2009 MLB season discussion*

[Ensam]

Spring training starting today woohoo. Does anyone know a site that allows you to watch streamed games for free and and are internationally-friendly? (Had trouble watching non-Canadian streamed olympic stuff last year).

myp2p.eu has most games, and it's internationally friendly (I know people in all parts of Europe who use it). Best place for streamed baseball and likely other sports.

also

http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/shared-blo...an/hanley2.jpg

http://www.globalgallery.com/prod_im...1610-13262.jpg

so awesome

[fren.]

^ Future Yankee.

He said he hates Boston, so its a done deal.

[Bregor]

^ Future Yankee

when he's 37 and has a bad back.

[Ensam]

when he's 37 and has a bad back.

And it'll still be an upgrade over Jeter's defense.

Watched my first ST game this year (Mets/Fish). I missed it so much Q_Q

[Akiyama]

And it'll still be an upgrade over Jeter's defense.

Watched my first ST game this year (Mets/Fish). I missed it so much Q_Q

what? Better than Jeter's defense? I'm guessing that's just a crack in general at the Yankees because you don't like them or something? If not, then that's silly. HanRam's defense is horrible.

[Ensam]

what? Better than Jeter's defense? I'm guessing that's just a crack in general at the Yankees because you don't like them or something? If not, then that's silly. HanRam's defense is horrible.

Actually, no. It was horrible in 2007, but he was roughly average in 06/08. Going via +/-, he was -6 in 06 and +3 last season.* Considering excuses can be found for his '07, it's easy to point that out as being an anomaly and moving on. It's probably a lot fairer to call him a slightly below average than roughly average, but the hate his defense gets is laughable. I just hope you aren't somebody who brings up ERRORS as if it's something to judge defense on.

And Jeter was a decent fielding SS, a long time ago. Then he hit his 30's, lost his range, now easily the worst defensive SS in the league (Since '05 he's at -102...nobody even comes close to that. Average of -25 a season). It was just a crack on that, I wasn't being serious. Obviously when Hanley gets to that age he's not going to be able to stay at the position either. They really should have kept A-Rod at short and moved Jeter to third, though. Moving the above average defensive SS to 3rd and keeping the worst fielding SS in the bigs cost a lot on defense. His bat still makes him one of the better SSs in the league, but it's amazing how much better the Yanks defense could be with some shifting. Can't move aye captain though.

*If you don't know what +/- is, basically the number is amount of plays not made/made, so basically about how many bases you save/give up on defense. As a single is worth roughly half a run, you can look at one point of +/- being worth 0.5 a run.

[Bregor]

Ramirez's defense actually improved greatly last season. By BP's defensive metrics, he went from 6 runs below the average shortstop in 2007 to 12 runs above average in 2008. There was talk about moving Hanley to the outfield earlier in his career but those rumors have all but died. Meanwhile, Jeter's defensive numbers the last two seasons were -18 and -12 runs respectively, and has long had issues with range at the position. He's a glorified second baseman defensively.

[Ensam]

I really hate BP's RAA, which is unfortunate because I think WARP is a wonderful stat in theory but because their defensive metric is so poor, it dilutes it's authenticity. It is on sometimes but other times, it's just off the wall (i.e., Hanley saving 12 runs last year).

I think the best to use is plus/minus, with RZR/OOZ being a close second. plus/minus costs to see but rzr/ooz being free at hardballtimes. Reading how plus/minus is calculated, it's hard to argue against it.

A lot of people also seem to love UZR, but unless something has changed since I saw how it was calculated a couple years back, it's basically just a glorified zone rating (the one made in the 80's...the one that's so severely outdated with a lot of outliers).

[fren.]

when he's 37 and has a bad back.

Totally can see Florida spending 8x their current payroll to keep him! He'll be 30 when he hits FA.

Speaking of +/-, Pujols over the last three years has a plus/minus rating of +82 at 1B, next closest is Kotchman at +42. That's fucking obscene, dude not only has a career OPS+ of 170 to make him far and away the best hitter in the game, but he's also the best defender at any position by that big of a gap.

[Bregor]

BP admits it's an imperfect system, but they are attempting to improve it every year. For 2008 they started using play-by-play data for every hit, rather than the aggregate season totals that they have used in every year prior to this. I was always suspicious when I would read year after year that Orlando Cabrera was one of the best defensive shortstops ever, but it looks like BP is heading in the right direction in regard to its defensive metrics.

Totally can see Florida spending 8x their current payroll to keep him! He'll be 30 when he hits FA.

And Florida will have a new stadium and their young staff could be dominating the NL East en route to multiple pennants by then. Hate to break it to you, but the "rebuild/World Series/sell-off" cycle of the Marlins is probably toast.

[fren.]

BP admits it's an imperfect system, but they are attempting to improve it every year. For 2008 they started using play-by-play data for every hit, rather than the aggregate season totals that they have used in every year prior to this. I was always suspicious when I would read year after year that Orlando Cabrera was one of the best defensive shortstops ever, but it looks like BP is heading in the right direction in regard to its defensive metrics.



And Florida will have a new stadium and their young staff could be dominating the NL East en route to multiple pennants by then. Hate to break it to you, but the "rebuild/World Series/sell-off" cycle of the Marlins is probably toast.

Selling off is a lot different than expecting them to hold onto a top 3 talent, who's gonna be in for a huge fucking payday. He won't be as young as ARod/Tex when he hits the market, but they'll have to pony up and bid against the Yanks if they want him back.

[Ensam]

Well Hanley isn't one that's totally in it for money (see: his current contract. Comparing it to other buy-out contracts, he could have made a lot more than just 6/70), but I do agree that I don't expect him to be in Marlin's jersey come 2014. Considering how much he shies away from the media, he might be one of those who doesn't even want to play for a Yankee/Red Soxs team and instead go with someone like, say, STL, who's still big market/big payroll but also has one of the more player-friendly media outlets and fanbase.

Speaking of +/-, Pujols over the last three years has a plus/minus rating of +82 at 1B, next closest is Kotchman at +42. That's fucking obscene, dude not only has a career OPS+ of 170 to make him far and away the best hitter in the game, but he's also the best defender at any position by that big of a gap.

Utley is almost as crazy. He has a +85, next best is Ellis at +58. And of coarse plays the more offensive-barren position (thoug he also gets a huge boost from his home park, 'only' a 135 OPS+).

Pujols is just insane though. I know they play him at first base because of his elbow issues and they don't want to blow out his arm, but man, could you imagine him playing third again? You know with his work ethic he'd be an insane fielder there too, then add on his offense...good god haha.

[Bregor]

Bradley leaves game with injury in Cubs' win - MLB - Yahoo! Sports

Awesome. Just awesome.

[Stiker]

Bradley leaves game with injury in Cubs' win - MLB - Yahoo! Sports

Awesome. Just awesome.

Aaaaand that's why we didn't resign him. Enjoy your 162 games of "day-to-day" status.

[Cephius]

Defensive metrics are obviously an imprecise and imperfect measure of defensive capability, but Jeter has ranked dead last in almost every defensive metric/range factor for awhile now. HanRam has the ability, he just makes a lot of errors. That's inherently different from Jeter, who just doesn't have the range to make a lot of plays anymore.

Also RE: Florida, they're still cheap, sorry. They could have had Manny for the same deal the Dodgers got (free, basically) but they wanted an additional million on top of Boston paying his entire contract. Theo told them to F off, and they traded him to LA.

Now... I don't know if the Marlins would have beat out the Brewers and Mets last year with Manny, but they could have had him for free and they passed over a couple million when they were giving up nothing anyway. The idea that the same organization could win a bidding war against the Yankees is pretty absurd.

[Ensam]

Also RE: Florida, they're still cheap, sorry. They could have had Manny for the same deal the Dodgers got (free, basically) but they wanted an additional million on top of Boston paying his entire contract. Theo told them to F off, and they traded him to LA.

Actually, no.

What shot the deal down was the Pirates insistant on a cat by the name of "Michael Stanton." Not money.

If you haven't heard of him, he blasted 39 home runs last year. As an 18 year old. His power rates as a 70. RIGHT NOW. Not power potential. His CURRENT power is 70. There aren't many players in the majors with 70 power. He's not the safest of prospects but he is easily the top power prospect in the minors.

There was already a trade that was going to go through (IIRC it was Jeremy Hermida/Ryan Tucker/Chris Coghlan to the Pirates, Bay to the Red Sox, and Manny, John Grabow, and $$$ to FL), that was agreed on all parties, but then the Pirates backed out and demanded Stanton be added in place of CC. Fish weren't going to give Stanton up, so the trade fell through.

Now... I don't know if the Marlins would have beat out the Brewers and Mets last year with Manny, but they could have had him for free and they passed over a couple million when they were giving up nothing anyway. The idea that the same organization could win a bidding war against the Yankees is pretty absurd.

The Marlins would not have had Manny "for free." Even in the deal that nearly went through, they would have given up Jeremy Hermida (Who struggled last season, but also put up a .870 OPS the season before and his potential has always been held in extremely high regards, being the 4th ranked prospect in all of baseball in 2006 by BA), Chris Coghlan (Argueably the top 2b prospect in the game [BA, at the least, had him ranked #1], although 2b is really weak at the moment [not a single 2b prospect cracked their top 100 for this season]), and Ryan Tucker (1.58 ERA in AA last season ggg). That is a haul and likely better than what the Pirates ended up getting.

As far as the bidding war with Yankees, it shows you really don't understand the situation. The reason the Marlins are "cheap" at the moment is because Wayne Huizenga is getting basically all of the money. The whole point of getting a new stadium isn't for shit and giggles, it's because because Wayne's an asshole who, before selling the team, signed a contract with himself so that basically any money via the stadium made goes to him (Which is where majority of money comes from for most teams).

The Marlins are set up to have a new stadium come 2012. Hanley does not become a FA until after the 2014 season. I've already said that I certainly don't expect him to still be around (I don't even know if I'd want him around, considering it'd build a situation like Texas had with A-Rod. Plus his defense is really gonna take a shitter by that point in his career), but the Marlins payroll is going to rise in a new stadium. No, it's not going to be a Yankee payroll. It'll likely be around what most other teams, like OAK, MIL, COL, ect, where it's upwards of 80m in peakyears, downwards of 50m in rebuilding years, but normally around 60-70m.

[Cephius]

I never heard any report of the Pirates demanding anyone, that's the first I've heard of it. ESPN and local radio here in NY reported that Florida wanted more money from Boston, and that was the dealbreaker. If you have any sources I'd love to see them (not saying you're wrong or anything, just interested)

And how do I not understand the situation? The Marlins haven't shown any sign that they're willing to keep young players once they're due big money, and there's no assurance they're getting a new stadium with the way the economy is right now. I understand they haven't even begun construction and there are still pending legal disputes, so you never know what's going to happen. Even with the new stadium that's not a definitive sign of a raise in payroll or change in economic policy, especially considering that the new stadium is only going to seat 37,000 fans. Not saying it can't happen, but you seem to be counting on a new stadium and a change in policy that may not happen the way you see it.

[Orph]

I don't think the Marlins will even be in Florida when Hanley's contract is up

[Ensam]

I never heard any report of the Pirates demanding anyone, that's the first I've heard of it. ESPN and local radio here in NY reported that Florida wanted more money from Boston, and that was the dealbreaker. If you have any sources I'd love to see them (not saying you're wrong or anything, just interested)

Well, part of it's inside sources ( ), part of it's radio play (Peter Gammons woo. Although while looking for this stuff, I did come across the deal that was actually set in stone before Pirates backed out and demanded Stanton. Via Gammons:
Hermida, Coghlan, Tankersley and Brandon Moss to Pitt
Bay to Boston
Manny and 9 mil to Florida.) so it's harder to find articles. (dodgers did get better than that)

Regardless though:

Hardball

"That created a stumbling block because the Pirates were determined to get four youngsters/prospects they wanted. This is why things were so close. Florida agreed to part with outfielder Jeremy Hermida and then made a prospect list available from which Pittsburgh could pick one. That list was highlighted by second baseman Chris Coghlan and first baseman Gaby Sanchez. However, the Pirates were insisting on either Ryan Tucker or Mike Stanton. The Marlins said no and the Red Sox refused to sweeten their prospect booty. And that is how the Marlins fell out of this."

Baseball the right choice for Stanton | marlins.com: News

"At the time, Florida explored dealing for slugger Manny Ramirez, who was being shopped by Boston. Much has been reported and speculated as to why Ramirez ended up with the Dodgers and not the Marlins.

The main reason is Florida was not willing to part with Stanton, whose name became attached to the deal."

The Marlins were asking for more money though, yeah, but that wasn't what held it up.

some others:

Mike Stanton provides the power for Greensboro - Los Angeles Times
Marlins eager to watch outfielder Mike Stanton, other rising position players
Hoppers' Stanton adds to historic season : News-Record.com : Greensboro, North Carolina

Too lazy to look for more

And how do I not understand the situation? The Marlins haven't shown any sign that they're willing to keep young players once they're due big money, and there's no assurance they're getting a new stadium with the way the economy is right now. I understand they haven't even begun construction and there are still pending legal disputes, so you never know what's going to happen. Even with the new stadium that's not a definitive sign of a raise in payroll or change in economic policy, especially considering that the new stadium is only going to seat 37,000 fans. Not saying it can't happen, but you seem to be counting on a new stadium and a change in policy that may not happen the way you see it.

The issue is that they don't have the money to spend, not that they chose not to spend it. A lot of people point to revenue sharing, as if payroll is the only thing that costs money. Not giving young players contracts isn't about being cheap, it's about being smart and taking advantage of the current financial system in place. Also not many players that hit FA years are kept, on any team.

The Marlins are getting a new stadium by 2012, weather it's in Miami or *insert city here*. Right now it's not set in stone that it's in Miami, but it's likely the stadium deal goes through. Also the issue isn't just ticket sales (in regards to the 37k remark). It's concessions. It's parking. It's luxury suites. Ect ect. All of that goes to Wayne Huizenga right now.

I mean, just look at hot dogs. 7 dollars a pop. We're looking at, what, 10% of the attendance getting a hot dog? With the current attendance, that's nearly 600k made a year off just hot dogs. That doesn't include other food. Or drinks. That doesn't include BEER which I'm sure is a bigger cash cow. And that's just food.

The difference between the Marlins and most other teams, that gap in money, most of it can be pointed to cash made through the stadium.

Also sorry if my post before came off offensively.

[pohibaba]

I'm excited and thought I'd share it here. In April I get to go to both a Yankees/Red Sox game at Fenway (my first ever time there) and a Giants/Dodgers game in LA. There's a decent possibility that I might not make it home alive from LA after I show up to the bleachers wearing all of my Giants garb.