currency cost speculation.

[Cream Soda]

Oh well, it may get that way in the long run, but it sure isn't there now. When I leave WG, others don't have much of a problem getting it for less than I shouted to buy it for. When that guy from this morning left, I had no problem getting at my usual price. Its not like his one time of going raising his prices automatically made it the standard price. I have a max amount that I'd spend on currency that I actually plan to save, and I won't go over that number. Even if when I have enough gil, I have to wait a while for the price to come down, I'll have that big chunk of gil stockpiled. I'm not impatient. I'm in no rush.


Edit: I'll tell you what, lol. 95% of the people only seem to give a shit when it applies to them. The people who are interested in alexandrite are only pissed because I am buying it more than them. They don't give two shits about the same thing I'm doing with Dyna currency or ABCs. The people buying Dyna currency? They haven't complained at all about what I'm doing with Alexandrite. They're just looking out for themselves, number one, and I don't blame them. While I don't blame them, I'm looking out for number one, myself, as well, so I'm doing what's in best interest for me.

[Ayn]

Can someone just close this thread? It's beyond stupid now.

[Kenji]

He's not ensuring the prices will go up forever. As with anything in a free market, nothing is set in stone.

There are things called trends, and like a rock dropped into a pond, the ripples affect everything. If you have people trying to outbid each other, the price will go up. Sometimes it's in the short term. But if it continues, then overall, the price will rise.

Even if when I have enough gil, I have to wait a while for the price to come down, I'll have that big chunk of gil stockpiled. I'm not impatient. I'm in no rush.

If you're in no rush, then the smart move is to go slowly, and just buy things at low prices and never resell. You end up saving far money then you make.

While I don't blame them, I'm looking out for number one, myself, as well, so I'm doing what's in best interest for me.

The ironic thing is... no you aren't. You only *think* you are. If you had your real best interest in mind, you'd be trying to lower prices, and buy cheaply.

[Cream Soda]

Again, not really. I don't plan to buy coins at these ridiculous prices. Once I have a decent amount of gil stockpiled, I'm going to stop and wait it out until prices come low. If they don't lower, then I'll have enough to sponsor, once a spot opens, which takes all my profit and nets me 300ish coins/glass. And if all else fails, worst case scenario, I end up with a shitload more money than I had to start with.

[S N K]

No he is doing excatly what any of us would do when working on a relic. Some people play the game different then you do and honestly each and everyone one of us go about it differently in the end.

If you think he'll shaft himself in the end then more power to you, if he in turn works it out to where he'll get his relic and of course prices will fall once again on currency then we'll all be happy.

[Kenji]

Again, not really. I don't plan to buy coins at these ridiculous prices. Once I have a decent amount of gil stockpiled, I'm going to stop and wait it out until prices come low. If they don't lower, then I'll have enough to sponsor, once a spot opens, which takes all my profit and nets me 300ish coins/glass. And if all else fails, worst case scenario, I end up with a shitload more money than I had to start with.

Curious question: What leads you to believe prices will come down after you're done raising them?

[Cream Soda]

It's all a game of chance, and I'm willing to take the risk. Notice where I said "If they don't lower,"? I would be just fine ending in one of those two scenarios as well. That's the thing. I'm not depending on currency to lower. I have alternate plans for however the situation decides to play itself out.

[Kenji]

I suppose it is your 12.95 a month. Most wouldn't risk ruining their reputation, and losing lots of money, for a slim chance of gathering a bit more currency.

Because if your income rises 50%, and costs rise 51%, you end up poorer. And you've ticked off a lot of people. That kind of currency is really hard to earn.

[Kaylia]

I suppose it is your 12.95 a month. Most wouldn't risk ruining their reputation, and losing lots of money, for a slim chance of gathering a bit more currency.

Because if your income rises 50%, and costs rise 51%, you end up poorer. And you've ticked off a lot of people. That kind of currency is really hard to earn.

What are you talking about? What is he doing is the best way to minimize the lost and maximize the chance of profit.

If he was hoarding money and price go up, he would lose even more. If he artificially inflate the price, it's bound to drop eventually, and he can wait until then. If price remain high, then he didn't gain/lost anything.

[Guitarman]

All i have to say about this is 16k ordelle pieces freakin sucks. 3 months ago they were 8, hell i got 220 of em for 5k each. I'd like to know where all the money is coming from that people are actually buying this shit at that price.

[Kenji]

What are you talking about? What is he doing is the best way to minimize the lost and maximize the chance of profit.

If he was hoarding money and price go up, he would lose even more. If he artificially inflate the price, it's bound to drop eventually, and he can wait until then. If price remain high, then he didn't gain/lost anything.

Why would it drop? You are fighting against Human Greed. Good luck on that. As price goes up, and people realize that it's going up... most everyone is going to want to sell at that price. You go to buy and "Are you kidding? Why would I sell for that price, when I can get more money for it? X currency are going for much higher now."

Most smart speculators make money by knowing the economic background of the market. Right now, he's gambling; if you really understand the market, there's very little guesswork involved, except for random chance factors (ie, SE deciding to increase or decrease currency creation). Although I hear people do have fun playing roulette. I'd suggest the Russian version. With a semi-automatic pistol. It's basically what he's doing here.

The ironic thing, is that lowering the price still allows you to sell and make a profit in rolanmart. But it's far more profitable in terms of the end result: money and a relic/mythic.

As prices rise, the net value of your gil is devalued; it buys less than it did before. Why someone would want to make themselves worth less, instead of more, I don't know. Lowering the price of currency, makes your gil worth*more;* you can buy more than you could before.

In both cases, you could still sell off extras in rolanmart for a bit more than you bought them for. Ending up with more gil, that's worth more. It's basic economic sense. If I didn't care about my reputation(and still wanted currency for whatever weapon I'm working on), I'd still work to lower price of currency. It's a slam dunk way to make money and complete my weapon faster.

[S N K]

Why would it drop?

Because it can and it will.

[Devia]

... he's gambling ...

Yes, he already admitted this. So what?

[Day]

Because it can and it will.

Exactly, I can't even believe he's asking this. Does no one remember the Christmas inflation?? I just came back to FFXI after at least a year break and most things are crazy way cheaper than they used to be.

[Tomiko]

Take my mythic speculation and add what I forgot.

<Social shell> Hey guys, we just got 500k fucking around in sky, lets go do dyna!

However that works out, you get...

<NewApp> Hi, can I do Dyna with you guys? I'm upgrading a relic weapon (he has a stage 2 in his pocket, probably) and would like to work to sponsor status.

Everyone and their brother thinks "500k Dyna! That should make currency drop, and even if it didn't, it is still cheaper to do the runs! Lets go upgrade!"

POW

Relic upgraders before that announcement > unknown increase in amount of upgraders after that announcement > demand goes sky high, combined with the mythics turning out less desireable.

Mix in server transfers and the inherent price instability that results...

Explains the 7/8/9 (byne/bronze/shell) to 11/13/14 jump I saw recently.

Dunno why the thread is still going, this post pretty much summed up everything.

With more demand for currency, people are going to start undercutting each other in order to acquire said currency. I had the same issue with Frodo when I was still upgrading mythic. I was getting currency for 1k before others were shouting. Then Frodo and another (JP I think) entered the shouting market and offered higher prices than I was.

I've since stopped upgrading mythic due to the lackluster results (already sold my alex) so now I don't care who buys my Alex as long as I get my 3k/each which hasn't been an issue since I know who is willing to buy for that price. Whatever happens to the Alex after it leaves my possession is irrelevant since it won't affect me.

[Kaylia]

Why would it drop?

...

Sellable currency reflect the current ecomony more than anything. If the price is artificially high, it will drop. The opposite is also true.

People don't have infinite supply of money on them, and once the big buyer run out of cash, price is going to drop again.

[Hwang]

I'm not really gunna comment on this anymore, I've spoken to Vegetto, however, the prices won't be dropping as quick, RMT are out in Rolanberry buying coins from whoever walks out there with coins cheap for them to make a profit on, as long as they're still doing that, the prices will stay at what they want them to.

[Day]

I'm not really gunna comment on this anymore, I've spoken to Vegetto, however, the prices won't be dropping as quick, RMT are out in Rolanberry buying coins from whoever walks out there with coins cheap for them to make a profit on, as long as they're still doing that, the prices will stay at what they want them to.

Normal players do this too. It's called using your brain.

[arus2001]

And were it the AH, it could be considered price fixing, which doesn't jive in SE's land of lightning-hurling unicorns. If I had to make a real world comparison, it's like scalping tickets.

[Kenji]

Yes, he already admitted this. So what?

Because it's a retarded gamble. Like Russian Roulette with a semi-automatic levels of stupidity. There are good gambles, and bad gambles. In all honesty, he could change his gamble so there's much less chance of a loss, and much greater chance of a win. Wouldn't you do that if you could?

Exactly, I can't even believe he's asking this. Does no one remember the Christmas inflation?? I just came back to FFXI after at least a year break and most things are crazy way cheaper than they used to be.

The Christmas inflation and deflation was due to RMT, and SE eventually cracking down on it. A different situation than the current topic of currency speculation. Of course, driving currency prices up, would mostly encourage in increase in gil buying, thus an increase in RMT presence in the game to meet that gil buying demand. Thus leading to inflation again. If I just bought 100 mil in gil, I no longer care as much about prices. Especially if I can buy more gil.

...Sellable currency reflect the current ecomony more than anything. If the price is artificially high, it will drop. The opposite is also true.

People don't have infinite supply of money on them, and once the big buyer run out of cash, price is going to drop again.

The big buyer has a lot of money, because he has good ways of getting it. Either gilbuying, or other ways of generating lots of cash (100+ crafts, HNM LS, KS99, etc.). He won't run out of money, so much as finally finish getting the currency he needs. And then, if he has such massive pools of money, might decide to upgrade another.

I do think it's amusing, that the only reason people assume the price of currency will go down is... Because it can! I mean, if there was an actual line of logic behind it, I could respect it. But people are entering and leaving the currency buying phase all the time, so the number of buyers remains relatively constant. Shouting wars drive up the short term, and enough shouting and price bumping drives up the price over the long term. HUman greed ensures it generally stays high. The only way it would drop, is if the number of upgraders dropped drastically, or the amount of currency went up drastically. And even then, it would take quite awhile for the market to reflect that.

But I suppose that was the logic of another bright young lad, who decided to start a war in the mideast and occupy a country, saying everything will work out in the end... because it can! Why would we need to do any thinking?

I admire fundies; they got faith!