Ix'Mnk Cape Droprate on various organ pops

[sahearniitth]

I was wondering weather the droprate on Ix'Mnk Cape varies by number of organs used to pop it.

In short is the chance of a cape drop a static number (say 15% for sake of argument) regardless of number of organs used OR is the chance of drop factored in based on organs used ,i.e, the game computes the ~30% chance of a drop first off a 1 organ pop and THEN factors in the chance of cape effectivelly reducing chance of cape to ~4.5% off a single organ pop.

[Ultimagi]

I'm pretty sure the drop rate stays the same. Popping with a single organ gives you a 1/3 chance to get something, then its a 1/10 chance its a vice instead of the deed. The only difference is how many times you have to fight the Ix'aern.

[Tsuko_Asura]

This isn't really what you're asking, but from my experience(1/20+), there's absolutely no justification for using fewer than three organs to pop Ix'MNK. From eye-balling, I'm almost certain that the chance of a Vice goes up when you put it on 'something is 100%' status.

[sahearniitth]

Well heres the 2 options to make it more clear as to what I am looking to resolve:

Option 1 (Static Droprate on Cape only)
1 Organ pop - 15% Droprate Cape, 15% Droprate Deed, 70% droprate nothing
3 Organ pop - 15% Cape, 85% Deed

Option 2 (Static Droprate on Both but chance of ANY drop factored in first)
1 Organ pop - 30% chance of drop. If a drop occurs it is 15% cape, 85% deed. This makes chances of cape 4.5%, chance of deed 25.5%
3 Organ pop - 15% Cape 85% deed

In both scenarios the possibility of cape is the same at 3 organ pops. However if Option 1 is true it means a much higher chance of seeing a cape when a drop DOES occur on a 1 Organ MNK pop (granted most of the time you wouldnt see anything). It also means your chances of seeing a cape dont change at all weather you do a 1 organ pop or a 3 organ pop. If however option 2 is true then you are more likelly to see a cape off a 3 organ pop (assuming the difficulty change isnt an issue and that the number of HQ organs you would need to farm isnt an issue either).

[Ultimagi]

It's more like this:

3 organs
1/1 drop rate
1/10 chance of vice

1 organ
1/3 drop rate
1/10 chance of vice
1/30 chance of vice drop from 1 Ix'aern
29/30 chance a vice will not drop from 1 Ix'aern
29/30 * 29/30 * 29/30 chance a vice will not drop from 3 Ix'aerns
24,389/27000 ~90.33%
Therefore 9.66% chance of vice dropping from 3 Ix'aerns.

[Necronus]

It's more like this:

3 organs
1/1 drop rate
1/10 chance of vice

1 organ
1/3 drop rate
1/10 chance of vice
1/30 chance of vice drop from 1 Ix'aern
29/30 chance a vice will not drop from 1 Ix'aern
29/30 * 29/30 * 29/30 chance a vice will not drop from 3 Ix'aerns
24,389/27000 ~90.33%
Therefore 9.66% chance of vice dropping from 3 Ix'aerns.

Ah, but that shows that you have a 9.66% chance of getting ONE OR MORE capes, the important thing is the expected value of capes (I.E. you're counting all 3 pops dropping a cape once when in reality 3 people go home happy).

Your Math Showed:

24389/27000 : Odds for 0 Capes

2611/27000 : Odds of 1 OR MORE capes


The Expected Value math is:

1/30 * 1/30 * 1/30 = 1/27000 == .0037% chance of 3 capes dropping

3 * (1/30 * 1/30 * 29/30) = 87/27000 = 0.32% chance of 2 capes dropping

3 * (1/30 * 29/30 * 29/30) = 2523 / 27000 = 9.34% chance of 1 cape dropping

Thus the expected value of single-organ popping 3 times is

3 * 1/27000 + 2 * 87/27000 + 2523 / 27000 = 2700 / 27000 = 0.10

The expected value of tri-organ popping once is

1/30 = 0.10




TLDR Version: Same overall number of capes via either method over a sufficient sample size.

[Nevex]

Been doing this several times as single organ pops, so far I'm sitting on 2 deeds, 0 vices and 21 no drops.

I'm quite sure drop rate (not specifically talking about cape here) isn't 30-33% with single organ pops from what you can clearly see above, unless I'm really unlucky.

Only had TH4 once, assuming it does anything for this, and nothing dropped anyway.
All the other attempts have been done as RDM duo without any form of Treasure Hunter.

[sahearniitth]

Thanks to everyone responding.

I think my original question is being lost though. I am not asking for specifc numbers on what the droprate is as far as doing math goes. The numbers I used were purelly for trying to provide examples. Nor am I interested in what is better to do, 1 3 organ pop or 3 1 organ pops.

What I am interested in determining is if the droprate for cape is the same for a single 1 organ MNK as it is for a single 3 organ Mnk overall (after factoring in all the considerations for no drop in a 1 organ MNK).

In short if I popped 100 1 Organ MNK's would I get the same number of capes (statistically) as 100 3 organ MNK pops.

[cdgreg]

In short if I popped 100 1 Organ MNK's would I get the same number of capes (statistically) as 100 3 organ MNK pops.

From reading previous threads on this topic the answer to this seems to be yes. Mind you, that's just based on what people have observed, not any incredible amount of statistical data.

[Sylvrdragon]

I went 1/10 on all single organ pops if that helps any. I know a few people that have gonna much longer though, so I most likely got lucky.

There was a thread about this a while back in which someone posted their LS statistics and with a sample size of a few dozen for each variety of pop, it appeared that cape was ~10% static drop rate regardless of organs. Wasn't a huge sample size though. If someone could post their LS statistics now that it's been out a few years, I'm sure it would be much closer to the mark.

[yrpaine]

bring th4 if you can, it helps a ton. increasing hq organs only seems to increase deed drop rate. and with th4 we usually get ~50% on deed and ~10% on cape. we popped 6 the other day and got 4 deed 1 cape 1 no drop. all from 1 organ pops.

[Liseth]

I went 1/2 on a single organ pop myself. Did a few others for several people, using a single organ is the way to go imo.

[Ultimagi]

So really the only difference is the number of times you fight Ix'aern. With 1 organ, you fight it 3 times more than if you pop with 3 organs.

[yrpaine]

that gives you 10% for cape 3 times compared to only once. We've found with th4 you'll get more deeds: organs if you just take the time to do single pops also.

[hypnotizd]

My old sea ls popped MNK with 3 organs and it did not drop anything. A GM was called and informed us that "nothing in the game is 100%". Popping MNK with one organ so far with TH4 resulted in 2/8 Nothing 6/8 Deed. Hopefully our capes are coming soon =)

[Enedin]

My old sea ls popped MNK with 3 organs and it did not drop anything. A GM was called and informed us that "nothing in the game is 100%". Popping MNK with one organ so far with TH4 resulted in 2/8 Nothing 6/8 Deed. Hopefully our capes are coming soon =)

Who the hell did you duo with? Get out of my linkshell!
...
Yeah, we have yet to see a cape lol. But 6/8 on deeds with TH3 (not 4 mate) one organ pop seems very nice lol.

[Skylark]

Right now at popping 1 organ I'm at
56/81 Deed
0/81 Vice
25/81 Nothing
Shoot me.
Normally Trio RDM BLM BLM or duo RDM BLM

[Byrthnoth]

I went 2/34 on single organ pops, got about 8-10 Deeds. This was pre-AV patch though. Supposedly the AV patch raised cape drop rates.

Though I've always insisted otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised to find that the odds of everything go up when you trade more organs. Some of ours were with TH3/4 (maybe half a dozen?) but obviously most weren't, and none of the droppers had TH on them. The rumor that it didn't scale was based on some data from a long long time ago, and drop rate could well have been affected by patches since then. It had a moderately large sample size for single and triple organ pops, but anomalies happen. I obviously still believed it, but I never popped with anything but 1 organ so I can't comment on the triple organ cape drop rate.

Assuming the drop rate does scale so it's 10/20/30% or something similar, it seems best for a duo to do 3 organ pops, likely. If you're efficient at pulling the Ix and can duo pop item Aerns quickly, then it would be the most productive for a duo to do 3 organ pops then farm the next 3 organs in the hour+ worth of killing Ixs that you saved. You'd get more xp that way.

[Tubbers]

1/30 = 0.10

No.

[isladar]

Also don't necrobump.