2009 MLB season discussion*

[Viq]

Assuming he wants to sign with Texas and doesn't wuss out because it's the AL.

I think it's a safe bet. Before the season he was ready to sign with Texas, but they found something in his shoulder during his physical which put a damper on that deal. I'm at work and lazy, so that might be slightly off from what actually happened. Either way, he would've signed with Texas in the off-season, so it stands to reason that he'd join them mid-season. Also, I became a pretty big Ben Sheets fan when I lived in WI for a bit. I'll be pretty happy to see him back on the mound, even if it's for another playoff contender in the AL.

[Stiker]

I think it's a safe bet. Before the season he was ready to sign with Texas, but they found something in his shoulder during his physical which put a damper on that deal. I'm at work and lazy, so that might be slightly off from what actually happened. Either way, he would've signed with Texas in the off-season, so it stands to reason that he'd join them mid-season. Also, I became a pretty big Ben Sheets fan when I lived in WI for a bit. I'll be pretty happy to see him back on the mound, even if it's for another playoff contender in the AL.

Yes Viq, that is more or less what happened. Sheets reached an agreement with the Rangers and all that was left to pass a physical which he didn't.

Even when he started rehabbing with the Rangers' staff at the beginning of the season, the concern was "will he want to sign if we are out of it like we always are." That isn't really too big of a concern at the moment right now unless we completely tank, but even if we do, you can still make a play for Sheets saying he'd be more of a veteran arm with a rather young staff in future years.

[Ensam]

Braves have probably one of the harder schedules as well coming up soon. Looking at it, I'd be surprised if they didn't put them out of the division race (even if I think they don't have a shot anyway) after this.

Starting June 19th, it's @Boston for 3, Cubs for 1 (make-up game), then the Yankees for 3, BoSox again for 3, and Phillies for 3. If they could finish 6-7/7-6 on that run, I'd be amazed. My thoughts? 3-13, probably 5-8 at best. Even with 10 out of those 13 games at home, those teams are just way too strong for the Braves to hope to have a shot. Only one day off in that schedule too, and that's between the second Boston series and the Phillies.

It's hard for every NL east team though.

From June 9th-June 28th, marlins face
STL
@TOR
@BOS
NYY
BAL
@TB

And BAL is victim of the division and league they play in. They're probably a .500 team in the NL.

PHIL is lucky that they don't face the yankees but in that time span they still face
@NYM
BOS
TOR
BAL
@TB
@TOR

And Mets have to face Yanks twice
PHI
@NYY
@BOS
TB
STL
NYY

I'd say Braves have the easiest out of the 4 teams
PIT
@BAL
@CIN
@BOS
NYY
BOS

Yeah, they face BOS twice. But they get to face CIN instead of TOR, and they get to face PIT. Still by no means easy though and you could make a case that others have it easier.

Eitherway, NL east is about to take a beating.

Was has a stretch of
@TB
@NYY
TOR
BOS
12 games. Over under 2.5 wins? I'll take the under haha.

[Ensam]

Not to take anything away from Grienke, because he's having an incredible year, but his numbers are most likely going to inflate a bit as the season wears on. He started the year with a ludicrous streak of 30+ scoreless innings, iirc. His ERA since April is still great, but it's nearly a run higher than his season average. If that bears out for the rest of the season, then his numbers will be a lot closer to Halladay's. One thing you can bank on is that Doc will end up eatting more innings, which would likely put him over the top in the end.

Of course, who really cares? It's still early June. This time last year you would've thought Josh Hamilton was already a lock for AL MVP, maybe only being challenged by Carlos Quentin. Neither of them ended up being in contention.

Quentin was only out because of injury. But, I do agree with the assertion that you can't crown somebody in June, but somebody said to just give the award to Halladay now even though Greinke is having a better year.

As far as going forward, looking at their peripherals

K/9:
Greinke: 9.41
Halladay: 7.92

BB/9
Greinke: 1.34
Halladay: 1.08

HR/9
Greinke: 0.24 <-should raise
Halladay: 0.54

GB%
Greinke: 42.4%
Halladay: 55.7%

BABIP
Greinke: .309
Halladay: .302

FIP
Greinke: 1.81
Halladay: 2.56

For all intents and purposes, Greinke's peripherals show no real sign of slowing down. Yeah, he extremely likely won't keep a sub-2 ERA but that's not the point. Halladay certainly has the track record but what Greinke is doing is phenomenal.

And there's also Justin Verlander, who's second in the AL in FIP, finally pitching back to form.

[Akiyama]

It's hard for every NL east team though.

From June 9th-June 28th, marlins face
STL
@TOR
@BOS
NYY
BAL
@TB

And BAL is victim of the division and league they play in. They're probably a .500 team in the NL.

PHIL is lucky that they don't face the yankees but in that time span they still face
@NYM
BOS
TOR
BAL
@TB
@TOR

And Mets have to face Yanks twice
PHI
@NYY
@BOS
TB
STL
NYY

I'd say Braves have the easiest out of the 4 teams
PIT
@BAL
@CIN
@BOS
NYY
BOS

Yeah, they face BOS twice. But they get to face CIN instead of TOR, and they get to face PIT. Still by no means easy though and you could make a case that others have it easier.

Eitherway, NL east is about to take a beating.

Was has a stretch of
@TB
@NYY
TOR
BOS
12 games. Over under 2.5 wins? I'll take the under haha.

Yeah, I'll disagree. The Braves played the Blue Jays already, and that was during their low point of the year. I mean the Blue Jays low point that is. Atlanta caught them at the right time and swept them. I can't make excuses for the Pirates. Their team isn't very good, but will probably take 2/3 from Atlanta just because Atlanta, since last year, has like a 20-38 record against the NL Central.

Then the next three series are on the road, and don't discount the Reds. They've played very well, and Atlanta has to play them in their ballpark. It'd be different if it were a pitcher's ballpark, but even a hitter's ballpark won't help Atlanta hit, Haha.

Anyway, they get the Orioles.. who's only weakness is pitching because they can hit. Then Atlanta gets Cincy as I mentioned, and then they get to go to Fenway. After that, you think you're done, but no.. you have to go back home, where the team isn't playing well anyway, and play three against the potent Yankees lineup (which is like night and day comparing to the Braves) and then the Red Sox again.

Either way, like I said.. if Atlanta can win about 40% of those games, I think ithat's good. I don't see them going .500 on that section of the schedule.

I'd take the under for the Nats. They might beat Toronto once. As far as the Phillies go, I think they have it best, what with facing the Blue Jays twice. Toronto's offense is a farce. I still don't trust the likes of Scutaro and Aaron Hill performing that way all year. Halladay could probably beat the Phillies twice though.

[Ensam]

Yeah, i think for Atlanta and Marlins, if you finish with a .500 record in June, that's a real good thing. I think this is basically the month of seeing if either team can jump back to contention or not. Every team has a rather easy July. So trying to catch up then is saying you need the other team to lose, rather than we need to win. But in June, every team should be losing, so if you want to catch up, it's now up to you to win.

[Soa]

The Phils should come out of that stretch over .500, but their history of ineptitude in interleague play suggests that they may not. Hopefully the Mets will get buried this month so we won't have to worry about any collapses come September.

[Bregor]

Stephen Strasburg's payday Day one of the MLB draft is today. I wonder if the Mariners are just waiting to see if Washington balks at Boras's ridiculous $50 million threats.

[pohibaba]

I really wish that Major League Baseball would allow teams to trade picks. I think the Giants would give the Mariners a few of our young stud pitchers for Ackley; he could help our team immensely. Oh well, we'll take either Matzek or Wheeler and be happy about it.

[Pringles]

I don't think they'll balk at it to be honest. The team knows they need to draft the best player in the draft right now to energize their fan base. Strasburg is their best chance. He illustrates what their most important need is for the future (SP) and the fact that he is close to being major league ready is also a major factor.

It's not as if the Nationals don't have the money for it. They were a team last winter willing to put down $150 million plus on Mark Teixeira. They are middle of the road when it comes to worth in baseball too:
The Business Of Baseball - Forbes.com
Granted they are down this year due to the economy:
Forbes: Reds rank 25th in MLB value

I would say they have the money for his 50 million dollar request. If they didn't, they wouldn't be going around saying they will be drafting him with their number 1 pick. Even with Boras as his agent, they know they need to draft and sign him as soon as possible to get him working in their system. Everyone who watches baseball and lives around here in the Washington D.C area knows that Strasburg is the pick. If they pick over him or don't sign him, there is going to be a lot of even more angry fans with the team. I know my friends who are Nats fans have been saying signing Strasburg has been their one hope for hte team as of late.

[Cephius]

Are the Nats really going to give him a 50 mil signing bonus before he even throws a pitch? I heard that the highest yet is Mark Prior who got 15 (and turned out to be a good SP, so that's okay I guess) but come on, 50 mil?! Who can afford that? Who would want to!

[pohibaba]

He won't actually get 50; that's just a starting point that Boras wants to start at. Prior has the current record for a contract from a draftee (10.5m+5m bonus) and that will be shattered by Strasburg, but I would be honestly surprised if Strasburg walks out with more than $25 million.

[Cephius]

I guess we'll see. Boras is the best at what he does, even in this economy if the Nats won't sign him they'll threaten to find someone who will.

Someone on MLB.tv last night said it best, you shouldn't be able to retire before you throw a pitch in the majors. Not like it's Strasburg's or Boras's fault; the system is clearly messed up here.

[fren.]

Who can afford that? Who would want to!

Sox, Dodgers, Yanks, Mets to name a few. He won't get 50mil, but then again you're not talking about any ordinary prospect.

There's some good talent that's gonna fall due to signability concerns, I'm expecting to be pleased (Heathcott or Purke)

[Cephius]

I've heard the words "not any ordinary prospect" before. I remember when Lastings Milledge was the future of the Mets. How'd that go? Not to compare the two but.. until you see a guy in the majors, you just don't know. I'm sure the kid will do just fine, I just don't agree with the larger-than-life signing bonuses before he's even done anything.

[Ensam]

There's some good talent that's gonna fall due to signability concerns, I'm expecting to be pleased (Heathcott or Purke)

This is why I hate free agent compensation, because it does nothing but help the big market teams. They still get draft picks for lost players, which is fine and all. But because free agents affect the draft, that means that the Player Assocation then has a hand in it. Which is the whole reason we haven't seen true slotting. And then you have picks who should go to teams that need the talent but instead fall down to teams who'll pay the bill.

So that means that small market teams who do get a lot of draft picks, then have to not sign the best player available and instead sign those that they can afford, so that they can afford all of their picks. Meanwhile large market can just stock pile on talent at the end of the first round. It's horrible.





And show me Bobby Borchering! Bunch of pitchers I'd rather see but they likely won't be there by pick 18. Based off the pitchers that will be there, I'd rather have Borchering.

[Ensam]

I guess we'll see. Boras is the best at what he does, even in this economy if the Nats won't sign him they'll threaten to find someone who will.

If I were the Nats I'd be dicks and be like "you don't lower your price, we'll have the #1 draft pick next year, we'll take him again. You don't lower your price, we'll probably have the #1 draft pick in '11, we'll take him a third time. If he wants to play in the majors in the several years, he lowers his price. Have fun in Indy ball."

I don't think he'll break 20m though, which is still fucking obscene.

[fren.]

This is why I hate free agent compensation, because it does nothing but help the big market teams. They still get draft picks for lost players, which is fine and all. But because free agents affect the draft, that means that the Player Assocation then has a hand in it. Which is the whole reason we haven't seen true slotting. And then you have picks who should go to teams that need the talent but instead fall down to teams who'll pay the bill.

So that means that small market teams who do get a lot of draft picks, then have to not sign the best player available and instead sign those that they can afford, so that they can afford all of their picks. Meanwhile large market can just stock pile on talent at the end of the first round. It's horrible.




And show me Bobby Borchering! Bunch of pitchers I'd rather see but they likely won't be there by pick 18. Based off the pitchers that will be there, I'd rather have Borchering.

Still trying to get over the Cole cockblock from last year.

http://blog.nj.com/yankees_main/2008...errit-cole.jpg

Fuck you!

[Bregor]

you shouldn't be able to retire before you throw a pitch in the majors.

You mean the NFL and NBA are doin' it wrong? Someone remind me again what Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez got in their contracts, or countless college freshman and high school (before the rules changed) basketball players who got tons of guaranteed money before one game as a pro. It's sad but MLB teams are following suit, paying more money at the draft and ignoring the "slot recommended prices."

I think part of it is that the average baseball fan is more educated about player development. Between college baseball being more televised, more comprehensive prospect guides, and fantasy baseball (yes, I know, lol) people are better informed about the decisions a front office makes. There have been some high profile misses concerning the first pick of the draft, namely the Pirates passing on B.J. Upton in 2002, and the Padres taking Matt Bush due to his signability in 2004. Pittsburgh, who's been one of the most frugal and slot-conscious teams over the last decade, overpaid for Pedro Alvarez last year, so it looks like the price of draft picks is trending upward.

$50 million for Strasburg is utterly absurd, but I do think it will fall in the range of $20-25 million, which is still too much but at least I could swallow that if I were a GM. I agree that the Nats are kind of screwed, because of the tremendous hype and name recognition already surrounding Strasburg, if they pass on him it will pretty much be like waiving a white flag over DC.

[Cephius]

Yeah, I know the NBA and NFL do the same thing. I just think baseball is a much more mental game, and that's something you can't evaluate well until a guy gets up to the majors. In basketball and football it's about pure physical ability, and you can psych yourself up to go out there and bust some skulls. Baseball is different, you have to remain composed (especially when you're a pitcher) and in control of your emotions. Even emotional guys like Zambrano and Joba are relaxed and in control on the mound most of the time, you can't let things get the best of you. There have been a multitude of examples of guys who get up to the bigs and can't handle the pressure, you don't see that in the NBA or NFL as much. Not to say there isn't pressure in the NFL or NBA, but you can always jump a little higher, or block stronger, or hit a guy harder in those sports. Baseball is different.

But hey, it's the sports world we live in, and that kid should go and make as much as much possible because any of us would do the same thing.