2009 MLB season discussion*

[Orph]

Heh, yeah, he was a steal. I can imagine how much the Mets are kicking themselves for not picking him up every time they put a 87 year old Sheffield or a kid who can't catch fly balls in the outfield...

you mean this guy?
http://cdn3.sbnation.com/fan_shot_im...rphail_201.gif

[Cephius]

He's the one lol. Kid can hit a bit but his defense obviously is pretty atrocious

[Absolutely Virtue]

Ibanez has exceeded expectations in Philadelphia so far. His production has been just unreal. It's getting to the point where I have to drop the charade of disliking him.

You may want to hold your judgment until he gets to hit against teams other than the pathetic Nats, lol.

That game must have been sick if you root for the Phils, although I realize they come back on everyone. But two grand slams? Meanwhile, for those of others on the other end, it was absolutely mortifying. I've grown accustomed to watching the Nationals bungle everything this year, but something about last night seemed even more terrifying than usual. And the worst part about it is, we can't do a fucking thing about it. No pitching in the minors, no help on the way, and no decent prospects to trade. We might end up being WORSE than last year, and we dropped 102 games. Good thing I'm not in for several thousand bucks for my season tickets.

/wrists

[Cephius]

To be fair, Adam Dunn is vastly underrated and is a stud at getting on base and driving in runs. He's a great player to build your lineup around... while he's in his prime. That kid who pitched against the Mets on Sunday (his name escapes me atm and I can't be bothered to look it up right now) had really good stuff and looked promising too. The Nats need a bullpen and a couple more solid starters.. they may not be as far off as you think. Their offense isn't that bad anymore.

[Weeks]

Just as many people massively overrate Dunn as underrate him. He's a worse offensive player than his HR totals suggest. Combine that with his execrable defense, and he's only been worth 9 wins over replacement total in the last four seasons. That's not only not "great," it's slightly below league average.

Edit: Actually it's more like right at league average.

[Trichocyst]

Ibanez has produced against everyone the Phillies have played so far. Infamously (among my friends) I've tried to hold a grudge against him because my custom jersey is also #29, but he's one of the big reason the Phillies are overcoming piss poor starting pitching. 39 home runs in 18 games? It's obscene. He's providing a lot of life for the team at a time when they probably deserve to be in the basement of the NL East. I'm sure he'll drop off, but for right now he owns the town.

And that game was really wild to watch. So many ups and downs. Blanton comes out looking like he's going to be throwing flame and ends up giving up three of the longest home runs I've seen at the park. Out of hand. I love the way this team seems to come back every night from the 7th inning on, but I'm hoping they will settle in and not have to rely on improbable heroics.

At least the Nationals should be getting Strasburg right? That kid will either get eaten alive by Ryan Howard (power vs. power) or make his life miserable every time they play (being that he strikes out 3 out of every 4 batters he faces right now). How about Joel Hanrahan against Howard? 0 for 7 with 6 strikeouts and a walk.

[Cephius]

Just as many people massively overrate Dunn as underrate him. He's a worse offensive player than his HR totals suggest. Combine that with his execrable defense, and he's only been worth 9 wins over replacement total in the last four seasons. That's not only not "great," it's slightly below league average.

Edit: Actually it's more like right at league average.

Except he's spending the majority of the time at 1B now, where he doesn't make many errors. The guy posted a 45.9 VORP 2 years ago. He's been a great offensive player any way you slice it, and now that he isn't playing the OF as much I bet his win shares go up as well. He has a 9 VORP this year already which is right up there with the elite players in the league.

[Weeks]

He's played 22 innings there, and he's been even worse there than in the outfield. UZR/150 of -37.7, which is impossibly bad for such an undemanding position.

[Ensam]

You may want to hold your judgment until he gets to hit against teams other than the pathetic Nats, lol.

That game must have been sick if you root for the Phils, although I realize they come back on everyone. But two grand slams? Meanwhile, for those of others on the other end, it was absolutely mortifying. I've grown accustomed to watching the Nationals bungle everything this year, but something about last night seemed even more terrifying than usual. And the worst part about it is, we can't do a fucking thing about it. No pitching in the minors, no help on the way, and no decent prospects to trade. We might end up being WORSE than last year, and we dropped 102 games. Good thing I'm not in for several thousand bucks for my season tickets.

/wrists

Nationals rotation very very soon

Strasburg
Zimmerman
Detwiler
Balester
Martis

Mix and match the last two

Ya'll gonna suck this year yeah but you should be a lot better in 1-2 years. That should be a very legit rotation, plus already several young hitting cornerstones at the ML level (Zimmerman, Dukes, Flores is nice for a C, ect).

This isn't a, say, Astro's or Pirate's situation where you have no hope of a future what so ever in your current system lol.

[Ensam]

He's played 22 innings there, and he's been even worse there than in the outfield. UZR/150 of -37.7, which is impossibly bad for such an undemanding position.

Would be better to use his career numbers since we're talking about a lot bigger sample size, nearly 1k innings at 1b.

1b: -11.5 /150
LF: -10.7 /150

Not much of a difference between the two when comparing him to the average at those positions. However, when you then take in positional adjustments, so looking at it over the field rather than against the average at that position, it becomes

1b: -24 /150
LF: -18.2 /150

And when you the consider that that only takes in range, errors, and DP for 1b/arm for OF, and not ability to pick balls out of the dirt and such, yeah, he's better off in LF. Especially since Nick Johnson is a good fielder.

I agree with you that just as many people overrate him that underrate him, but I don't know how you can hate on his offense, career .902 OPS. He makes a very very good DH.

Although one of the issues is that, Adam Dunn is a lot more of a #2 hitter than a #4-#5 hitter. His contact rates make him have a poor ability at driving in runs. He's much better suited as a #2 hitter, getting on base to then be driven in (and, of course, the massive HRs).

[Cephius]

Yeah, even though the numbers don't bear it out, I think he's better suited at 1B instead of LF due to his limited range. And let's face it, in the Nationals lineup he isn't batting anywhere but cleanup.

[Weeks]

I'm not hating on his offense, I'm just saying that he isn't a top 10 offensive player by any measure other than HR totals. A career .300 EQA and .384 wOBA is awfully good, but it puts him in the second tier with guys like Adrian Gonzalez.

[Absolutely Virtue]

Yeah, even though the numbers don't bear it out, I think he's better suited at 1B instead of LF due to his limited range. And let's face it, in the Nationals lineup he isn't batting anywhere but cleanup.

I do have hope for the Nats honestly, but the short-term humiliation is starting to wear me down.

Zimmermann (who pitched against the Mets this weekend) definitely looks legit. Has guts, throws hard, throws strikes. Detwiler is a maybe. Balester and Martis? Might get a decent starter out of the two. Hard to say. I'm decidedly on the fence about Strasberg. Of course I want him, but I don't want him at $50m, which is what Boras will ask for. Show me the list of #1 overall pick starting pitchers who are worth that much. You can't because there are zero of them. I'm old enough to remember plenty of "can't miss" pitching prospects. Ben McDonald, anyone?

I do, however, like our lineup this year. While Guzman isn't the prototypical leadoff hitter, he is the best we have. Our best should be:

1. Guzman SS
2. Johnson 1B
3. Zimmerman 3B
4. Dunn LF
5. Dukes CF
6. Kearns RF
7. Flores C
8. Hernandez 2B (I'd rather play Willie Harris here, but meh)

That is a legitimate offense. Our pitching sucks dick, but I think I'd rather lose games 10-8 than 6-0.

Wait for Kearns' terrible contract to expire, and replace him with a prototypical leadoff guy (or find one that can play 2B for Hernandez). Move Guz to the 6 hole. I can live with that.

Other people can argue far better about Dunn's numbers- I got out of the stats game when I quit playing fantasy. But Dunn also adds a psychological dimension to this team. He can legitimately mash the ball, and signing him was as much about buying credibility with the fans as it was winning. They had to do SOMETHING to throw us a bone. And I think we could have done a lot worse than Dunn.

Let me tell you about the fielding though- yikes. My seats are in left field, close enough to see the fear in his eyes every time the ball is hit to him. I will give him credit for trying, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I hold my fucking breath every time I see the ball coming towards us.

[Ensam]

What I find funny about Dunn's ungodly bad defense is that he's not that slow of a slow offensive player. He has a offensive speed score of 4.35. 5 is average, 3 is slow, 7 is fast. Just shows he knows how to run the basepaths, though.

[Weeks]

First, throw away the $50 million number. Strasburg is going to shatter the $10 million mark, but he won't get anywhere close to 50.

Second, assuming that the free agent market rebounds next offseason and then continues to increase at its usual rate (Yes, a big assumption, but it's the kind of extreme situation that would actually lead to Boras not getting laughed off the phone with his $50M figure), a pitcher only has to be worth about 2.2 wins per season through his first six seasons (Assuming his arbitration awards are roughly 40%, 60%, then 80% of his market value) to justify a signing bonus of $50 million. It would be more likely for Boras to ask for a $50 million, six year contract, which is a bit more complicated but which would generally be a much better deal for the club. Just so you know what we're talking about, Ted Lilly is a fairly consistent 2.6 win per season pitcher by FIP.

Yes, you would normally expect to get a very substantial discount on your #1 overall pick and it's very likely that you'd be better off going with Grant Green or someone with more reasonable demands, but 1) it's not easy finding ace caliber pitchers, 2) $50 million isn't happening anyway, and 3) this just illustrates how much the draft system depresses the market for amateur talent.

[Pringles]

I will give the Nats benefit of the doubt. I think in two-three years, they're going to be a very competitive team. I still say Jim Bowden leaving was more beneficial for the team than having him around. Give their minor league players a year or two more for development, and they're going to have a great team.

Their stadium is also an amazing place. Since the Nats came to town, I try to go to at least 3-4 games a year. And I absolutely love the new stadium compared to RFK. Only downside (plus for me) is the older seat ushers don't really care when once the 2nd inning starts, people move down to lower seats and they never say anything about it. Past 4 times I've gone, minus once, I've moved down entire sections without them saying a word to me.

[Bregor]

When Strasburg comes to DC, it'll actually give me a reason to see them play when the Cubs aren't in town. Hopefully they handle his workload well and don't Dusty-fy his arm like my team did to Prior and Wood. And yeah, $50 million is a pipe dream, so don't worry about that.

Also, lol @ Murphy, how long until they get an actual left fielder? Is Moises Alou still breathing?

[Trichocyst]

John Lannan really has it out for the Phillies best players. Can Hamels go a start without an opposing player removing him from the game? It's going to be his worst year.

[Viq]

WTS Brad Penny $5 or best offer

[Akiyama]

WTS Brad Penny $5 or best offer

WTT Pitching for Offense