http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b6...rgy_Budget.jpg
This is the global energy budget. The sun warms the earth which is a gray body and thus emits heat (all of the heat emitted by the earth is long wave radiation). 'Greenhouse gasses' (the greenhouse effect as people call it, is completely incorrect. This is an argument for another day) cause this long wave radiation to be returned to the surface. This can be seen easily on a cloudy night. It is warmer on a cloudy night then a night with a clear sky because clouds reflect long wave radiation effectively. Note: long wave radiation = IR
Common absorptivity of some 'greenhouse' gasses:
http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b6...ty_example.jpg
The quantity (and altitude) of IR absorbing gasses in the atmosphere influence the atmospheric temperature distribution.
Changes in the concentrations of the gasses (either natural or man-made) cause changes in the energy balance.
How we screw ourselves:
This is the most accepted theory in scientific meteorology group. There is something called a 'Tipping Point'. This is the point at which the earth is sent into an ice age cycle.
YOU CAN NOT IN ANY WAY DETERMINE THIS POINT UNTIL MUCH AFTER THE FACT!!! (ice core samples don't tell us shit here). Also,
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVE THAT HUMANS CAUSED THIS CHANGE TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE FACT! (i believe it is highly likely that we do influence it. but, ice ages are natural cycles thus we cant prove we helped it until we know what causes it.) This point could have been 3 years ago, yesterday, 300 years from now, or even the day after tomorrow. We will know we are screwed when a ocean current changes or stops. The movie 'The Day After Tomorrow' is fairly correct in predicting what could happen but the three days the events occurred over would be well over the span of 50ish years if that short. IF WE WERE TO STOP ALL 'greenhouse' PRODUCTION NOW, we would not see an effect until 3-5 years down the road. This shows people say we have to change now are completely stupid to blow so much money on something that is only half-assed in comparison to current technology. Yes we need to change, but, changing tomorrow or changing slowly over the next few years as new tech is perfected has little difference.
Supplemental argument: When Mt. Penetubo(sp?) erupted the world as a whole cooled ~2 deg for the year due to the ash in the upper atmosphere.
Now please stop spreading Al Gore propaganda, it gets old fast.......