BCNM Drops Programmed Into Orb?

[Volition]

I recently saw this posted on FFXIAH, and was just wondering if anyone has any idea about this?

http://i561.photobucket.com/albums/s.../orbinfogm.png

Basically stating that the drops for each BCNM are pre-programmed when you get the orb. I just want to know if I'm understanding it right, or not.

[Greenjade]

If that was the case, it is the orb's fault that we have shitty drops for some runs. ; ;

[Thorny]

Random number generated based on the time you get orb, trade orb, or open box.. doesn't really change anything.

[Greenjade]

If that would be the case, I wonder what would be the perfect time and all to garantee decent drops?

[yayaok]

full moon darksday, win battle facing north with taru in pt

[Pirian]

The very first time I got to Jeuno I randomly found that npc and happened to trade in 40 of my BS for an orb. Didn't really know what it was and fast forward 2 or 3 years (whenever they added PCC to the loot pool) it had been rotting in storage and I finally got around to leveling nin past 37 to 40 and used the orb and got PCC.

Moral of the story: it's not programmed from the moment you receive the orb.

[Gaea]

The very first time I got to Jeuno I randomly found that npc and happened to trade in 40 of my BS for an orb. Didn't really know what it was and fast forward 2 or 3 years (whenever they added PCC to the loot pool) it had been rotting in storage and I finally got around to leveling nin past 37 to 40 and used the orb and got PCC.

Moral of the story: it's not programmed from the moment you receive the orb.

Um, not really. All it says is that after the patch, the "number" as people call it that represents the orb had a different translation when used to generate the chest.

What people are implying is that when you buy an orb, it's given its own unique ID or number or whatever. This number is used to generate the treasure pool after the fight Now, all you are saying is that your so called number fell under a different translation after the update because the treasure pool was altered. That doesn't disprove the theory at all.

Personally, I have my own superstition. I've never tossed an orb after I've used it. I've always turned it back into Shami for him to discard it.

Eitherway, this is a very interesting theory. The closest way to try to prove it would be to have SEVERAL people buy an orb at an exact vana'diel time. A few of them should get a similar "value" if the seed for the number is based on a timestamp and make several chests identical after each battle.

Of course, even if all the treasures turn out to be different, all that proves is that "time" is likely not the seed to generate the number that translates into "what drops".

Needless to say,it's an interesting theory and just another fun superstition in FFXI.

[dejet]

The very first time I got to Jeuno I randomly found that npc and happened to trade in 40 of my BS for an orb. Didn't really know what it was and fast forward 2 or 3 years (whenever they added PCC to the loot pool) it had been rotting in storage and I finally got around to leveling nin past 37 to 40 and used the orb and got PCC.

Moral of the story: it's not programmed from the moment you receive the orb.

you held onto a orb for 3 years....?
anyways even if this is false the point is right. if it was the case people would of found a way to read what its *number* is and place it as *this drops that*and shit.

like they did with the WS's people found the info that sends it to our side so we know how many WS points we have built up.

maybe its part of the formula but really it does not mean anything because there is random crap thrown in there at some point.

and Gaea idk if that could even work, it could go by MS's and not jsut a second. who knows it be really hard to test. sorta like the kirin tele people try and go at same time and still end up in pot room.

[Gaea]

you held onto a orb for 3 years....?
anyways even if this is false the point is right. if it was the case people would of found a way to read what its *number* is and place it as *this drops that*and shit.

like they did with the WS's people found the info that sends it to our side so we know how many WS points we have built up.

maybe its part of the formula but really it does not mean anything because there is random crap thrown in there at some point.

and Gaea idk if that could even work, it could go by MS's and not jsut a second. who knows it be really hard to test. sorta like the kirin tele people try and go at same time and still end up in pot room.

Yeah, you'd need a pretty large sample size, but it would still be difficult to test. Even if SE came right out and said "yes it is the orb, but the information regarding it is server side" we'd still have to find out what the drops are the hard way so it really doesn't change anything.

If people are looking for a huge discovery on how to know the items that each orb is going to drop so they only bother with "good orb" they'll be waiting a LONG time.

[Tsuko_Asura]

I'd be much more inclined to believe that the drops are decided when you initially trade an orb, due to the potentially-extensive waiting period before the options for battlefields appears after you trade an orb for the first time, that's completely absent if you were to exit the menu, and initiate the field a second time.

[Tubbers]

That is not what he is stating. He is stating that Orbs hold information: "each Orb has different data depending on what items drop." This would imply that after you complete the BCNM, it saves different info depending on what dropped, not that the orb's existing info causes certain items to drop.

[Thorny]

I'd be much more inclined to believe that the drops are decided when you initially trade an orb, due to the potentially-extensive waiting period before the options for battlefields appears after you trade an orb for the first time, that's completely absent if you were to exit the menu, and initiate the field a second time.

Fenrir and Windurst 9-2 certainly don't drop anything and those are BY FAR the longest load times I've seen.

@Greenjade : Random numbers are generated by looking at the millisecond of a computer's clock time and using it as a 'seed' to do several calculations that result in a seemingly random number. There is no optimal time humans could figure out, by sheer virtue of how small a time period each is and lag screwing with you.

[Mend]

Seems like there is no way to figure it out, so I'm going to worry more about keeping myself alive long enough to beat a BCNM.

[LinktheDeme]

anyone just stop to think that the only data on the orb is the fact that it's cracked or not? They probably just have a variable on the orb to change if it is broken or not and it is too much of a liability to give an orb out with the wrong variable plus against their non reimbursement policy etc.

GMs never know anything more like cops that do the whole make up rules as they go along thing (blow in this or your arrested etc). I don't see why one GM's response would validify anything because of one GM's crackpot theory but it must be true because it came from a GM amirite?

[Pyree]

A lot of people in here have a gross misunderstanding of how pseudo-random number generators work...

They only need to be seeded once, and after that any request for a random number is just read off a list. When one person asks for a random number, it gives them it and then moves on to the next number when another person asks for one. This means that when two people ask for a random number at the same time, they will get different numbers. The number generator can only process one request at a time, so even if you time it perfectly with someone else, one of the two requests must get processed first and then the number generator will move onto the next number on the list for the other person.

Basically, there is no way to guarantee two people get the same random number. That wouldn't be very random. Furthermore, there is no optimal game time for obtaining a certain number, it would be stupid to implement random numbers by running the current time through an algorithm.

Keep in mind that the NA GM's at least are not really employees of SE and are not at all close to the development team. They can know that an item has internal data on it because they would know that's an item they can't reimburse, however I wouldn't think that they would have the power of knowing what exactly that data is. My suspicion is that this GM was guessing, and I would guess that the internal data is actually just whether or not the orb has been used yet or not. That information is definitely stored on it, and I doubt anything more is.

[Silenka]

People in customer service can and will make up BS answers that sound good to get their point across. The point here was "no I can't reimburse this", the reason was probably BS.

[orson]

Too many factors to really test conclusively in my opinion.

[Byrthnoth]

Well, there are two sets of random numbers to generate. First is which slots will load, then it's which items will load into each slot. Both vary between BCNMs even within the same orb. It's possible that you generate all 10 random numbers right when you get your orb, then they're just interpreted in the context of the BCNM you do but that would just be unnecessary and asking for abuse. I mean, if you could work out what came from what slot/random number range on BCNMs then you could choose the BCNM that gives you the best gil for your specific orb. That would be ridiculously stupid for SE to put into the game purely from a security standpoint.

There are certain trends within BCNM groups. For instance, 3-man BCNM60s have 6 drops that are 100% (possibly with the exception of Shots in the Dark.) In fact, you're always guaranteed to get 9 drops from Up in Arms (unless it chooses a rare item you and your party already have, of course.)

If anyone is interested in doing statistics on the BCNM system, here are a few excel spreadsheets I collected over the years:
http://www.geocities.com/jheregls/jh...Pages/dbts.xls
http://www.geocities.com/jheregls/jh...bservation.xls
http://www.geocities.com/jheregls/jh...s/UpInArms.xls
http://www.geocities.com/jheregls/jh...RoyalJelly.xls

I've collected a few runs of other BCNMs/ISNMs, but not really enough to justify spreadsheets.

[heavensword]

Maybe he just means that the orb has different data attached to it after it is used, so he can't tell if the guy used it then dropped it or not. (obviously without searching through chat logs...)

[Spekkio]

this even assumes that the value is based on a PRNG and not just a simple ID. first person ever to buy an orb gets 000001, second gets 000002, and so on. hash that for your drop table and BOOM. absolutely no predictability. at all. this even assumes that it pulls the drop table based on IDs and other data stored in the item which is in no way proven or even the existence of any such unique ID.

the only known fact is that the item contains some form of hidden property that allows the game to check if it's cracked or not. is it a table on the server of all IDs that check off as orbs are used? is there a simple boolean stored in the item data that states if it's cracked or not? no idea, and there's no way to infer based on the loose information the GM gave which is probably third or fourth hand from anyone who actually knows.

it's entirely possible that this policy is designed to counteract someone using a cloud evoker and then a monarch orb, dropping each, and asking a GM for a new, uncracked pair of orbs. if i could get away with that, i'd have made 3 bahamuts out of 1, not to mention 2 ouryus. i think that too much stock is being placed in a vague bit of information that may not even be entirely accurate.