Global Warming

[Neosutra]

Im saying in 100,000 years we "should" be far more capable of either:

1. Handling/surviving a global climate change.

2. Further influencing the system to indefinately put off the shift.

Hell in 100,000 years we should be able to do what we want with the climate. If we havent killed ourselves off that is.

Why shoot ourselves in the foot now?

[tyven]

this was posted by my meteorology professor in my classes discussion board.

I think everyone agrees that some climatic changes are taking place. The issue of whether man is the main cause is arguable. I do not see any clear evidence for a human contribution to the problem that is more than perhaps about 10%. The fact is, any warming may be part of a natural cycle. The Earth has been at least 10 C warmer during the Cretaceous Period (time of the dinosaurs) than it is presently.

There are many complex interactions that are presently being studied and new sources and sinks of greenhouse gases recently have been identified, such as methane hydrates. The methane gas evolved from these ocean deposits provide large amounts of methane to the atmosphere. This is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. So to say any warming is the result of just burning fossil fuel may be too simplistic.

Finally, several Global Warming models actually predict that the east coast of the US (especially the mid-Atlantic would actually COOL due to associated changes in the Gulf Stream and Labrador Current. Your thoughts?

good stuffs in there for you to discuss

[zoobernut]

Well then that begs the question if our influence on the global climate now, shifting it in a warming trend, is so bad then shouldn't we (even with the technology) not mess with the global climate at all and let it naturally go through its warm swings and cool swings?

Say hypothetically today we stop 100% of pollution and the Earth recovers and there is no more human influence on global warming. In 500 to 100,00 years (because really we have no idea how long this natural warming and cooling takes) should we try to develop technology to reverse it and stabilize the temperatures? If we survive the warming period and enter into a cooling period should we try to stop that rather than learning to survive it?

Won't that basically be doing the same thing we are doing now just on purpose instead of it being a side effect?

We need to make a choice either we mess with the global climate and do everything we can to help the survival of our species and Earth/other species be damned or we need to let it go and learn to survive as a species through the warming and cooling trends that will happen even without our influence.

[0ni0n]

Im saying in 100,000 years we "should" be far more capable of either:

1. Handling/surviving a global climate change.

2. Further influencing the system to indefinately put off the shift.

Hell in 100,000 years we should be able to do what we want with the climate. If we havent killed ourselves off that is.

Why shoot ourselves in the foot now?

I will be surprised if we still don't have the technologies for intergalactic travel within 1,000 years.

[ozz]

so uh...has anyone ever calculated the specific heat of the earth?

[MisterBob]

ITT: A bunch of people arguing by citing reports from random professors of questionable quality.

[tyven]

ITT: A bunch of people arguing by citing reports from random professors of questionable quality.

i believe im the only one doing that!

[Zeb]

If only the Air Force hadn't aborted the DSCOVR climate project, we'd have our answers about this in a few hundred years.
Deep Space Climate Observatory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Woozie]

Well then that begs the question if our influence on the global climate now, shifting it in a warming trend, is so bad then shouldn't we (even with the technology) not mess with the global climate at all and let it naturally go through its warm swings and cool swings?

Say hypothetically today we stop 100% of pollution and the Earth recovers and there is no more human influence on global warming. In 500 to 100,00 years (because really we have no idea how long this natural warming and cooling takes) should we try to develop technology to reverse it and stabilize the temperatures? If we survive the warming period and enter into a cooling period should we try to stop that rather than learning to survive it?

Won't that basically be doing the same thing we are doing now just on purpose instead of it being a side effect?

We need to make a choice either we mess with the global climate and do everything we can to help the survival of our species and Earth/other species be damned or we need to let it go and learn to survive as a species through the warming and cooling trends that will happen even without our influence.

I think we should try to delay it by reducing our greenhouse gasses etc. I also think we should continue to monitor and study the conditions and try to find ways to survive it when it does happen. We should invest in studying technology that will give us the ability to survive.

I believe that our capacity to survive will naturally increase with time just because our technology and knowledge will naturally inicrease. I believe we'll have a better capability to survive regardless of whether or not we purposely devolope technology for that reason. So regardless of what we do, not speeding up global warming/climate disasters will place us in a better position when they happen naturally.

[Woozie]

so uh...has anyone ever calculated the specific heat of the earth?

Seven.

[zoobernut]

I think we should try to delay it by reducing our greenhouse gasses etc. I also think we should continue to monitor and study the conditions and try to find ways to survive it when it does happen. We should invest in studying technology that will give us the ability to survive.

I believe that our capacity to survive will naturally increase with time just because our technology and knowledge will naturally inicrease. I believe we'll have a better capability to survive regardless of whether or not we purposely devolope technology for that reason. So regardless of what we do, not speeding up global warming/climate disasters will place us in a better position when they happen naturally.

You make a good point I concede that it would be in our best interests to do everything we can right now to reduce our effects on the global warming and try to restore it to its natural progression. If we can get rid of our influence on it whether it is 10% or 50% it would be good for us as a species.

I do believe that if we do everything we can to reduce or eliminate our effects on the global climate I do not think we should use devices to stabilize it and prevent the naturally occurring cooling and warming.

[Aerin]

I see this argument close to every time the discussion arises, the ice on the northpole melting. Whats never mentioned is that it seems the total amount of ice on the southpole have expanded with the same amount thats vanished from the north, thus still retaining the same total amount.

Anyone have a link that shows this is true? It's the first I've heard of it. Last I read the Ice in the North pole has a chance of being completely gone by 2050, and the Ice in the South pole keeps breaking off in huge chunks.

[aurik]

Attribution of recent climate change - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Climate change is real.
Climate change is man-made.
Climate change is going to fuck our shit up.

[Tristam]

I don't have the time right now to devote the necessary space to this discussion, but I tried to find review and lay-targeted articles from scientific journals that may give you some idea about the causes and potential impacts of climate change. I assume since you're in the natural sciences you have access to pubmed and science/nature/cell.

I think this is a good start
Science/AAAS | Sign In

This is a more targeted review that shows some of the more subtle impacts of climate that tend to get obscured by the blunt assessment that average temperature will go up.
Science/AAAS | Sign In

On a more local level, if you study or go to talks (by people that study) ecosystems or single species and the effect of temperature on those systems/species, there are changes related to things like fish reproductive ability (bluefin tuna spawning is HIGHLY temperature sensitive and a lab in stanford is trying to quantify the changes in warming as opposed to simply overfishing, so for all you sushi fans this should be a cause for concern). It remains to be seen how human physiology will be affected by temperature, but I think the primary question should be "do we WANT to find out?"

If I can address one specific myth, that water is the primary cause for the warmth of our climate and overshadows anything man can do. The absorption spectra for all gases in the atmostphere are NOT EQUAL, this means that 1 + 1 does not necessarily = 2 for warming if you're adding the concentrations of two seperate gases. Furthermore, the impact caused by water can be treated as saturated at this point. Finally, human impact on atmospheric water is negligible, while our impact on CO2 concentration is quite another story.

Edit: in case this isn't obvious, human beings, being necessarily complex creatures, are HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY adapted to our current climate.

[Dimmauk]

Anyone have a link that shows this is true? It's the first I've heard of it. Last I read the Ice in the North pole has a chance of being completely gone by 2050, and the Ice in the South pole keeps breaking off in huge chunks.

That just means the world is going to flip-flop around, N will be S, rain will fall upwards, Human sacrifice, Dogs and cats living together, MASS HYSTERIA!

[Mizango]

I will be surprised if we still don't have the technologies for intergalactic travel within 1,000 years.

Theoretical Physicist Dr. Michio Kaku makes a good point about Intergalactic civilization within that reasonable time frame, maybe sooner. Let me see if I cant find it for you, should be on his website since I cant cite his book from my coffee table to here obviously.

[ozz]

Seven.

i'll take that knee-slapper as a no

[Neosutra]

Unless we truly are limited to c.

[Sythe]

Don't the polls switching have something to do with the mayan calender...^_^

[brisk]

Haha that site's Nuclear Winter article that Kuno posted cracked me up.