
Originally Posted by
Me
Since two of the drops are 100%, you have to try to guess if it's doing something like the following.
Let's say, like other drops in the game, each item in the pool here has a set rarity value. In this case we'll say about 1.5265% (4/256) because we want to try to give a somewhat equal chance for each item to drop. In order for this to work the system would have to have a predefined priority order for each item that gives one item a SLIGHTLY higher advantage than another.
Let's theorize that specific order is Bodb's Crown, Ea's Dastanas, Freyr's Ledelsens, Phobos's Mask, Phobos's Cuirass, Tsukikazu Haidate, Bodb's Robe.
I made the robe last because that's the piece you are having trouble with.
Now, You kill LBC, it's time to see what you get.
The first of your two guaranteed drops gets randomed for.
In thise case Bodb's Crown at 4/256. However the random came up with a value between 5-256 so NO DROP! Let's go to the next item in the list. Ea's Dastanas. Random number comes up 3! DROP! *YAY* The other items won't even be checked!
Second guaranteed drop. Same process.
Bodb's Crown MISS
Ea's Dastanas MISS
Freyr's Ledelsens MISS
Phobos's Mask MISS
Phobos's Cuirass MISS
Tsukikazu Haidate MISS
Bodb's Robe MISS
(Repeat because we missed and we're supposed to get a drop. Remember we only have 1.5% chance of getting a hit.
Bodb's Crown MISS
Ea's Dastanas MISS
Freyr's Ledelsens MISS
Phobos's Mask MISS
Phobos's Cuirass MISS
Tsukikazu Haidate HIT!
Bodb's Robe **Not checked again because we got a winner**
This is just an idea of why to explain why some items might be more common than other. It's simply just a design flaw that's trying to use existing game mechanics to generate a guaranteed two drops. However, its hard to detect because each item has such a low % of winning before another item, that it's likely that it goes through this random process a few times, statistically missing all 7 items several times and repeating the process until gets a hit. Stastically, you could go through the entire process 13 times and get nothing but misses and get a "guaranteed" hit on the 14th time because of "statistics". However, it could miss every item in 14 cycles, or it could hit the first item in the first cycle.
There would be no way for us to realistically guess which order these items are in even with a really, really really large data set. If anything we might be able to guess which two items would be first. In a huge dataset that proves the order I randomly created here, Double crowns would be the most common item in a huge data set.
This theory itself could be proved if we were able to prove that a specific chariot has a higher double drop value on a specific item for everyone across every server. However, at 4/256*4/256 you are talking about a dataset that can prove something within about 2/100ths of a single percentage point.
So, this sytem, while some what flawed by design, could suggest why your item actually is "technically" more rare. In two cycles of trying to get a hit, there will be 6 other items checked twice, before the one at the bottom (or near the bottom) of the list gets checked twice. That could be your item! QQ