Drop Rate Analysis and Treasure Hunter

[Mierin_Eronaile]

Did some data collection.

THF75/NIN37

Main: Blau Dolch
Off: Thief's Knife
Hands: Assassin's Armlets +1 (Not that I think +1 increases droprate, but yeah thought it should be mentioned)
Same gear equipped during all times.

West Sarutabaruta (s)

Target 1: Crawlers (100 kills)
20/100 (or 24/117, wanted two stacks of threads).

Target 2: Dhalmels (100 kills)
Not sure how you want the data, but guess this will do.
Drop events:
No drop: 41
Hair: 16
Meat: 15
Grass: 2
Femur: 4

Meat + meat: 7
Meat + hair: 6
Meat + femur: 4
Meat + grass: 1

Meat + meat + femur: 2
Meat + meat + hair: 1
Meat + femur + hair: 1


/Mierin

[zantes]

Did some data collection.

THF75/NIN37

Main: Blau Dolch
Off: Thief's Knife
Hands: Assassin's Armlets +1 (Not that I think +1 increases droprate, but yeah thought it should be mentioned)
Same gear equipped during all times.

West Sarutabaruta (s)

Target 1: Crawlers (100 kills)
20/100 (or 24/117, wanted two stacks of threads).

Target 2: Dhalmels (100 kills)
Not sure how you want the data, but guess this will do.
Drop events:
No drop: 41
Hair: 16
Meat: 15
Grass: 2
Femur: 4

Meat + meat: 7
Meat + hair: 6
Meat + femur: 4
Meat + grass: 1

Meat + meat + femur: 2
Meat + meat + hair: 1
Meat + femur + hair: 1


/Mierin

No dhalmel hides?

[Mierin_Eronaile]

That's correct.

[kwontess]

Final TH2 data for dhalmel. It might be useful to finish up bees or birds next since their formula would be probably easier to interpret.

nothing: 58, 52, 41
meat: 14, 19, 20
meat+hide: 0,1,0
meat+hair: 0,2,3
meat+femur: 2,0,9
meatx2: 9,11,6
meatx2+femur: 2, 2,2
meatx2+femur+hide: 1,0,0
meatx2+hair: 1,2,3
meatx2+hair+hide: 1,0,0
meatx2+femur+hair: 1,0,0
hair: 9,9,8
hair+hide: 0,0,1
hair+femur: 0,0,1
hide: 1,0,0
hidex2: 0,0,1
hidex2+hair: 0,0,1
femur: 1,1,3
grass: 0,1,1

I'll do some analysis later, have to head to work now.

[Motenten]

Adding in Kwontess's final numbers, here's the totals for TH2 on dhalmels:

TH2 (hand-compiled)

Savanna Dhalmel (Killed 1000 times)
       29 dhalmel hide                 [Max #: 2]  [Items/Kill:  0.029]  [Drop Rate:   2.50 %]  [% of Drops:   3.64 %]
       79 giant femur                  [Max #: 1]  [Items/Kill:  0.079]  [Drop Rate:   7.90 %]  [% of Drops:   9.91 %]
      510 slice of dhalmel meat        [Max #: 2]  [Items/Kill:  0.510]  [Drop Rate:  38.10 %]  [% of Drops:  63.99 %]
        7 sprig of papaka grass        [Max #: 1]  [Items/Kill:  0.007]  [Drop Rate:   0.70 %]  [% of Drops:   0.88 %]
      172 tuft of dhalmel hair         [Max #: 1]  [Items/Kill:  0.172]  [Drop Rate:  17.20 %]  [% of Drops:  21.58 %]

       Dropped  0 items   482 times ( 48.20 %)
       Dropped  1 items   309 times ( 30.90 %)
       Dropped  2 items   150 times ( 15.00 %)
       Dropped  3 items    48 times (  4.80 %)
       Dropped  4 items    11 times (  1.10 %)

    Number of times each group of items dropped.

      482 [ 48.20 %] -- Nothing
      182 [ 18.20 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat
      101 [ 10.10 %] -- tuft of dhalmel hair
       78 [  7.80 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
       31 [  3.10 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat
       30 [  3.00 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
       20 [  2.00 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
       20 [  2.00 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
       11 [  1.10 %] -- dhalmel hide
       11 [  1.10 %] -- giant femur
        8 [  0.80 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
        4 [  0.40 %] -- sprig of papaka grass
        3 [  0.30 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
        3 [  0.30 %] -- giant femur, tuft of dhalmel hair
        2 [  0.30 %] -- dhalmel hide, tuft of dhalmel hair
        2 [  0.30 %] -- dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide, sprig of papaka grass
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide, tuft of dhalmel hair
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
        1 [  0.10 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, sprig of papaka grass
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, giant femur
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
        1 [  0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
        1 [  0.10 %] -- sprig of papaka grass, tuft of dhalmel hair

All the numbers remain very close to the 700 count totals I used in the earlier post, so I'm not going to refigure stuff.

[shulula]

Here are some charts based on the TH0, TH1 and TH2 data on dhamels.

Data:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3261/...c3f5086d_o.jpg

Drop Kill is the total number of drops over the total number of kills. It is a measure of loot output and can be greater than 100% if you get more total drops than the total mobs killed.

Drop Mob is the chance that a mob will drop anything. It does not take into account what drops or the number of drops.

Drop Groupings:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3228/...c50081cc_o.jpg

Drop Stats:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3139/...62c63cd4_o.jpg

Analysis:
These charts are based on 1000 kills for each level of Treasure Hunter. On a basic level you can see that TH increases the chance that something will drop from a mob (ie the chance that 0 items drops decreases). It also increases the chance that multiple items will drop (2-drop 3-Drop and 4-Drop). Getting 3 and 4 drops is still rare even for Dhamels but TH does increase it.

The distance between Drop Mob and Drop Kill on the second chart is the effect of multiple drops on your loot output. If every mob dropped 1 item, the lines would be identical.

The combination of those two effects, increases the loot output from 24.9% (TH0) to 56.1% (TH1) to 79.7% (TH2). How TH affects each drop, or combination of drops is more complex and we need more analysis.

[Eruantalon]

I usually ghetto farm Dhamels in Bubu with /thf, and I use Kparse. Is that data still needed?

Also was it ever tested if a thf gets on the hate list with hands and knife equipped and then unequipped them if TH4 was still active?

[Motenten]

Eruantalon: sure, any data you have could be useful in comparing against the other results. No idea on the second question.

[Eruantalon]

Bull Dhalmel (Killed 120 times)
       34 dhalmel hide                 [Drop Rate (#):  28.33 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  26.67 %]  [Max #: 2]
       20 giant femur                  [Drop Rate (#):  16.67 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  15.83 %]  [Max #: 2]
      115 slice of dhalmel meat        [Drop Rate (#):  95.83 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  72.50 %]  [Max #: 4]
       10 sprig of papaka grass        [Drop Rate (#):   8.33 %]  [Drop Rate (any):   8.33 %]  [Max #: 1]

       Dropped  0 items    19 times ( 15.83 %)
       Dropped  1 items    47 times ( 39.17 %)
       Dropped  2 items    35 times ( 29.17 %)
       Dropped  3 items    16 times ( 13.33 %)
       Dropped  4 items     2 times (  1.67 %)
       Dropped  5 items     0 times (  0.00 %)
       Dropped  6 items     1 times (  0.83 %)

    Drop set: slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:  34  [ 28.33 %]

    Drop set: Nothing
       Count:  19  [ 15.83 %]

    Drop set: slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:  14  [ 11.67 %]

    Drop set: dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:   9  [  7.50 %]

    Drop set: dhalmel hide
       Count:   9  [  7.50 %]

    Drop set: giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:   8  [  6.67 %]

    Drop set: dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:   4  [  3.33 %]

    Drop set: giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:   3  [  2.50 %]

    Drop set: dhalmel hide, giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:   3  [  2.50 %]

    Drop set: giant femur
       Count:   3  [  2.50 %]

    Drop set: dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat, sprig of papaka grass
       Count:   3  [  2.50 %]

    Drop set: slice of dhalmel meat, sprig of papaka grass
       Count:   3  [  2.50 %]

    Drop set: slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, sprig of papaka grass
       Count:   2  [  1.67 %]

    Drop set: dhalmel hide, sprig of papaka grass
       Count:   1  [  0.83 %]

    Drop set: dhalmel hide, giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:   1  [  0.83 %]

    Drop set: sprig of papaka grass
       Count:   1  [  0.83 %]

    Drop set: dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:   1  [  0.83 %]

    Drop set: giant femur, giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:   1  [  0.83 %]

    Drop set: dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
       Count:   1  [  0.83 %]

Fought on earth water and wind day with waning 33%. I already had saliva on me previously. Mnk/Thf

[Necronus]

My Usual Update .... Maze of Shakrami


TH0

Carnivorous Crawler (Killed 538 times)
       76 spool of silk thread         [Drop Rate (#):  14.13 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  14.13 %]  [Max #: 1]

       Dropped  0 items   462 times ( 85.87 %)
       Dropped  1 items    76 times ( 14.13 %)

    Drop set: Nothing
       Count: 462  [ 85.87 %]

    Drop set: spool of silk thread
       Count:  76  [ 14.13 %]


Maze Scorpion (Killed 157 times)
       49 scorpion claw                [Drop Rate (#):  31.21 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  31.21 %]  [Max #: 1]
       17 scorpion shell               [Drop Rate (#):  10.83 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  10.83 %]  [Max #: 1]
       28 scorpion stinger             [Drop Rate (#):  17.83 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  17.83 %]  [Max #: 1]

       Dropped  0 items    83 times ( 52.87 %)
       Dropped  1 items    56 times ( 35.67 %)
       Dropped  2 items    16 times ( 10.19 %)
       Dropped  3 items     2 times (  1.27 %)

    Drop set: Nothing
       Count:  83  [ 52.87 %]

    Drop set: scorpion claw
       Count:  36  [ 22.93 %]

    Drop set: scorpion stinger
       Count:  12  [  7.64 %]

    Drop set: scorpion claw, scorpion stinger
       Count:   9  [  5.73 %]

    Drop set: scorpion shell
       Count:   8  [  5.10 %]

    Drop set: scorpion shell, scorpion stinger
       Count:   5  [  3.18 %]

    Drop set: scorpion claw, scorpion shell, scorpion stinger
       Count:   2  [  1.27 %]

    Drop set: scorpion claw, scorpion shell
       Count:   2  [  1.27 %]

TH1

Carnivorous Crawler (Killed 523 times)
       81 spool of silk thread         [Drop Rate (#):  15.49 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  15.49 %]  [Max #: 1]

       Dropped  0 items   442 times ( 84.51 %)
       Dropped  1 items    81 times ( 15.49 %)

    Drop set: Nothing
       Count: 442  [ 84.51 %]

    Drop set: spool of silk thread
       Count:  81  [ 15.49 %]


Maze Scorpion (Killed 136 times)
       66 scorpion claw                [Drop Rate (#):  48.53 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  48.53 %]  [Max #: 1]
       18 scorpion shell               [Drop Rate (#):  13.24 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  13.24 %]  [Max #: 1]
       47 scorpion stinger             [Drop Rate (#):  34.56 %]  [Drop Rate (any):  34.56 %]  [Max #: 1]

       Dropped  0 items    37 times ( 27.21 %)
       Dropped  1 items    69 times ( 50.74 %)
       Dropped  2 items    28 times ( 20.59 %)
       Dropped  3 items     2 times (  1.47 %)

    Drop set: scorpion claw
       Count:  39  [ 28.68 %]

    Drop set: Nothing
       Count:  37  [ 27.21 %]

    Drop set: scorpion stinger
       Count:  22  [ 16.18 %]

    Drop set: scorpion claw, scorpion stinger
       Count:  20  [ 14.71 %]

    Drop set: scorpion shell
       Count:   8  [  5.88 %]

    Drop set: scorpion claw, scorpion shell
       Count:   5  [  3.68 %]

    Drop set: scorpion shell, scorpion stinger
       Count:   3  [  2.21 %]

    Drop set: scorpion claw, scorpion shell, scorpion stinger
       Count:   2  [  1.47 %]

Just got the new KParse. Updated the data after a reparse with new groupings.

[Jkun]

Having just skimmed the thread, I'd like to ask what people's opinions are on a couple of things.

My LS has a lot of members who having a huge raging hard-on for:

1) THF pt killshot.
2) THF killshot.

So much so that we have every melee disengage shit at 3~1%~ and let the THF kill. Can anyone actually prove this wrong? I'm pretty sure SE mentioned THF killshot didn't affect any drops, but it gets annoying being blamed or watching someone get blamed for killing a mob when a THF "should" have killed it.

So yes. Discuss.

[Zhais]

Having just skimmed the thread, I'd like to ask what people's opinions are on a couple of things.

My LS has a lot of members who having a huge raging hard-on for:

1) THF pt killshot.
2) THF killshot.

So much so that we have every melee disengage shit at 3~1%~ and let the THF kill. Can anyone actually prove this wrong? I'm pretty sure SE mentioned THF killshot didn't affect any drops, but it gets annoying being blamed or watching someone get blamed for killing a mob when a THF "should" have killed it.

So yes. Discuss.

you're right, I do believe SE answered at a fanfest or questionnaire that killshot does not affect drop rate

[Necronus]

you're right, I do believe SE answered at a fanfest or questionnaire that killshot does not affect drop rate

Does it really matter what a SE rep says? (For clarity I do believe SE's quote about TH, but still, proof never hurts)

Phalanx II is stronger than regular Phalanx so it’s also very handy when you solo.

Treasures of Aht Urghan is designed for low level players

[Waraji]

Also was it ever tested if a thf gets on the hate list with hands and knife equipped and then unequipped them if TH4 was still active?

I too have been thinking of this while writing my new spellcast.xml for THF, would benefit from knowing if so or if not.

In speculation of this, I do think that the "th4" would stay active. But at the same time, the Highest TH of any given THF in a party or alliance, will take precedence over lower level TH. This was said in an interview a while back iirc, by which I took, If one activated "TH4" on a mob, and unequip, upon rentering the hate line, you would then activate the highest TH in that given party or alliance after unequipting, which would then be "TH3 or 2".

It would have to be tested in a group of drops done with "TH4" and then same sample group with activating "TH4" and unequipting to "TH3 or 2". I think the results would show very well if it stays active or not. Preferably use highest and lowest extremes of TH possibly.

Ill try and start a test of this asap, unless someone has already shown statistics on it.

[arshesney]

You could test with Gilfinder and AF2 legs, as it seem that the mechanics are similar between them: kill gigas in Qufim without legs equipped ever, with legs always equipped and unequipping legs before killing.
I lack THF AF2 or I'd do the testing myself

[shulula]

Here is a chart of the drop rate for individual items.

Data:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3281/...64e17897_o.jpg

Chart:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3040/...694f60bc_o.jpg

It seems that Treasure Hunter affects some drops more than others. Meat went from a drop rate lower than Hair in TH0 (10.0% vs. 11.3%) to almost three times the drop rate of Hair for TH2 (51.0% vs. 17.2%). For the other items you can see a variable increase.

[Enedin]

Here is a chart of the drop rate for individual items.

Data:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3281/...64e17897_o.jpg

Chart:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3040/...694f60bc_o.jpg

It seems that Treasure Hunter affects some drops more than others. Meat went from a drop rate lower than Hair in TH0 (10.0% vs. 11.3%) to almost three times the drop rate of Hair for TH2 (51.0% vs. 17.2%). For the other items you can see a variable increase.

As I've said before, with low drop rate items (why do you think I test items with 25-45% drop rate), you're going to need a LOT more than 1000 kills to get a clear view. Same with a 90% drop item than a 10% drop item, they are extreme values, and extreme values will give skewed results unless you do a higher number of tests.

It's a case of "does it drop or not?", which is a Binomial Distribution. If you're familiar with that (or the normal distribution for that matter), you know that what I'm saying is true. Take this for example:

(1) The average IQ is 100. Out of a group of 100 people, the chances of finding someone with 95-105 IQ are fairly big.
(2) Out of a group of 100 people, finding someone with 135-145 IQ will be smaller.

Even though the sample size was the same twice, there's a far bigger chance that you'll find a suitable person from (1) than from (2). If, however, you up the sample size to 10000, the chances of finding the person with that IQ from (2) will be increased.

The chances of your awkward results (TH works differently for different drop rates, which is quite tedious to implement) being true are quite slim because of the low sample size. It's the same reason I didn't post my Bugard TUSK results, since 500 mobs with a 5% drop rate item showed nothing, in fact TH0 gave me MORE drops than TH1. Go figure.

I know why I chose my Stirges, Tigers and Bugards, because they have high (25-45%) drop rates, which would require me to kill less monsters to get an accurate (90%) result. Using the previous logic, TH0 would require more kills for the same accuracy, whereas TH1 and TH2 would require less.

I know there's a program that can give you an estimate on the accuracy of your results based on the expected drop rate. Wish I could find it now...

The ONLY thing that's useful in there is the Meat, which has a high drop rate (still only 10% with TH0, too low really). Hair will start to show more accurate results with a 1000 more mobs, but the others are too low for anyone to make any assumptions about them.

[shulula]

I'm not saying that TH works differently for different items, but that it affects some more than others. All the data shows that TH increases the drop rates, but by how much varies per item.

I don't think the idea that TH affects specific items differently is that hard to implement. Sky NM Seals drop at 100%, and TH can't make 2 drop so it affects it differently than say Dhamel Meat in this data set. This may be true even on the same mob. Many people have stated that a TH increases synthesis item drops on gods, but still can not make 2 seals drop. That points to the fact that it affects the items differently, or rather it affects some items and not others.

As far as the sample size, I'm sure that no matter how many kills you have, someone will say the sample size is too small. The question of whether the sample is large enough, depends on the the purpose of the sample. What is it trying to measure.

If your question is "What is the drop rate of x item?" then your sample size is determined by your margin of error. Someone can always say your sample size is too small if you have a margin of error of +/- 3% and they want +/- 1%.

If your question is "Does TH have an effect on x item drop rate?" The sample size may be very different. In this case you need to show that the change in drop rate is outside the margin of error. Basically that the change in rate is not due to randomness. If an item goes from 10% +/- 3% at TH0 to 70% +/- 3% at TH2, do you really need a bigger sample?

If your question is "What is the effect of TH on drop rates?", your sample may be different still.

The reason I was hesitant to display data in this way is because of the predisposition to make the data fit the existing theory. The existing theory is that TH (and by extension TH+1 items) increase the drop rate by some fixed percent. If the data does not confirm this theory, then the first reaction is that the data is deficient in some way. The easiest one is that the sample size is too small, even though required sample size can vary drastically depending on many factors.

To me, the first set of charts answers the question of how TH works perfectly well.

Treasure Hunter affects drop rates in two ways. First, it increases the chance that something will drop. Second, it increases the chance that multiple items will drop.

I believe you will find this to be true as long as multiple items can drop and there is a variance in drop rates. (The mob doesn't drop 1 item 100% of the time.) Looking for an exception to this may be more useful to our knowledge of Treasure Hunter.

[shulula]

Let me just explain the two statements I made about treasure hunter and its effects on drop rates. Both of these statements are represented in this graph.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3199/...250b59ff_o.jpg

1. TH increases the chance that something will drop. (Red Line)

This is the same as saying it decreases the chance that nothing will drop. This is recorded in the 0-drop rate. This does not take into account what drops or how many items drop. The red line in this graph captures this. For 1000 kills the margin of error is just about +/- 3%. The change from TH0 to TH1 to TH2 are all greater than the margin of error.

2. TH increases the chance that multiple items can drop. (Green Line)

The blue line is the total number of items dropped. The green line is distance between the blue and red lines, which represents the effect of multiple drops. If a mob always dropped one item, then the blue line would be the same as the red line and the green would stay at zero. You can see that as you add more TH the distance between the lines increases. That increase is greater than the margin of error.

This is a narrow way of looking at Treasure Hunter, but it also makes it more applicable. If we can find situations where these two statements don't apply, it would increase our knowledge of how TH works. Quest NMs, for example, with 1 drop at 100% are not affected by TH. But are there any mobs where adding TH decreases their drop rate? Or decreases the frequency of multiple drops?

[Enedin]

I see what you mean, it's a nice theory. I'll try to apply it to my personal testing and see how that works out, but I have to go now lol.