/randoming before lotting

[Shuemue]

I used to do this a long time ago. I'd /random until it landed between like 325 and 400, and then lot for a high lot. I'd get 800+ on my lots about 20% of the time that way.

If posts were like relic weapons, that was a crit triple dmg proc if ever I saw one

[Gaea]

you know that stuff appears in the treasure pool way before the chat log gets to it too right? (and that you take damage way before it appears in the chat log too)

the values aren't stored in memory. if they were we'd have discovered them when people developed the autolotting and autosorting plugins for windower.

Yeah, I kind figured they'd have been discovered by now, but some stuff seems to still elude them so it was a possibility if they weren't even looking. Either way, I still think the values are taken care of (at least on the server) the moment an item drops and all we're doing is revealing the value and excluding people who don't lot when it sorts. All in all, there's no way to test this as it's all done server side.

Whatever the case is, I'm a 1,000,000,000% sure that "buffing your lot" is utter nonsense ;/

[Amele]

Yeah, I kind figured they'd have been discovered by now, but some stuff seems to still elude them so it was a possibility if they weren't even looking. Either way, I still think the values are taken care of (at least on the server) the moment an item drops and all we're doing is revealing the value and excluding people who don't lot when it sorts. All in all, there's no way to test this as it's all done server side.

Whatever the case is, I'm a 1,000,000,000% sure that "buffing your lot" is utter nonsense ;/

1) why bother pre-cycling all those random numbers if you don't need to, and 2) you're right, it's nonsense* but because of how random number generators work, not because the lots are pre-determined


*unless you begin with the premise that SE's RNG is solvable.

[Spekkio]

I used to do this a long time ago. I'd /random until it landed between like 325 and 400, and then lot for a high lot. I'd get 800+ on my lots about 20% of the time that way.

late to the party, but would read again. gold star, 3 points, etc.

[Therin]

This is just someone's way of politely telling you that they suck at math.

[Tinoretetito]

I've always believed that the lotting for items was actually done the moment the item dropped and lotted out to presort after 5 minutes. Lotting just reveals the presort lot and only drops to anyone who hasn't passed or "lotted". One of the things that makes me believe this is true is because if I bring up treasure pool and then cast my lot. My "?" in the lotting pool is replaced way before it shows up in the chat log.

With that in mind, it might even be possible to view the presort values if they are in memory when an item drops or if SE really doesn't send us the value until the lot is actually cast.

What about people who aren't in the party when the item drops, and get invited later? For that matter, what about people who aren't even logged in when the item drops, then log in, get invited, and lot?

[Zhais]

I still think the values are taken care of (at least on the server) the moment an item drops and all we're doing is revealing the value and excluding people who don't lot when it sorts.

no

[Necronus]

Now I'm not defending any kind of theory here, I just want to point out that while the Gambler's Fallacy applies to real life (i.e. flipping a coin is truly random), it doesn't always apply to computing.

Since we're in an MMO where an insane number of random numbers are drawn and an insane number of seed values are available all SE needs is a random number generator that evenly covers the spectrum without being truly random. Heck, it might even be uneven if SE was lazy or had a crappy algorithm who knows.

Now there's several ways force evenness, the first being just simply a counter just count from 0-999 and pretend its random. The second is intelligent padding. Just as a Vegas slot machine must eventually force its odds, so might an MMO force certain numbers if their ratio is falling. There's other ways, but I'm not here to write a novel.

Now, I'm not saying SE did any of this but I'd place my money on either A) they probably just used a basic rand() function seeded on time or B) the counter method above. SE would likely not waste their time doing anything more complicated.

[Amele]

Now I'm not defending any kind of theory here, I just want to point out that while the Gambler's Fallacy applies to real life (i.e. flipping a coin is truly random), it doesn't always apply to computing.

Since we're in an MMO where an insane number of random numbers are drawn and an insane number of seed values are available all SE needs is a random number generator that evenly covers the spectrum without being truly random. Heck, it might even be uneven if SE was lazy or had a crappy algorithm who knows.

Now there's several ways force evenness, the first being just simply a counter just count from 0-999 and pretend its random. The second is intelligent padding. Just as a Vegas slot machine must eventually force its odds, so might an MMO force certain numbers if their ratio is falling. There's other ways, but I'm not here to write a novel.

Now, I'm not saying SE did any of this but I'd place my money on either A) they probably just used a basic rand() function seeded on time or B) the counter method above. SE would likely not waste their time doing anything more complicated.

a hardware RNG hashed into a 0-999 range is hardly complicated and would completely wreck both of your theories.


that said, they could also do a simple rand with unique seed based on number of packet requests since server up, which would also be almost impossible to break in a predictable manner (assuming the rand is any good).

and considering you can get (for free) an algorithm, here, that has a cycle time on the order of magnitude of 10 quattuordecillion (to give you an idea of the magnitude we're talking about here, if we were to generate 30,000,000,000(30b) random numbers a second, it would take 3 trillion centuries before a single seed would cycle to a repeating pattern.

obviously, a software RNG is only as good as its seeding system. but with a software RNG like that, you would only need to seed the RNG during boot up and you'd have good variance.

[LinktheDeme]

What about people who aren't in the party when the item drops, and get invited later? For that matter, what about people who aren't even logged in when the item drops, then log in, get invited, and lot?

Or the people that lot drop party and lot again. Your examples werent concrete enough this one is just like WTF are you thinking Gaea can you stoop to a new level a dumb? ;o

[Spekkio]

PRNG can be controlled if you know the current position in the PRNG table and the contents of the table. seed is enveloped in the current position b/c the current position is a function of seed and prior random numbers generated. we can see this exploited in the echo drops>7 flush combo from ff6. this, however, depends upon manipulating the current position which is impossible when hundreds of thousands of random numbers are generated by other people every second. given that, you will invariably have insufficient control (much less knowledge) of the PRNG to be able to manipulate it, making it effectively random.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRNG

[bombard]

I have a 95% chance of lotting a 50 or under when I'm lotting against other people.
I have a 100% chance of lotting a high 900 when lotting uncontested.

Anyone who knows me, knows this is the truth. I think I've won one or two things when lotting against 2 or more people for an item in my ~5 years of FFXI.

but as for the OP, uhh -- if a couple of people are /randoming before they lot, I don't see how that's all that distracting. I've tried /randoming, i've tried eating 4leaf clovers, I've tried eating lucky eggs, I've tried standing in the SE direction during new moon on darksday between the game hours of 00:00 - 00:03 -- but random is what it is -- random.

[Hanyoko]

Most likely the random number is generated server side. Everyone on the whole server probabaly pulls their random numbers from the same function. So 'pre /random' does nothing cause there could be 0-infinity other randoms generated between your /random and actually lotting. To give each player their own RNG would be more implementation work then its worth.

[Alistaire]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Press_Y...Michael_Larson

Maybe they've figured out the pattern!

[Siralin]

players are entitled to do whatever they believe may work. your LS leader is an asshole for telling them to stop. regardless if it was stupid in the first place.

Because spamming /random during DYNAMIS isn't distracting or anything.

[Gaea]

Or the people that lot drop party and lot again. Your examples werent concrete enough this one is just like WTF are you thinking Gaea can you stoop to a new level a dumb? ;o

Um, what? I'd just assume a lot was assigned to them as soon as they entered the party. What's wrong with that? I'm sorry I don't support your "buffing" lot theory. I don't think anyone does. It's crazy superstition but whatever floats your boat.

[Izzy]

Um

Please
Stop
Fucking
Posting
Poof

Every god damn thread you post in, you make a statement, then jump into fucking super tiger cat defensive mode. It's like you enjoy explaining yourself to everyone on every forum all day.

[Alistaire]

Um

Please
Stop
Fucking
Posting
Poof

Every god damn thread you post in, you make a statement, then jump into fucking super tiger cat defensive mode. It's like you enjoy explaining yourself to everyone on every forum all day.

This.

I'd just assume a lot was assigned to them as soon as they entered the party

So it's not even just what Izzy said, you don't just jump into threads, make statements, then get "super defensive"... you make statements like that. Assigned lots as you enter party? If that's how your logic works you need to be told (again) your logic fails hard. Please for the sake of everyone on this board understand that for whatever reason, the way you think is really far out there and has no place being posted as some kind of advice to others.

[Spekkio]

Um, what? I'd just assume a lot was assigned to them as soon as they entered the party. What's wrong with that? I'm sorry I don't support your "buffing" lot theory. I don't think anyone does. It's crazy superstition but whatever floats your boat.

zone=lot reset too. it's irrelevant anyway, you lot, it is what it is. let's move on. oh, and the michael larson reference gets another internet win. nice obscure reference. i approve. ^^

[Alistaire]

zone=lot reset too. it's irrelevant anyway, you lot, it is what it is. let's move on. oh, and the michael larson reference gets another internet win. nice obscure reference. i approve. ^^

You ever read the aftermath? I did just today after posting that. Talk about ending on a bad note. (tl;dr version: invested a lot of his winnings in what ended up being a scam, getting obsessed with various get-rich schemes, getting most of his winnings robbed from him, losing his wife, and dying of head/neck cancer @ age 49 while "on the run from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission".)