Thalassocrat, bad luck or bad crafter?

[ringthree]

A lot of that information, however, is founded in trial and error. Which means (as far as crafting is concerned) if you're not backing up your placebo with a sufficient sample of results, you'll have Sath on you within five seconds.

Even then, there is a difference between sharing battle strategies and sharing your bread and butter, only to have everyone and your mother destroy your market with malicious intent in five seconds just because they can.

I am not saying it is not placebo either though. I do think it is superstition and has no real effect on crafting at all. But I still do it anyway when I am crafting, because it doesn't hurt anything either.

Don't tempt the fates. I generally follow this golden rule.

Yelling at people because they do something you believe is incorrect even though you know it does no harm is pretty Neoish in my eyes. I have no problem with telling people it does nothing (because it does nothing) but I am not going to get upset at someone because they want to do it even when they know it does nothing.

[Weeks]

It's pretty apparent that most of the folks on this forum have a limited and rather abstract knowledge of statistics. Thousands or even hundreds of trials are not always necessary to establish statistical significance. I'd imagine there are many crafters out there who are running appropriate trials to test out their theories, but for the obvious reasons mentioned earlier the most vocal are those who have failed to establish any patterns.

If people really want to contribute to our understanding of crafting, the best thing they can do right now is to start keeping and sharing meticulous records of t0 and t1 HQ/NQ/break percentages, since there is so much disagreement on what these are supposed to be. The difference between a 5% and 10% t1 HQ rate (The low and high end) can be huge in establishing statistical significance without an unreasonable volume of data.

[Dontkare]

You're allowed to have them.

KEEP THEM THE FUCK OUT OF MY CRAFTING FORUM YOU IGNORANT FUCK.



http://www.coedhumor.com/images/post...fuck%20out.jpg

I'm not sure if I buy into this whole day/weather/direction stuff, but for me, I'd rather err on the side of caution just on the off-chance it's real. It's the same deal with TH for me.

[Indi]

So I've been synthing these as of late and so far I'm 5/10 on it.

10 synths and 5 breaks.

I have 102 WW, 60 Smithing and 60 GS (I get imagery here to push it to 60)

I know synths with 2 sub crafts have a higher break rate but... I had two back to back breaks on these synths. I'm either;

1. Below the WW cap or
2. Being a craft with 2 sub crafts, this break rate is typical
3. I'm incredibly bad luck.

Which is it? and if its answer 1, anyone know the real skill cap for it?

I do these with 106 skill (3 from items, 3 from adv support), 60 smith, 60 gs, 'overwhelming' earth aura supporting a woodworking moglification. So far I'd say I'm around 7/7 or so doing these on any old day pretty much except ice day for people. For the superstitious I face east when doing them. So.. I'd say bad luck or maybe the extra +4 does something magical. I just went 2/12 and 1/12 on HQ staves my past two attempts at hq staves on ice day/new moon myself so if you figure out how to get rid of the bad luck lemme know.

[noodles355]

Based on that little argument about day/direction/moon/whatever, sorry it's late but didn't someone do like a test of 1000 ash wands or something similar testing HQ rate on different days/moon phases?

Can't remember what results were though. Whether you belive in any of it or not, it's neither been proven or disproven, so there's really no reason not to work with it.

And no I don't believe in direction/day/moon doing anything, but untill it's proven, you don't lose anything by working with it, so you might aswell.

[Codex]

price check


what do these sell for on your servers?

[Darus Grey]

Is a sample size of 500,000+ good enough for you day/weather/moon morons?

Almost all the same item. Yes, I'm fully aware of what I admit to by posting this.

http://www.darusgrey.org/lolcrafters.jpg

[jimbobsonofgod]

Is a sample size of 500,000+ good enough for you day/weather/moon morons?

Almost all the same item. Yes, I'm fully aware of what I admit to by posting this.

[/IMG]

But which way were you facing ?

[Darus Grey]

Whatever way I felt like at a given moment.