

Alabama: 67, 33, 73, 45, 58
Texas Tech: 17, 47, 64, 27, 45
Oregon State: 56, 50, 46, 30, 24

There is some agreement amongst the polls on the number one ranked SOS: Georgia, Virginia, Washington, Virginia, Washington. You might have believed Georgia, but would any objective observer seriously pick an ACC or a Pac-10 team as #1 SOS?

[Akiyama]

Yeah. That's true. I guess it just all depends on where you go.

[Tyche]

Note to self: Forfeit any arguments that Byrd presents against you...you will be shamed.

[Akiyama]

He's taking after me in terms of essay answers. I'm not used to seeing Byrd type out so much. It makes me proud.

[Plow]

Looks like there are two follow up notes:





It looks like they changed it before the 2003 season so that the conference champion would not be left out, regardless. Oklahoma finished the season #1 in the BCS, and Texas #6. Reading the above, I don't think Kansas State could have been left out in 2003, even if Texas finished #3 or #4. Had the same thing happened in 2002 with Texas @ #3 or #4, they would have been stiffed. I don't think they would ever have had the option to select another school over Kansas State in 2003.

At least that's how I'm reading it, with the information I have available.

You're assuming something that's not stated, which is that the conference champion would have to be let in.

The conference champion is *definitely* left out if it was a ridiculous situation like OU beating Tech, but getting screwed by the last bcs poll before conference championship in a 3 way tie, then getting to #1, Tech winning the conference championship and being left out for Texas to be #2 and an OU/Texas nc. Tech would not be allowed in a BCS game then.

It's just a question of if the conference champion has to be let in if it's the 1 or 2 + 3 or 4 situation.

The Sugar normally would go with the SEC runner-up, but I could see them deciding that Texas or Oklahoma is also a pretty attractive option this year. Last year, they weren't going to let Georgia go, since they knew they were getting ratings-black-hole Hawaii. Depending on who the Big East champ is, the Sugar Bowl might be happy with a Texas/Oklahoma vs. West Virginia game, and let the Fiesta pick an SEC team.

If the Fiesta lets them, of course heh. I doubt they'd pass up Bama or Florida though, maybe if it was in an Airline sponsorship ;p



edit: lol watching "top 5 reasons you can't blame Pete Carroll for losing the 06 rose bowl," one of the guys says "yeah I think between the time he lost a game... and then lost another game... gas prices went up about $1.50..."

I think that's actually about right lol

[Byrd]

You're assuming something that's not stated, which is that the conference champion would have to be let in.

I'm not sure why you would assume anything else. It's a summary of changes, not a list of rules year by year. The only exceptions are where multiple non-champion teams from the same conference finish in the Top 4 (in 2002), and in the Top 2 (since then).

The conference champion is *definitely* left out if it was a ridiculous situation like OU beating Tech, but getting screwed by the last bcs poll before conference championship in a 3 way tie, then getting to #1, Tech winning the conference championship and being left out for Texas to be #2 and an OU/Texas nc. Tech would not be allowed in a BCS game then.

I had to reread both documents about three times before realizing what you were saying, and I agree. The only chance any more that a conference champion is left out is that the #1 and #2 ranked teams were from the same conference, but neither was the conference champion.

I could actually see this happening this year if Texas, Oklahoma and Tech all finish in the top few spots at 11-1, then whoever wins the tiebreaker loses the Big 12 championship game, in which case Mizzou would be left out of the BCS. This actually isn't out of the realm of possibility, although the eventual SEC champ would probably need to lose a game before the SEC championship game (and maybe USC).

If the Fiesta lets them, of course heh. I doubt they'd pass up Bama or Florida though, maybe if it was in an Airline sponsorship ;p

That is true. I could see a switch happening, if the Fiesta was tired of Oklahoma and the Sugar was tired of, say, Georgia. Not that Georgia's going to a BCS game this year, though. Oh well.

[Plow]

I'm not sure why you would assume anything else. It's a summary of changes, not a list of rules year by year. The only exceptions are where multiple non-champion teams from the same conference finish in the Top 4 (in 2002), and in the Top 2 (since then).

The way I see it is saying if there's 1, and only 1 non-champion team from a conference in the national championship, no other at large team can be taken from that conference, but not that the champion has to be. It still hasn't changed the statement that "the conference champion is not guaranteed a bcs bowl berth."

I.E. they could skip K-State, but they'd have to skip Texas too.


It's pissing me off that I can't find the info I had then, because it laid out exactly the scenario. It had to do with OU going to the NC I remember, because we thought we were going to have to wait until the bowl selection show to find out, and were surprised and super excited when they invited us right after the game.


oh and yeah I said that crazy scenario all retardedly, but basically it would have to be texas as the champ, not tech, like... OU beats tech, but Texas gets #1 and gets in championship, texas plays like crap and barely wins, tech and OU get ranked 1-2 somehow for the national championship, then texas would be forced out, or yeah, what you said, north team wins and they'd be left out

[Tyche]

UL just got a great big dick in the ass on a terrible spot (that was even put under replay). Commentators spent the next 5 minutes going "what the fuck were they looking at?". Enjoy your cheap ass win headspace.

[Headspace]

Hey, fuck you.

I was actually at work so idk what happened, all I know is we got a W.

edit: I'm from NKY so I like Louisville as opposed to UK, just not when they're playing UC. I'm really rooting for UL in basketball, and hopefully Cronin can get a good group going this year. I also like Xavier, just no when they're playing UC =P

[Tyche]

ULs basketball team is going to be absolutely sick this season. Terrance Williams back, Edgar Sosa, Earl Clark, Mcgee. Only guy we lost (and a huge loss) was Padgett. Incoming 6'8" Jamaican Samardo Samuels. Can't wait to see him in action. Also got a 6'10" Freshman too. Jennings I think. Big East is stacked, but we stand a very good chance at winning it. If we get good play out of Samuels and Jennings, we also stand a good damn chance at a final four and possible championship.

Also, LOL @ UK losing to Virginia Military Institute. Go to UNC next game, should be a complete dismantling. I have few expectations as a UL fan. First, foremost, and most importantly, we destroy UK. 2. Compete in the Big East 3. Finish better than UK in the tourney.

[Headspace]

Pitino's the man. All my friends in HS were all like "Can't spell Pitino without NIT." and I was like "Can't win a championship without Pitino hurr hurr"

[Mizango]

lolmichigan. Anyone watching this game? Muffed punts, 1st down at the NW 10 and fuck it up etc...

Rich Rodiguez and his l337 offense are terrible this year. He will learn than the folks in Ann Arbor are impatient and are used to mildly winning under Carr. Wow man... they are playing dreadful.

[Kyo]

Watching OSU and Illinois Game.