do you care about the moon, day and direction?

[Thistle]

About the only thing I refuse to do is craft while weather is up, especially like A.U. whitegate's wind weather destroying so many of my synths. Might be superstition there, but that's me and my experience.

About four years ago, back when few people knew all that much about crafting, I had wondered if weather had any effect on crafting. I did about 300 synths in wind weather and 300 not in weather (all the same synth, using wind crystal) and I saw no pattern or difference between the two. While I hadn't 100% controlled for moon or day of the week (I did all 600 synths in one sitting, zoning back and forth between Canyon/Bubu to get weather or no weather), I was comfortable enough to feel like there was no relation.

Yeah, 600 synths isn't a big enough sample size, but gobbiebags were smaller back then and that was the amount I could bring with me to do. (And even then, I had to have a LS person run me out a ton more crystals in the middle of it.)

[Acturus]

When i started high end CC i used to craft on New Moon Windsday and went 1/11 on Mahatma Hpl (omgrite?). After which i listened to some of BG's crafters who completely dismissed the idea of Moon phases and began synthing randomly. I'll tell you i've gone 0/120 on several T0's overall since then. You can read whatever you want from this, no-one's wrong because no-one is right here, from my experiences i might start waiting untill new moon again...why not?

It CANNOT hurt to synth when YOU want to, listening to a handful of crafters bitching because they've gone 0/12873980 on New/Full/whogivesafuck Moon has no relation to you. Synth what you like, where you like, when you like - if people want to call you out for synthing when you feel comfortable, screw them. It's that simple.

I don't think the problem is with what crafter's believe. The problem is that there are morons who pass it off as proven fact to other people, when it is neither proven nor fact.

The world would be a lot better of Joe Crafter admitted that crafting under certain superstitious rules was his personal belief, but most Joes forget that part. The perpetuation of unproven opinion as fact is terrible way to convey information.

If you think about it logically, discarding an idea which is somewhat 'un-proovable' is just as stupid as saying it's true...so it's absolutely moronic to disregard someones' theory on moon phases.

I'm pretty sure the people who discard the idea do so because there is no significant evidence to support the theory.

It's not 'un-proovable', it just can't be proven. If it can't be proven after 5 years, then there is either A) No effect, or B) No significant effect.

[mackerel]

It's not 'un-proovable', it just can't be proven. If it can't be proven after 5 years, then there is either A) No effect, or B) No significant effect.

Enmity was unproven for 6 years until Kaeko and friends found the base unit. A few months later, the entire system was solved.

The problem with testing crafting directions is there are so many other proposed variables with more significant effects, it's impossible to isolate direction in a meaningful test... unless we coordinate something ridiculous like 1000 level 1 mithra from san'doria with 0.0 woodworking, 125 facing each direction, attempting arrowwood lumber at the exact same time. And that doesn't figure in some of the more obscure theories, like crystal/guild affinity based on character creation time.

If crafting is ever solved, direction will not be the first piece we figure out.

[Hogie]

Although i do not have any proof as i don't have screen shots and or log pictures or what not, but i can tell you the information comes from a very reliable source.

A bot was wrote a long time ago to test things like this and it did show that HQ rate does have some sort of... better time if you will. When this time is was never proven but they did show that HQs have a time they will HQ. Now your asking how would a bot show this?

What the bot did was synth a certain recipe (i think it was a tier 1? dont know though) and just synth until it got a HQ. When it got a HQ, it would then glitch synth 4 more synths back to back (without any synth time) and the next 4 synths would be 3 or 4 HQs almost all the time. Now out of this test they found that there was kind of like a.... "HQ window" if you will, but they couldn't find any strong evidence on what or when that window would come in to place.



EDIT : I talk to this source and he said it was fine to mention more about it

The source is Starhawk (dev of Windower) and it was a bot that he wrote back in ACTools days. They had run test and it showed that HQs, if dont withing seconds of each other, will HQ again and again. How that window is decided was unknown though.

He has also mentioned that he has no bot like this anymore and does not plan on writing one so dont bother asking.

[Viviton]

Although i do not have any proof as i don't have screen shots and or log pictures or what not, but i can tell you the information comes from a very reliable source.

A bot was wrote a long time ago to test things like this and it did show that HQ rate does have some sort of... better time if you will. When this time is was never proven but they did show that HQs have a time they will HQ. Now your asking how would a bot show this?

What the bot did was synth a certain recipe (i think it was a tier 1? dont know though) and just synth until it got a HQ. When it got a HQ, it would then glitch synth 4 more synths back to back (without any synth time) and the next 4 synths would be 3 or 4 HQs almost all the time. Now out of this test they found that there was kind of like a.... "HQ window" if you will, but they couldn't find any strong evidence on what or when that window would come in to place.



EDIT : I talk to this source and he said it was fine to mention more about it

The source is Starhawk (dev of Windower) and it was a bot that he wrote back in ACTools days. They had run test and it showed that HQs, if dont withing seconds of each other, will HQ again and again. How that window is decided was unknown though.

He has also mentioned that he has no bot like this anymore and does not plan on writing one so dont bother asking.

This is interesting mainly because one day (a long time ago) me and a friend were synthing for GP, the item was green ribbons (i think)...now i'm scowering for the SS but basically we both HQ'd within 2 seconds of finishing the craft (i.e when he HQ'd, providing it was timed within 2 seconds than mine HQ'd).

I wrote this off really as coincidence, but it happened several times iirc so idk...probably just a coincidence. However, something this simple must have been tried and tested previously? all it takes is 2 crafters~

[Hogie]

Starhawk has confirmed to me that it was proven, only reason it was never publicly debated is it is sooooooo hard to determine how and when this was going to happen. Only way i could see it happen is having say 3 or 4 crafters, all the same craft level and everything crafting stuff a half second or 1 second apart from each other and see what happens. If you start to see HQs from all of them at the same time then maybe it will give us a better idea who knows

[tymora]

First, go to the sticky posted in crafting, second craft for more than 5 minutes. The reason no one can confirm is because for every wackjob who says they faced a direction at a certain moonphase we have 2-3 other people who didn't do a goddam thing and ended up with more T0's despite the fact. Where is Aurik to cockslap people when you need him.

I laugh at people like you. Why do you need people like Aurik to cockslap people? Because you yourself can only base your beliefs on other people's results and have done positively nothing to progress on the subject.

Or perhaps you have? Why not post your 10000* samples on why this is a superstition?
I don't have 10000* samples, but I do have ~2000 dutifully recorded in every detail I can think of. I can't prove anything yet so there is no point in sharing it. ( And honestly even if I managed to prove something, I will only share it when I quit ). I doubt you can either. Over the data collection, I have seen recurring streaks of both good/bad HQs. I have no clue why they occur though. Ever seen close to 50% HQ T2 rates for days on end? How about close to 5%? Then the streaks abruptly come to an end? It is hard to believe that I can HQ (or fail to HQ) so much on consecutive crafting sessions just plainly on /random. Therefore I have always believed there is something more to it. Overall however, my rates are extremely close to the established averages.

Why has it been hard to prove anything? You're right on the 2-3 people who didn't do a goddamn thing and you're probably one of them. That is to record data in an orderly manner to prove/disprove something with it. Out of the handful who actually does, how many of those handful actually recorded the data in the meaningful way?

Put it simply, if you didn't do any work on this subject, you don't have any right to put down anyone on what they say...period.

Aurik did his homework and wrote his crafting guide. Note he said "absolutely zero data" to support the idea instead of just saying those who use the idea are idiots.

*10000 is just a large figure without a statistical basis.

[tymora]

Starhawk has confirmed to me that it was proven, only reason it was never publicly debated is it is sooooooo hard to determine how and when this was going to happen. Only way i could see it happen is having say 3 or 4 crafters, all the same craft level and everything crafting stuff a half second or 1 second apart from each other and see what happens. If you start to see HQs from all of them at the same time then maybe it will give us a better idea who knows

There is likely to be a /random factor still. I am thinking that even if the mythical HQ time exists, it will only boost HQ rates rather than give an absolute HQ during that time. So you won't be able to prove much with 3-4 only.

[tymora]

The factors I am tracking:

Potential Factors:
-----------------
Date & Time - (Time of Day/Day of Month/Month of Year)
Elemental Staves - Suggested before
Bar-spells - Based on the stats on the crafting equips
Zone & Weather - Suggested before, and yes, I walked all the way to Cloisters before. But then I got lazy. (Got a belt for that)
Direction - Suggested before
Moon phase and phase element - Suggested before

~13 potential factors in all. (I'll retain the last 3 I am tracking)

Most are probably useless but one can never be too sure. If I am going to do it, might as well track it to as much details as possible. It only takes an extra minute or two. Of course it complicates matters a whole lot, but you can't really say what you have is accurate until you exhaust all possible avenues.

And I don't do meaningless synths just for the sake of collecting data though. No time for that, so don't expect any results from my side. Frankly, this is more for personal use.

Like what has been said umpteen times by multiple crafters, keep track of your own results and believe what you like. For all you know, you may need to get hit by a comet in order to HQ.

[Thistle]

This is interesting mainly because one day (a long time ago) me and a friend were synthing for GP, the item was green ribbons (i think)...now i'm scowering for the SS but basically we both HQ'd within 2 seconds of finishing the craft (i.e when he HQ'd, providing it was timed within 2 seconds than mine HQ'd).

I wrote this off really as coincidence, but it happened several times iirc so idk...probably just a coincidence. However, something this simple must have been tried and tested previously? all it takes is 2 crafters~

I see this a whole lot. I craft bolts for money, as do other people. Generally a group of us stand around the quivering NPC to work. It's rather wacky to see 3-4 people all HQing, NQing, and breaking at the same time.

However, I classify this under the RL "full moon makes people do crazy things... just look how many more people go to the hospital then!" type of thing. People remember when the moon is full, they don't remember it as well when it's a quarter or three-quarters, so they're assuming a relationship is there just because they're remembering it better. I remember the times when groups of us HQ or break at once, the times we don't isn't memorable, so...

[Hogie]

There is likely to be a /random factor still. I am thinking that even if the mythical HQ time exists, it will only boost HQ rates rather than give an absolute HQ during that time. So you won't be able to prove much with 3-4 only.

I totally agree. I dont think there is ever a guaranteed time to HQ, but what Starhawk did was prove (for himself really) that there was in fact some sort of a factor in crafting a HQ and it wasnt 100% random. I have never done any solid testing myself for this as i really just dont have enough time to try it. I do believe that there is a factor in crafting, but exactly what it is i think will stay unknown till times end.

[Furoris]

I have seen recurring streaks of both good/bad HQs. I have no clue why they occur though. Ever seen close to 50% HQ T2 rates for days on end? How about close to 5%? Then the streaks abruptly come to an end? It is hard to believe that I can HQ (or fail to HQ) so much on consecutive crafting sessions just plainly on /random. Therefore I have always believed there is something more to it. Overall however, my rates are extremely close to the established averages.

Just thought I would point out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

tendency to erroneously perceive small samples from random distributions as having significant "streaks" or "clusters", caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample of random or semi-random data due to chance.

TL;DR= streaks in a truly random sample are bigger then what most people think they should be

I'm not a crafter but the comments here, about time relating to HQ, remind me a lot of observations made about the /random and lotting systems that are discussed in a couple other places of BG, and we all know its the global variables that cause the major screw ups in this game so it's a place to start but not really definitive on S-E's random variable system

[tymora]

Clustering illusion is a possibility. I won't deny that.

But I think it is a part of the fun of crafting to aim for the proverbial holy grail, even if it doesn't exist.

[jaryk]

You're right, Aurik's statement was more eloquent and he did provide the samples, you want me to record mine, ok, I've crafted when I get materials and my hq rates are average from what I've seen on these and other boards. I don't need to reinforce what I don't believe by putting together data and how would I put together data on randomness? Today I crafted and got a hq by buying materials? How does one record randomness? The point was for every crackpot like you we have 2-3 people who just craft and don't have to prove anything by simply showing "hey I didn't do anything special and I got T0's!"

[Viviton]

You're right, Aurik's statement was more eloquent and he did provide the samples, you want me to record mine, ok, I've crafted when I get materials and my hq rates are average from what I've seen on these and other boards. I don't need to reinforce what I don't believe by putting together data and how would I put together data on randomness? Today I crafted and got a hq by buying materials? How does one record randomness? The point was for every crackpot like you we have 2-3 people who just craft and don't have to prove anything by simply showing "hey I didn't do anything special and I got T0's!"

You're right, we cannot measure randomness if the synthesis system is truly random, but what if it isn't? I'm not saying moon phases are the answer, and like someone said if they do effect synthing then the effect is probably almost negligable...But then, what is TH3 + TH4 if not almost negligable, the main reason we use these higher levels of TH is more for peace of mind, of "It can't hurt" even though on so many occasions TH4 has resulted in back to back Dfeetz. The problem with synthing (and the TH system) is if we were to HQ on New Moon or whatever, there's no way to see that it would have NQ'd if we waited an hour to which the moon phase changed...The same as if Ridill dropped with a THF using TH4...Now everyone would be fast to assume the TH4 did it, but for all you know it could have dropped if no THF was there...

What surprises me is the sense of conformity on these forums, it's like everyone's brainwashed into thinking synthesis is 100% random 100% of the time. I'm not saying it isn't, but any theory that says otherwise i'd embrace and test myself, because lets face it...we'd all want to crack the synthesis system.

My personal experiences tell me moon phases effect synthing, they effect alot of factors in this game and it's strange for me to believe they wouldn't effect the 'arguably' largest system in FFXI; synthesis.

But back to the crazy synthesis bot and the HQ windows discussion :O!

[jaryk]

You're right, we cannot measure randomness if the synthesis system is truly random, but what if it isn't? I'm not saying moon phases are the answer, and like someone said if they do effect synthing then the effect is probably almost negligable...But then, what is TH3 + TH4 if not almost negligable, the main reason we use these higher levels of TH is more for peace of mind, of "It can't hurt" even though on so many occasions TH4 has resulted in back to back Dfeetz. The problem with synthing (and the TH system) is if we were to HQ on New Moon or whatever, there's no way to see that it would have NQ'd if we waited an hour to which the moon phase changed...The same as if Ridill dropped with a THF using TH4...Now everyone would be fast to assume the TH4 did it, but for all you know it could have dropped if no THF was there...

What surprises me is the sense of conformity on these forums, it's like everyone's brainwashed into thinking synthesis is 100% random 100% of the time. I'm not saying it isn't, but any theory that says otherwise i'd embrace and test myself, because lets face it...we'd all want to crack the synthesis system.

My personal experiences tell me moon phases effect synthing, they effect alot of factors in this game and it's strange for me to believe they wouldn't effect the 'arguably' largest system in FFXI; synthesis.

But back to the crazy synthesis bot and the HQ windows discussion :O!

Because you can compare the percentage of drops of TH3 and TH4, and over the course of even 4 years you could compare your runs with or without armlets and see the difference. Would it be entirely accurate, of course not, but it would at least be something you could put some data into and analyze. To prove that crafting is purely random you'd have to have a sample for every moonphase on every day at every hour which again would prove nothing. The burden of proof is on the people who do believe day/moonphase have an affect and after years of testing and theory no one has any.

[tymora]

You're right, Aurik's statement was more eloquent and he did provide the samples, you want me to record mine, ok, I've crafted when I get materials and my hq rates are average from what I've seen on these and other boards. I don't need to reinforce what I don't believe by putting together data and how would I put together data on randomness? Today I crafted and got a hq by buying materials? How does one record randomness? The point was for every crackpot like you we have 2-3 people who just craft and don't have to prove anything by simply showing "hey I didn't do anything special and I got T0's!"

You know what? I actually do the same too! I also synth only when I get materials. I don't wait for new moon/full moon if they are going to occur in the middle of the night when I am sleeping or in the middle of the day when I am working.

The difference between you and me, is that I keep a record nonetheless of these seemingly random synth times. That is data collecting. It may or may not prove anything but at the end of the day I would have data that tells me what happened when I synthed on X day Y moon Z time. I would know exactly when I HQed, or broke 10 in a row. This is also precisely why I said my ~2000 samples is like too little, but at least I am taking slow steps forward. I would need both "good day" and "bad day" samples in order to prove or disprove something hence my random synths. There would be no basis for comparison otherwise.

Seriously if I do a 1/12 on elemental staves on 10 out of 12 on a particular set of variables, no amount on "random theory" is going to change my mind that I should avoid that day like a plague.

If you don't want to record your synths, fine, go ahead and do your perfectly random synths. Don't go calling us names just because we are trying to do something you are too lazy to check out. And you are the perfect example of dipshits I wouldn't want to share any of my info with (and not just crafting). Simply put, you don't deserve any.

And you know what, without the "crackpots" who actually bothered to take down thousands of synth data samples, we wouldn't even know what the "average" is. They laid the groundwork and now we're trying to see if there are any truth behind the superstitions. Anything wrong with that?

In our case, we believe in and hence assume there is a relation and are taking the data to prove it. By all means, we could also have assumed that there is no relation and proceed to disprove it. It is only a matter of perspective.

And note that I have never in my posts said that there is actually an effect, only that people should believe in what they want to.

[jaryk]

I will miss your data very much, it will hurt me to not get fine reporting on your random crafting and it like the moonphases will hurt my HQ rates.

[Narse]

Once upon a time, I believed in day/facing/etc. Back before Scorpion Harness was known to be a tier 2able synth, me and a friend discovered through some testing that it was possible. He was the money of the operation and I was the crafting power. His money, so we followed his rules on when to synth, and I got commission per HQ. I did a total of 50 synths with him after we figured it out, and synthing on his day/facing/etc, I went 23/50 HQ, with one break (which is pretty damn good, more like tier 3 rates).

At this point (it just happened to be an even 50 synths that I did for him), I had made enough money to be able to buy V. Claws for my own synths. Doing the exact same thing I had done with my friend (synthing the exact same facing/day/etc), I went 1/30 HQ, with 8 breaks.

Random is random unfortunately, and I put very little weight in day/moon/etc. I do kind of feel that it may work like magic works, in that, if you synth during the day of the crystal that you are synthing with, you may get a 10% bonus to your success/HQ roll, and transversely, a -10% penalty to your success/HQ roll on the day opposing your crystal, but unfortunately this pretty much falls within the margin of randomness and makes it very hard to test without a lot of synthesis data, and there are too many variables to isolate to prove or disprove it. I don't let it effect my synthing.

[Alcarin]

I do go for the directions and moon ph

When i face south on iceday there is no way i can synth a NQ bolts,

always 99 or 66, but if i choose anohter day to do it and face another direction i hq 1 of 6 synths... why?? i dont know, why ice affects earth crystal i dont know but i do know South is Titan...

I will try south on other dif day than ice and i will post =)