The Indians had a much shorter window of opportunity than I thought when they were a win away from the World Series two years ago. I pretty much agreed with most experts that the best was yet to come, with the strength up the middle offensively and defensively from Martinez, Peralta, Cabrera and Sizemore, and a very good rotation anchored by Sabathia. Add in a late-blooming masher DH in Hafner, and you had what I thought was the best team in baseball outside the AL East. Even the disappointing 2008 was somewhat mitigated by what I thought were three steals on on the trading block, Sabathia for Matt LaPorta and friends, Casey Blake for Carlos Santana, and a bus pass to Columbus and some Big League Chew for Mark DeRosa.
Looking at this team today, I can barely recognize it as a contender. Martinez's bat will carry anywhere, but it seems less special at first than it did at catcher. Add in that he's 30, and he might not be putting up these numbers by the time they contend again, it wouldn't surprise me if he got dealt before the break. Now, if Santana lives up to his billing, catcher will still be a strength for them, but even if Martinez takes over first full-time, that's three positions where I think they will be above average (Sizemore being the third.) Their middle infield is a mess, they can't keep Cabrera healthy and/or productive, Josh Barfield's a quad-A player, and Valbuena's enjoying his career peak right now and you've probably never heard of him. Peralta was a decent all-hit, no-field shortstop but he looks a lot worse at third. Thier best hope for him is to transform into Brandon Inge, where he enjoys offensive peaks at the hot corner but nowhere else. Their non-Sizemore outfield spots aren't much better, I like Choo but he'll probably have to fulfill his Korean military service obligation for the next two years, and I don't think the team is sold on LaPorta or else they'd just hand him left field right now. As for DH, I think it's clear Hafner's shoulder will never hold up for a whole season again, and his contract is going to look even more foolish every time he hits the DL.
The future of the pitching staff is even less encouraging. After Lee, no one has been healthy or productive in consecutive seasons for as long as I can remember. Carmona's career is in a tailspin, sure he might work some stuff out in the minors and come back as strong as he was, but Lee just did that and can you really get that lucky twice? It's not even that he's getting hit that hard, he simply can't throw strikes, maybe he could take batting lessons from Rick Ankiel and hope to solve one of their problems at a corner outfield spot. Carl Pavano will probably be good for just long enough to get some kind of contract extension and the fold up again. Jake Westbrook might be done, and there aren't many young aces coming up from the minors. The bullpen also looks awful, they may have used up all the juice in Betancourt and Raffy Perez's arms, and Wood was a contend-now type pickup.
The first step for them is to fire Eric Wedge. He's been reluctant to shake things up that aren't working, moving Peralta to third and dropping Sizemore from the lead-off spot were done out of injury and desperation rather than innovation. I think their last three big tradable chips, Wood Lee and Martinez, could all fetch very good prospects. They should start with getting some good starting pitching, as most of their home-grown prospects project as #3-4 type guys at best. I don't know if the AL East powers-that-be would part with a Clay Buchholz or a Phil Hughes, but it's worth a shot. Let Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta take over catcher and left, respectively, and hope Carmona gets it figured out in time for Opening Day 2010. I don't think a full rebuilding period is needed, and I think the club has finally realized that 2009 is toast. I like Mark Shapiro as a GM, I just hope he realizes anyone outside of Sizemore should be seen as expendable.