Not to diminish the point that it's very unlikely to come out of any Dynamis city zone with one or less AF pieces nowadays, but the numbers of Vanguard pre-boss are actually a lot lower. Bastok, for example, has 198 Vanguard + NMs before the boss, which makes the chance at 0 or 1 AF (assuming n=200 and p=0.03) an order of magnitude higher, at 1.6%.
It's still very, very unlikely though. Before the updated drop rates, I would have easily supported a 1% rate in Northlands zones with the numbers of times we walked out completely or near empty-handed.
With regard to the OP, in general, our recent results don't support any noticeable change in drop rates in the last month; we've run every zone except Jeuno in that time span. We've received 8-18 AF in Xarcabard, 14-16 in Beaucedine (15 last night), and typically bad AF-1 and relic belt/cape drops in CoP zones which are par for the course for us.
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