
Originally Posted by
Byrd
The current log jam in the west:
2 Denver 52 26
3 San Antonio 49 27
4 Houston 49 28
5 Portland 48 28
6 New Orleans 47 29
7 Utah 47 30
8 Dallas 46 31
The Nuggets' remaining schedule: Thunder, @Lakers, Kings, @Blazers
The Spurs' remaining schedule: @Thunder, Blazers, Jazz, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets
The Rockets' remaining schedule: Magic, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets, @ Mavs
The Blazers' remaining schedule: @Grizz, @Spurs, Lakers, @Clips, Thunder, Nuggets
The Hornets' remaining schedule: @Heat, Suns, @ Mavs, Mavs, @ Rockets, @ Spurs
The Jazz's remaining schedule: @ Mavs, @ Spurs, Warriors, Clippers, @ Lakers.
The Mavs' remaining schedule: Jazz, Hornets, @ Hornets, T-Wolves, Rockets
If all the favorites won, assuming that any of these teams is a favorite at home against any of the others...
Nuggets 2-2 = 54-28 *3rd*
Spurs 6-0 = 55-27 *2nd*
Rockets 3-2 = 52-30 *4th*
Blazers 4-2 = 52-30 *5th*
Hornets 2-4 = 49-33 *8th*
Jazz 2-3 = 49-33 *7th*
Mavs 4-1 = 50-32 *6th*
Utah won the season series with the Hornets, 3-0, so would get the tiebreaker. The Rockets beat the Blazers in their season series, so we get the tiebreaker. Also assuming Magic over Rockets and Heat over Hornets.
It's very unlikely to be Portland -- they've got a 2.5 game lead on 8th with too many teams behind them that play each other, and a relatively favorable schedule. I think it pretty much has to be the Hornets, Jazz or Spurs. The Hornets don't play a bad team for the rest of the season, and play the Mavs twice, who are only 1.5 games behind them.