2009 MLB season discussion*

[Hex]

This is the first time in forever I can remember thinking from start of the season, Yankees are the team to beat. I'm not changing on that. My only wish is Pedro pitches good when he gets the chance. Yankees in 6 is my pick. I wouldn't be surprised if they win it in 5.

[Bozo]

2009 This Year in Baseball Awards | MLB.com: News

Doesn't seem to be a limit to how often you can vote. When do awards like MVP, Cy Young, and ROTY get announced?

[Soa]

I couldn't take those awards seriously when they didn't include Jayson Werth's 3 HR, 8 RBI game, while including a bunch of 2 homer sub 8 RBI games last year.

[Olo401]

Vamanos, papi.. bring it on!

http://bostondirtdogs.boston.com/Pedro_daddy_mets.jpg

[fren.]

2009 This Year in Baseball Awards | MLB.com: News

Doesn't seem to be a limit to how often you can vote. When do awards like MVP, Cy Young, and ROTY get announced?

Mid November.

[Vedder]

Cephius, your assessment on the last page looks pretty good. My only quibble would be that you might be overstating the Yankees starters a bit. CC is a horse, yeah, but Burnett has the potential to get lit up by the Phillies LH hitters and I'm not sold on Pettite being a shutdown pitcher anymore ... but luckily for him, he'll face off vs. Hamels and can probably make a few mistakes and keep his team in the game.

In addition, unless the Yankees are up 3-0, they're either going to have to go w/ a 3-man rotation or toss a very questionable #4 guy out there at some point... as in someone worse than Blanton/Happ. I think CC can handle short rest, but what about those other guys?

Mind you, I'm not saying the Phillies staff is better on the whole... I just think the edge is Slightly in the Yankees favor rather than solidly in their favor.

Game 1 will be pivotal. If the Phillies can somehow win, then they'll take the series in 5-6 games. Otherwise I'm taking them in 7.

[Cephius]

Cephius, your assessment on the last page looks pretty good. My only quibble would be that you might be overstating the Yankees starters a bit. CC is a horse, yeah, but Burnett has the potential to get lit up by the Phillies LH hitters and I'm not sold on Pettite being a shutdown pitcher anymore ... but luckily for him, he'll face off vs. Hamels and can probably make a few mistakes and keep his team in the game.

Sure, AJ can get knocked around, he can also shut them out over 8 innings. By the way, AJ has gone on 3 days rest 4 times in his career - and he's 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA in those starts. Going on short rest may actually help his control because he won't be as likely to overthrow his pitches. Also, he'll be matched up against Pedro.

Can't agree about Pettitte. All he does is win big games. He passed Smoltz as the winningest postseason pitcher - and he's been hot down the stretch this year. Andy rarely gets knocked around, he has a good feel for what's working and will fool a lot of hitters with breaking balls and changeups if his cutter isn't moving. He might give up 4 runs in 6 innings, but he keeps them in the game.

Also, look at the Yankees numbers against Lee. Jeter is batting .407 against him in 27 at bats. Tex is batting .391 in 23 at bats. Jorge is batting .286 in 21 at bats with 2 homers. A-rod is batting .333 in 15 at bats with 2 homers. That's a lot of good numbers to match up with the Phillies ace.

The Phillies haven't seen CC since they beat him last year, and no one has more than 7 at bats against him. The only one with a good sample size is Ibanez, who is hitting .174 in 23 at bats.

So I'm not only going on the reasoning that the pitchers after Lee are much more hittable, but even that the Yankees have seen Lee plenty of times already and have good averages against him.

Of course, anything can happen. I'm cherry picking a bit because I'm not giving much credit to the Phillies last year for pounding Sabathia when he was exhausted and didn't have it. I feel he'll be different this time. But who knows, maybe they kill him for 10 runs in the first inning.

[Abraxas]

the phillies faced Sabathia, Burnett and Pettite this year @ yankee stadium, and won 2/3, blowing a save for the one loss (to Sabathia).

so yea, theyve faced him since last year and proved they can beat him

[Cephius]

the phillies faced Sabathia, Burnett and Pettite this year @ yankee stadium, and won 2/3, blowing a save for the one loss (to Sabathia).

so yea, theyve faced him since last year and proved they can beat him

Why does everyone bring up those 3 games as if they mean anything? Both teams are quite different since then. It's not like you're even analyzing the stats, you're just saying "hey, we won 2 out of 3, we're better!" Also, people seem to forget that if Tex hits a sac fly in the 11th inning, the Yankees take 2 of 3. Burnett got smacked around, I guess you could bank on that happening again but I wouldn't.

The Yankees lost 2 of 3 at home to the Nationals too. How could they fire Manny Acta, they're as good as the Phillies!

P.S. Sabathia gave up 3 runs in 8 innings, hardly crushed.

[Abraxas]

The Phillies haven't seen CC since they beat him last year

my response was to this.

yes, they are both different teams. the phils got Lee and Martinez, and Lidge has been better as of late than he has since the season series. how much have the yanks upgraded since then? and it also seems their bullpen went downhill. so saying "these are different teams" doesnt really help your argument

and regardless of stats, my point is they were on pace to take 3 straight games, stats are for espn analysts who like to hype up (and down) players. the goal is to win games, especially now.

idc how i analyze the stats, its the W that means more than anything.

mind you, just b/c im from philly doesnt mean im expecting the phils to win, or predicting it. the yanks scare me, tbh. just pointing out your misinformation

[Penthesilea]

Didn't realize that sac flies = two automatic runs.

And if John Mayberry Jr got a hit with RISP in the 8th then the phillies would have swept!


Last I checked Pedro has decent stats against most of the starters on the yankees, so there's your counter to your yankees starters against lee.

[Vedder]

Sure, AJ can get knocked around, he can also shut them out over 8 innings. By the way, AJ has gone on 3 days rest 4 times in his career - and he's 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA in those starts. Going on short rest may actually help his control because he won't be as likely to overthrow his pitches. Also, he'll be matched up against Pedro.

Can't agree about Pettitte. All he does is win big games. He passed Smoltz as the winningest postseason pitcher - and he's been hot down the stretch this year. Andy rarely gets knocked around, he has a good feel for what's working and will fool a lot of hitters with breaking balls and changeups if his cutter isn't moving. He might give up 4 runs in 6 innings, but he keeps them in the game.

Also, look at the Yankees numbers against Lee. Jeter is batting .407 against him in 27 at bats. Tex is batting .391 in 23 at bats. Jorge is batting .286 in 21 at bats with 2 homers. A-rod is batting .333 in 15 at bats with 2 homers. That's a lot of good numbers to match up with the Phillies ace.

The Phillies haven't seen CC since they beat him last year, and no one has more than 7 at bats against him. The only one with a good sample size is Ibanez, who is hitting .174 in 23 at bats.

So I'm not only going on the reasoning that the pitchers after Lee are much more hittable, but even that the Yankees have seen Lee plenty of times already and have good averages against him.

Of course, anything can happen. I'm cherry picking a bit because I'm not giving much credit to the Phillies last year for pounding Sabathia when he was exhausted and didn't have it. I feel he'll be different this time. But who knows, maybe they kill him for 10 runs in the first inning.

You're right, anything can happen. This series actually boggles the mind with all the possibilities, especially with handling of the pitching staffs.

As a Phillies fan, I'm more concerned with certain players playing up to their potential (Rollins, Hamels, Lidge, etc) than I am with the Yankees beating them. However the Yankees wanna play it, the Phillies can counter ... a slugfest, a pitchers duel, clutch hitting, whatever. It's just going to be a darn good World Series, with the Phillies coming out on top I hope.

P.S. - Sabathia pitched 256.2 innings in total last year. So far this year he's up to 252.2. I know he's been handled better this year in terms of rest, but who's to say he won't be gassed by game 7 on the heels of back-to-back short rest outings?

[fren.]

^ Lee has never started a game on three days rest. Game 7 is irrelevant (unless CC falls apart early) because its all hands on deck)

As for "beating" Sabathia in the past, yea..uhh, that was pre-ASB CC Sabathia. We also had that piece of shit Brett Tomko blow the third game in extra innings.

[Abraxas]

js man, js

[Cephius]

and regardless of stats, my point is they were on pace to take 3 straight games, stats are for espn analysts who like to hype up (and down) players. the goal is to win games, especially now.

idc how i analyze the stats, its the W that means more than anything.

I forgot they faced each other earlier in the season. My numbers are still correct, no one has a large sample size and the only one who does is batting under .150. There are a lot of 0fer6s in there too. Stats are a measure of performance, no matter how much ESPN blowhards distort them. Used correctly, they paint an accurate picture. Regardless, it's better than saying "The Yankees will win because of Kate Hudson and Jeter's calm eyes".

mind you, just b/c im from philly doesnt mean im expecting the phils to win, or predicting it. the yanks scare me, tbh. just pointing out your misinformation

Fair enough.

Didn't realize that sac flies = two automatic runs.

And if John Mayberry Jr got a hit with RISP in the 8th then the phillies would have swept!

Last I checked Pedro has decent stats against most of the starters on the yankees, so there's your counter to your yankees starters against lee.

They had bases loaded in that inning (I think, too lazy to look up the gamecast), if Tex does anything except GIDP they probably win that game. The point is... you can say a lot of "but what if"s in a 3 game series that happened in the spring.

And you seriously cannot be comparing stats against Lee in his prime to stats against Pedro in his prime. Pedro is like 97 years old now and didn't even have a team a few months ago. Those numbers against the Yankees were from the years when he posted some the most ridiculous pitching stats the game has ever seen. Suffice to say, he's not that guy anymore.

(And by the way, the "Who's your Daddy" didn't come out of nowhere, the Yankees were one of the few teams that had success against him because they'd wear him out by the 6th inning, maybe get a run or two, and bust up the bullpen)

P.S. - Sabathia pitched 256.2 innings in total last year. So far this year he's up to 252.2. I know he's been handled better this year in terms of rest, but who's to say he won't be gassed by game 7 on the heels of back-to-back short rest outings?

Kinda proves my point We're starting the world series, and he still hasn't eclipsed his inning total when he pitched only a few innings in the NLDS. I don't think it was the inning total even affects him, it was more that he had been abused so many times in a row and couldn't catch his breath. But we'll see.

[Soa]

Ok my assessment of this series.

1. These teams are pretty much dead even on match ups with the exception of the Closer. Mo is a rock and I still don't fully trust that Lidge is back yet.

2. I think the Yankees 3 man rotation will end up biting them in the ass in the end. CC is a helluva pitcher, but letting a great offensive team see him 3 times in 9 days doesn't seem too wise to me. He will get roughed up at least once I guarantee it.

3. I have no faith whatsoever in Cole Hamels. I think the Yanks will light him up in Game 3, and then Game 7 if he pitches again.

I'm picking the Phillies in 7 but by no means am I completely confident about it. I say they take games 2, 4, 5, and 7 while the Yanks take games 1, 3, and 6. The only result that would shock me is if the series went less than 6 games. Here's hoping for that epic 7 game clash everyone has been waiting several years for.

[Vedder]

I forgot they faced each other earlier in the season. My numbers are still correct, no one has a large sample size and the only one who does is batting under .150. There are a lot of 0fer6s in there too. Stats are a measure of performance, no matter how much ESPN blowhards distort them. Used correctly, they paint an accurate picture. Regardless, it's better than saying "The Yankees will win because of Kate Hudson and Jeter's calm eyes".

Not entirely sure where you're getting your numbers from, but Baseball Reference has Ibanez at 11/40 for a .275 lifetime BA in 43 PA. There's only multiple 0-6ers if you don't count postseason stats and even then it's only 2. :D

6 Phillies have good OPS vs. Sabathia too, but yeah... most of them have too small of a sample size to worry too much about it either way.

[Orph]

Phillies DH in game 1 against CC, Brett Myers

[Penthesilea]

Phillies DH in game 1 against CC, Brett Myers

Why do you think he's on the roster?

[Cephius]

Not entirely sure where you're getting your numbers from, but Baseball Reference has Ibanez at 11/40 for a .275 lifetime BA in 43 PA. There's only multiple 0-6ers if you don't count postseason stats and even then it's only 2. :D

6 Phillies have good OPS vs. Sabathia too, but yeah... most of them have too small of a sample size to worry too much about it either way.

I took it right from the MLB matchup page, maybe it didn't count ones from back when CC was a rookie or something.