/randoming before lotting

[Thistle]

Can someone tell me anything about this new trend to /random before one lots on something? Two people in my Dynamis LS insisted upon doing it tonight "so that their lots would be better", and had the gall to tell off the LS leader when they were told to stop doing it.

Is this the latest myth? The new 'facing direction while crafting counts~!' crap? Is there any basis at all for it? (I'd strongly assume not, since it'd be all over the boards here if so.)

[altwight]

players are entitled to do whatever they believe may work. your LS leader is an asshole for telling them to stop. regardless if it was stupid in the first place.

[Thistle]

players are entitled to do whatever they believe may work. your LS leader is an asshole for telling them to stop. regardless if it was stupid in the first place.

Going to disagree with you there. /randoming is highly annoying, especially since you can't filter it out. The extra spam isn't needed at any time, let alone during events.

Either way, that's not the point of the post. Thanks for your opinion on it anyway?

[Zumi]

Some people think some variation of this: if they keep randoming till they random a low number then the next number they random should be high cause they just got a low lot.

But that is just a form of gambler's fallacy, and has no effect on the outcome of your lot.

[Apelila]

http://www.bluegartr.com/forum/showthread.php?t=61246

Probably based off that, where people discovered that if /random sometimes a high follows a low.

[Suiram]

I used to do this a long time ago. I'd /random until it landed between like 325 and 400, and then lot for a high lot. I'd get 800+ on my lots about 20% of the time that way.

[Fiye]

Alright, this is utter crap.

There is no such thing as a law of averages. Just because you get low rolls often doesn't mean you'll get a high roll the next time.

You have the same chance of getting a 0-200 roll on something as you would if you gotten 0-200 the last 5, 10, or 100 times.

The /randoming stuff is utter bullshit.

[Ruiner]

I used to do this a long time ago. I'd /random until it landed between like 325 and 400, and then lot for a high lot. I'd get 800+ on my lots about 20% of the time that way.

LOL

[Amele]

I used to do this a long time ago. I'd /random until it landed between like 325 and 400, and then lot for a high lot. I'd get 800+ on my lots about 20% of the time that way.

beautiful.

I did a similar thing, but I got 600+ 40% of the time!

[malak]

I used to do this a long time ago. I'd /random until it landed between like 325 and 400, and then lot for a high lot. I'd get 800+ on my lots about 20% of the time that way.

I lol'ed irl.

[LinktheDeme]

I thought I was the only person that caught onto it. I feel less special now

[Silenka]

Player1> Ok let's /random for armband guys.

Dice Roll! Player2 rolls 935!

Player2> aw shit, I just wasted my good lot lol, now I'm never gonna get that askar body!


See it all the time.

[Sylvrdragon]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

And thus, I shatter the dreams of BCNM60 goers everywhere ("I'm 0/80, a K-club HAS to be coming up soon!!!" "WRONG!"). If the club is a 1% drop rate, then your probability AVERAGES at 1 in every 100 attempts. That's not to say that you might not go 0/200 or 2/2 or 0/1000 then 10 in a row.

Probability theory says that sure, you're lots will EVENTUALLY average out to 500, but factoring in any past rolls will do absolutely nothing to determine WHEN they may even out.

[Silenka]

Probability is an assbasket.

Ohwait this isn't sash, ohshi-

[Hanyoko]

I play some table top RPGs and the strange things people do with their dice are hilareous. (in this case we are using D6) some put 6 facing up, some put 1 facing up, some put 6 facing the GM, etc... etc...

As long as it does not create a distraction for others, let people do what they want. (though it seems /random in the case does create a distraction).

Though, since this is a group event and they are focusing so much on 'getting a good random/lot' one might question how much focus/effort they are putting towards the objective.

[Acturus]

You know what? Use whatever superstitions get you through the day. Believe in placebo, because placebo believes in you!

[Hanyoko]

You know what? Use whatever superstitions get you through the day. Believe in placebo, because placebo believes in you!

My placebos taste like grey.

[Amele]

I play some table top RPGs and the strange things people do with their dice are hilareous. (in this case we are using D6) some put 6 facing up, some put 1 facing up, some put 6 facing the GM, etc... etc...

As long as it does not create a distraction for others, let people do what they want. (though it seems /random in the case does create a distraction).

Though, since this is a group event and they are focusing so much on 'getting a good random/lot' one might question how much focus/effort they are putting towards the objective.

dice are a different story; (especially six-sided dice) because they are easy to manipulate.

if you roll in more or less the same manner each time and don't make a good roll (or get a pretty consistent roll pattern) the initial state of the die in your hand very much does matter.

the more sides a die has, the less true this is, because the harder it is to get a consistent roll.

[Gaea]

I've always believed that the lotting for items was actually done the moment the item dropped and lotted out to presort after 5 minutes. Lotting just reveals the presort lot and only drops to anyone who hasn't passed or "lotted". One of the things that makes me believe this is true is because if I bring up treasure pool and then cast my lot. My "?" in the lotting pool is replaced way before it shows up in the chat log.

With that in mind, it might even be possible to view the presort values if they are in memory when an item drops or if SE really doesn't send us the value until the lot is actually cast.

[Amele]

I've always believed that the lotting for items was actually done the moment the item dropped and lotted out to presort after 5 minutes. Lotting just reveals the presort lot and only drops to anyone who hasn't passed or "lotted". One of the things that makes me believe this is true is because if I bring up treasure pool and then cast my lot. My "?" in the lotting pool is replaced way before it shows up in the chat log.

With that in mind, it might even be possible to view the presort values if they are in memory when an item drops or if SE really doesn't send us the value until the lot is actually cast.

you know that stuff appears in the treasure pool way before the chat log gets to it too right? (and that you take damage way before it appears in the chat log too)

the values aren't stored in memory. if they were we'd have discovered them when people developed the autolotting and autosorting plugins for windower.