AV video solved? - Torque Theory Only

[Secksi]

In before people swear up and down that Nidhogg can pop on maintenance day because they saw it once 5 years ago.

[Tankjr]

Actually, it is. How many Nidhoggs have you seen maintenance day?

If some event X doesn't show up in system Y for Z trials, that's evidence (the strength of which depends on Z) that X doesn't occur in Y.

Correlation is not causation.

[Surealistic]

I have actually seen kb pop on maint day, but that's besides the point, you obviously don't watch the boondocks

[Virg]

I have actually seen kb pop on maint day, but that's besides the point, you obviously don't watch the boondocks

Run

[Tubbers]

I do watch Boondocks, it doesn't matter. If you want to tell me that in 10 billion trials of someone calling your phone and the phone doesn't turn into Godzilla isn't evidence that your phone won't turn into Godzilla when it is dialed, then please be my guest.

Tankjr: There is no diet coke fallacy in what I posted.

I can post this more formally if you want, but it's an overused statement which simply isn't true, it's simply relevant in specific cases such as a sufficiently small number of trials.

Most simple way of showing it: How could you possibly know the probability for a King pop the day of maintenance is 0% if "the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence." You wouldn't be able to, yet we know it is evident this is the case.

Also Surealistic: No you didn't.

[Darkslitter]

Also Surealistic: No you didn't.

No It's true I've seen it before too.

I was waiting one maintenance night. When a play button crossed my sight. I logged in and Nidhogg's head began to rise, and suddenly to my surprise. He did the mash. He did the wyrm mash. The wyrm mash. It was an aery smash. He did the mash. A pld logged in and flashed, then did the mash. He did the wyrm mash.

Dropped 2 ebodys, 1 abody, and a ridill

[thetruepandagod]

strangely convinced that BG forum derailment is the sole reason AV has not been killed.

[Turbotwo]

strangely convinced that BG forum derailment is the sole reason AV has not been killed.

Best theory as to why he hasn't been killed I've heard of yet.

[Linktri]

Seconded.

[Surealistic]

since you obviously dont get it, ill post it for you
YouTube - Boondocks - The absence of evidence

also tubbers: i did see it, but i guess i didnt see what i saw cause even though it happened, you say it cant, so im wrong about what i thought i saw cause your right about what i didnt see but thought i did cause you know more than me

or something

[Yugl]

If some event X doesn't show up in system Y for Z trials, that's evidence (the strength of which depends on Z) that X doesn't occur in Y.

Not in general. If an even only happens once every 100yrs, does you could easily be at 99yrs and say "Oh well it's been 99yrs it will never happen", but that doesn't mean you're correct. A less abstract example would be saying all apples are red because out of 100000 apples you have seen, they were all red. Of course that isn't the case.

[Yabby]

strangely convinced that BG forum derailment is the sole reason AV has not been killed.

This is why i wish he would go away. No one cares for his comments, and not one of his post in the last 10 pages has not been a bad attempt at derailment.

[Suiram]

If some event X doesn't show up in system Y for Z trials, that's evidence (the strength of which depends on Z) that X doesn't occur in Y.

Not in general. If an even only happens once every 100yrs, does you could easily be at 99yrs and say "Oh well it's been 99yrs it will never happen", but that doesn't mean you're correct. A less abstract example would be saying all apples are red because out of 100000 apples you have seen, they were all red. Of course that isn't the case.

Nor is that what he said. He said that if you have seen 100,000 red apples and no apples of any other color, that is evidence of the proposition that all apples are red, and that the evidence is stronger than if you had seen only 1000 apples, and less so than if you'd seen 10,000,000.

At what point you want to call something an empirical fact is a question of your philosophy. I'm personally comfortable saying that it's impossible for an HQ to pop immediately after a maintenance, as thousands of post-maintenance NQs have popped on all servers in the history of this game, and there is 0 screenshot evidence supporting one HQ pop.

[Yugl]

Nor is that what he said. He said that if you have seen 100,000 red apples and no apples of any other color, that is evidence of the proposition that all apples are red, and that the evidence is stronger than if you had seen only 1000 apples, and less so than if you'd seen 10,000,000.

At what point you want to call something an empirical fact is a question of your philosophy. I'm personally comfortable saying that it's impossible for an HQ to pop immediately after a maintenance, as thousands of post-maintenance NQs have popped on all servers in the history of this game, and there is 0 screenshot evidence supporting one HQ pop.

Alright, if he means that it's a more favorable answer than an absolute answer then I have no problem with what he's saying.

[Tubbers]

Nor is that what he said. He said that if you have seen 100,000 red apples and no apples of any other color, that is evidence of the proposition that all apples are red, and that the evidence is stronger than if you had seen only 1000 apples, and less so than if you'd seen 10,000,000.

At what point you want to call something an empirical fact is a question of your philosophy. I'm personally comfortable saying that it's impossible for an HQ to pop immediately after a maintenance, as thousands of post-maintenance NQs have popped on all servers in the history of this game, and there is 0 screenshot evidence supporting one HQ pop.

Thank you. Also, lmao @ DS, that was good.

[Gerkin]

I know this is off topic, but any new AV testing?

[blackmail]

Best theory as to why he hasn't been killed I've heard of yet.

Imagine if BG derails were the secret to killing AV....

[Linktri]

Steps to killing Absolute Virtue:
1. Create Topic on Bluegartrls.com/forum > Advanced about Absolute Virtue.
2. Get past the first eight pages of rehashing and stupid shit.
3. Let the thread decline into stupid fucking arguement about statistics and apples or some dumb shit.
4. When the thread has derailed into a few retards arguing with one another because their first, most invalid points about apples failed to pertain to the original topic of discussion at all, the Original Poster comes in and drives the now derailed, massive and slow moving thread straight into Absolute Virtue's face.
5. Absolute Virtue dies.
6. Drops are had.
7. Some accounts with Ninurta's Sashes get banned.
8. Drama abounds.
9. And the beat goes on.

[Yabby]

Think, if there was just a mod to delete the derailments.... think what we could do...... /sigh

[Maxxthepenguin]

Think, if there was just a mod to delete the derailments.... think what we could do...... /sigh

Hey man, fuck you, when there was serious discussion with a high chance of actually getting somewhere I was modding the shit out of this thread, spending hours upon hours cleaning up the derails, irrelevant comments, and things that could be split into another thread. I had to read every fucking post by idiots (you know the ones) that feel the need to post everything we already know ten times and discuss obvious things like how to reduce meteor damage. But things didn't pan out. It just wasn't worth the headache when this thread clearly stopped being taken the slightest bit seriously.