2009 MLB season discussion*

[pohibaba]

Doesn't that(the beef/dislike/hatred/whatever you want to call it) pretty much go for the national media against Philadelphia teams for any sport, on any level from whatever/college/professional.

I've honestly never noticed any "hate" for a Philadelphia team from the national media, I think you just notice it more because of bias. Try being a fan of any team on the West Coast, you'll be wishing for them to hate your team because it will at least lead to some discussion of them.

[Soa]

Baseball Prospectus posted its projected rankings for the upcoming season

Interesting notes are the Yankees finishing in 3rd place, the A's winning the AL West, and the best record in the NL being 89-73. They also project Roy Halladay to be 15-10 with a 3.49 ERA, which seems awfully bad considering the quality is offense he'll see is far worse than what it was in the AL East.

[Bozo]

I've honestly never noticed any "hate" for a Philadelphia team from the national media, I think you just notice it more because of bias. Try being a fan of any team on the West Coast, you'll be wishing for them to hate your team because it will at least lead to some discussion of them.

I'm sure being biased has something to do with it BUT... I still remember that old guy from ESPN (Jon Miller?) talking about how Utley has "improved"(defensively) for one example. Not saying there isn't bashing on any other teams, because honestly I don't really follow other cities teams.

After the Halladay deal Phillies news was pretty fucking quiet until recently. Somehow talking about one single football game took almost a weeks worth of time on a Mon-Fri 1 hour talk show.

[Cephius]

Baseball Prospectus posted its projected rankings for the upcoming season

Interesting notes are the Yankees finishing in 3rd place, the A's winning the AL West, and the best record in the NL being 89-73. They also project Roy Halladay to be 15-10 with a 3.49 ERA, which seems awfully bad considering the quality is offense he'll see is far worse than what it was in the AL East.

Haha yeah, I saw that. I think that the one major flaw of PECOTA is that it tends to slightly overvalue youth (hence the As and Rays getting a bit more credit than they probably deserve) but hey, it's been laughed at before and then turns out to be really close to the truth. iirc, it came close to predicting the breakout year for the Rays 2 years ago, so we'll see

[Bregor]

Baseball Prospectus posted its projected rankings for the upcoming season

Interesting notes are the Yankees finishing in 3rd place, the A's winning the AL West, and the best record in the NL being 89-73. They also project Roy Halladay to be 15-10 with a 3.49 ERA, which seems awfully bad considering the quality is offense he'll see is far worse than what it was in the AL East.

Nationals have a winning record... I guess Strasburg's gonna pitch 33 complete game shutouts amirite?

Also, PECOTA's very big on the "regression to the mean" thing, they rarely account for a team (or player for that matter) being epicly good or bad. They don't project any 100-win or 100-loss teams, even though there's been one or the other (or both) eight of the last nine seasons.

[Cephius]

Nationals have a winning record... I guess Strasburg's gonna pitch 33 complete game shutouts amirite?

Also, PECOTA's very big on the "regression to the mean" thing, they rarely account for a team (or player for that matter) being epicly good or bad. They don't project any 100-win or 100-loss teams, even though there's been one or the other (or both) eight of the last nine seasons.

As for the Nats, I definitely agree with PECOTA on this one. Maybe not a winning team, but certainly around .500. They signed Marquis and Batista to help with rotation depth, got Capps from the Pirates and Bruney from the Yankees to help a horrid bullpen, and they have a solid young core of players. Dunn and Zimmerman in the middle of the lineup will score a lot of runs (again).

[Kang]

Yikes. So the A's signed Sheets for $10 million. Taking a big risk on him with all the problems he's had in his career. So I'm guessing since Oakland signed him a year after he became an FA, they don't have to give any picks to Milwaukee via his type A FA status? At least they would have that going for him if he goes down hurt.

Edit* Yikes Halladay going 15-10? I doubt it. Now that Doc will actually have a decent offense to give him lots of run support, he's gonna have close to 20 wins this season.

[Melena]

Even if it was a multi year deal I don't think any picks would have had to be given to the Brewers since he did not pitch at all last year. He had no contract or ties to anyone for the 09 season. He was about to sign with Texas till he found out he had that tendon problem, but that was it.

[fren.]

Just curious as to what the great advance minor league scouts of BG have to say.

Heh.

It knocked down, probably the best hitter in the minors (definitely the best offensive catching prospect) from the top 3-5, to 19th (mainly because there's questions about his catching abilities) place, behind guys like Ackley who haven't even sniffed the minors yet (AFL)

Law ranked Martin Perez ahead of Neftali Feliz (both from the Rangers farm system) which is just borderline criminal. You don't have to be a scout to realize half of these lists are just guys riding the hype machine or making up their own ranking system as they go along.

That PECOTA thing is pretty worthless. Phillies finishing in third, Royals scoring more runs the Cleveland, etc. The picks from last year were way off also.

[Moss]

My point was people are always like "Bah that guy doesn't know what he's talking about" just because they see their teams top prospect lower than they expected.

I didn't check out the first list, but maybe the dude just values having a position enough to overcome pure hitting stats.

As for Law, Feliz was dominant in short relief last year, but Law cites questions if he can be a starter. I don't know anything about Martin Perez, but apparently he is a pretty sick southpaw who is still only 18. It's just a list of prospects, I think potential is weighted more than immediate major league readiness.

I just use the lists for in-depth info about top prospects I haven't heard of. I knew all about Heyward, Freddie Freeman I had heard was good but knew little else(was expecting a black guy), and I was curious about Arodys Vizcaino.

I don't necessarily trust the ordering as much as I do the actual scouting like where guys rank on the 20-80 scale and general views on prospects.

[volcanicweather]

Man way too many Twins fans are way too excited about signing Jim Thome... the guy is like Randy Johnson old. Maybe it's because he won't have a chance to kill us anymore like he did with every team he was with throughout his career

[fren.]

It's not that he was ranked lower than expected, he's considered one of the best pure hitting prospects in the game by virtually every source out there. Dropping him to 19th place behind guys who haven't even stepped foot in the minors is fucking dumb.

I don't care about these lists either, it was just amusing seeing him get slotted there.

Law is a smart dude, but he gets caught up in the hype and lets bias get in the way of a lot of his work.

Edit: ^^^ You should be happy about the Thome signing, getting Young the fuck out of the outfield is a bonus..but sending Kubel out there isn't any better.

[Cephius]

Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS is on MLB network right now, as if Met fans weren't depressed enough already

[*Shinzon*]

Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS is on MLB network right now, as if Met fans weren't depressed enough already

I hate you

[Bozo]

Placido Polanco got his head rubbed by the Phillie Phanatic. The things you can get away with in a big furry green costume... anyone have one for sale?

[Rhinox]

Yikes. So the A's signed Sheets for $10 million. Taking a big risk on him with all the problems he's had in his career. So I'm guessing since Oakland signed him a year after he became an FA, they don't have to give any picks to Milwaukee via his type A FA status? At least they would have that going for him if he goes down hurt.

Edit* Yikes Halladay going 15-10? I doubt it. Now that Doc will actually have a decent offense to give him lots of run support, he's gonna have close to 20 wins this season.

Billy beane aint stupid. It's a gamble for sure but he's banking that Ben will have a solid season so he can unload him at the trading deadline for prospects. Otherwise this doesn't make sense and goes against what Billy Beane usually does.

[Headspace]

Reds signed Orlando Cabrera. Worth it?

Remember, this was a team last year that was anchored at SS by all stars Jerry Hairston Jr. and Alex Gonzalez.

[Rhinox]

Orlando Cabrera was over the hill about three hills ago.

[OctavoGilgamesh]

Billy beane aint stupid. It's a gamble for sure but he's banking that Ben will have a solid season so he can unload him at the trading deadline for prospects. Otherwise this doesn't make sense and goes against what Billy Beane usually does.

Yeah but 10 million was probably 4 million above his next highest bidder. And even at 6 million, I'd be a bit worried about my investment. The guy has no hit stuff, he just can't lay off the cheeseburgers and keep himself into shape.

In before someone pointing out Tim Lincecum's lifestyle and the fact that he hasn't been hurt. I'll point out that Benny was pretty healthy early on in his big league career as well, but eventually it just went down hill.

[Rhinox]

and the Reds traded for Aaron miles.


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