Uh Oh We're in Trouble? First H1N1 Cytokine Storm/Other Problems

[thetruepandagod]

Bravo sir, you have officially trolled me. I don't think i have raged this hard in years.

[Obev]

I can't rage at something this hilarious. Do continue, Mr. Vajra. I think I sneezed once or twice yesterday. Should I prepare a will and stay indoors popping vitamin pills until the zombie apocalypse is over?

[Kerberoz]

Hmm... I always thought if I contracted a deadly disease I'd go to Madagascar and couch/sneeze/ejaculate on everyone just to win that fucking game before I die... but now Jamaica is looking more fun.

Don't forget to wear a helmet and strap swords on your arms before you turn into a zombie, so you can be a mini-boss.

[Vajra]

Creation of a swine flu vaccine will take longer than anticipated

Today: 9830 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 79 deaths WORLDWIDE.

Just so you know, (if u already didn't) they count and accumulate cases onto each other because once a person gets a virus, it's in them forever. Antivirals that help alleviate symptoms, just suppress it, to the point where it lies dormant, until you catch it the next season.

The Morality Rate of Swine-Origin Influenza(H1N1) has risen from 0.4% to 0.8% (that's a significant jump which makes sense, because as case numbers have risen, so have deaths); The Seasonal Influenza has a morality rate of 1.5%. Like I mentioned Avian Influenza(H5N1) currently has the highest Morality Rate (60%).

Here's a quote from the WHO's Dr. Chan on the progress of the vaccine's production:

The names of the pharmaceutical companies were not released, but reports indicate that executives from Sanofi-Aventis, GlaxoSmithKline and Baxter International were among those attending the meetings.

The manufacturers have not yet been told to produce a vaccine specifically for swine flu.

WHO officials had previously said that the production of a vaccine could begin in late May.

But flu experts told health officials attending the WHO's annual meeting in Geneva on Tuesday that the flu virus is not growing easily in laboratories, making it difficult for scientists to retrieve a seed stock necessary to make the vaccine.

Who ever said that GlaxoSmithKline and the other two companies mentioned at the meeting today were ALREADY making the vaccine was wrong. They were only preparing the materials necessary for producing the seed strain. They've isolated some strains that they believe might be alright but they still need to do a lot of testing and analyzing.

According,to the company executives present at the meeting, "growing the virus inside the laboratory, seems to be hard right now." So "it's difficult for them to obtain the seed stock necessary right now." It's not a simple task, and they've not been instructed by the WHO to go ahead and start producing the vaccine.

Right now they project that they will be able to start production by the end of May (that's when the WHO wants to give the thumbs up to start), which means they wont finish production til mid-November to early-December (aka peak of Flu season).

[Absolutely Virtue]

Vaj, if you're convinced we're all going to die, maybe your best course of action is to actually try to enjoy what's left of human civilization?

I mean, call me crazy, but if was certain the end was nigh, I'd spend a whole lot more time carpe diem-ing, and a whole lot less time working on your whole diarrhea of the keyboard thing.

[Brill Weave]

You do realize that over 100,000 people a year are hospitalized in the US yearly for complications arising from the regular old influenza virus? And of those 100,000 over 20,000 die, which ends up being well over an 8% mortality rate. See, I can use numbers to my advantage as well. The numbers are schewed because there have been so few cases. I guarantee you if there are more cases of swine flu, this number will go down.

You can keep arguing this all you want. People are not going to magically agree with you. You may also want to understand that getting the last word on the internet does not make you or your thoughts any less right or wrong.

[Vajra]

You do realize that over 100,000 people a year are hospitalized in the US yearly for complications arising from the regular old influenza virus? And of those 100,000 over 20,000 die, which ends up being well over an 8% mortality rate. See, I can use numbers to my advantage as well. The numbers are schewed because there have been so few cases. I guarantee you if there are more cases of swine flu, this number will go down.

You can keep arguing this all you want. People are not going to magically agree with you. You may also want to understand that getting the last word on the internet does not make you or your thoughts any less right or wrong.

I posted in my post that the Average Morality Rate of Seasonal Influenza is 1.5%. Also, yes I know there are more cases of the swine flu that are unreported than there are those which are reported / confirmed. There's probably Tens of thousands of cases unconfirmed (Even the WHO said this, I posted the quote earlier in this thread).

Yes that would reduce H1N1's current 0.8% morality rate if they were confirmed BUT there's always the chance that the people who 'might of died' from the flu, ended up dying in some other way, maybe an accident, or murder or something unexpected .

[Brill Weave]

Well here's the 64 million dollar question then. Why are you pushing this topic so hard? Have you personally been affected by swine flu? Have you recently travelled to Mexico? Do you feel that you are currently at risk anymore than anyone else in the world? I'm willing to bet all the answers to those question are a resounding No. If that's the case put down the cross and rosary beads, stop stirring the steaming koolaid, and go outside and don't worry.

[archibaldcrane]

Good lord my wonderful home state of Wisconsin actually has 650 confirmed H1N1 cases...

Confirmed Case: Swine Flu Found in Eau Claire County - WQOW TV: Eau Claire, WI NEWS18 News, Weather, and Sports

That seems like...kind of a lot. It's apparently the most confirmed cases of any state...Wisconsin? Weird.

[zoobernut]

You do realize that over 100,000 people a year are hospitalized in the US yearly for complications arising from the regular old influenza virus? And of those 100,000 over 20,000 die, which ends up being well over an 8% mortality rate. See, I can use numbers to my advantage as well. The numbers are schewed because there have been so few cases. I guarantee you if there are more cases of swine flu, this number will go down.

You can keep arguing this all you want. People are not going to magically agree with you. You may also want to understand that getting the last word on the internet does not make you or your thoughts any less right or wrong.

Vaj is being overly paranoid about it. But once again since this is the second time you did this I have to point out that if you are going to argue or refute something that someone is saying because it is false, wrong, paranoid, whatever try to do it in an intelligent way.

Mortality rate has NOTHING to do with how many people are hospitalized by the disease it is the ratio of deaths to the TOTAL number of infected. The total number of infected each year from the normal flu virus is in the millions this means the mortality rate for the regular flu is much much lower percent than what you said.

This kinda sounds familiar, I wonder why.... Oh right its because this was said on page 4 by myself and Tristam.

Edit: Seriously Vaj give it up, obviously the majority of the people reading these boards are healthy and not extremely old or an infant so no one is really scared of the flu.

[Tristam]

Who ever said that GlaxoSmithKline and the other two companies mentioned at the meeting today were ALREADY making the vaccine was wrong.

Oh yes, silly me, they're not making the vaccine, they're just doing the exact things they need to do so that they can "make" the vaccine. That must mean they won't make the vaccine, it certainly is why the British gov't ordered 90 million units.

Of course they can't poof a vaccine into existence immediately, sorry if you actually thought that was what I meant.

Edit: In case anyone isn't aware, the reason the decision about a vaccine isn't made immediately when CNN puts swine flu in big bold letters on a header is that if a vaccine is mass-produced for H1N1 then you forego production of vaccines on seasonal flu in many cases (although this really only affects developing countries, everyone be thankful we live in a western industrialized country). So the WHO has a really dicey situation, and no matter what they do they will be criticized one way or another. Either way, the public reaction (and the actual threat of) to this pandemic/epidemic is severe enough that a vaccine is practically mandatory. Which everyone involved in "potential" production of the vaccine figured out already.

edit: fun fact, mortality rate in the US is ~0.1% (all with preexisting conditions, common for flu), the reason mortality rate is even being discussed in the 0.4-0.8% range is because it's closer to 2% in mexico. Also, most people that get swine flu have mild symptoms, not many report the sorts of symptoms that the dude in Vaj's article described. There will be a big regional effect of this flu epi/pandemic.

[Brill Weave]

Zoober my post about the numbers was intentionally skewed to show how easy it is to twist whatever numbers are available to suit your means/argument etc. Try to give me a little more credit next time dood. The majority of your post is correct though, we are all moderately healthy in here with the exception of Ryko and Krye so stop worrying.

[zoobernut]

Sorry I did not get the sarcastic tone to your post. I should give you more credit.

You are right though diseases are very hard to track and understand and rate in dangerousness because it is very easy to skew the numbers or miss important factors.

The only time it is easy is when something has an extremely high mortality rate like 50%+ like the hemorrhagic fevers.

[Brill Weave]

It's ok I still love you in a manly nongay way. Well, maybe a little gay. But only sometimes!

[Kuya]

You love him in a gay way? If you love him why would you emasculate him by loving him not in a straight way, which is manly and correct, but in a gay way, which is most clearly effeminate and silly?

[Brill Weave]

I can only answer your query with this Kuya. 42

[Vajra]

All I can say, and there's no way anyone can downplay this fact, is that, this flu IS a summertime flu (which means it's basically gonna just be active all year round). It originated from Mexico, where the temperature was NOT cool or cold during the months of March/April (when it was reported to have begun).

Here's a website that has charts with the temperature averages all-year-round in Mexico: All-Year-Round Temperature Averages in Mexico

Basically, what I'm saying is that the only way this virus will go away is if we get the vaccine. Everyone knows that flu's never "go away" per say, they just "decline" during the summer (cause of less congregation indoors), and peak in the winter (more congregation indoors).

This does not apply to the Swine Flu, because the average temps in Mexico, when the epidemic began there, was from 70s-90s. Mexico is warm all year round, don't believe what the government says about a "decline during the summer" because it was already spring/ summer in Mexico, and it's almost summer here, as cases are still on the rise.
Only difference is that during the winter, we will see a giant spike really, especially if there's 10,200+ cases in the world already during the spring-summer season.

Recently there's been quite several more deaths, and many more hospitalizations, and deaths (NYC toddler/Utah Man/Missouri 28 yr. old (who was healthy and had no underlying health conditions)). I wont post the articles on those, but out of the death's so far, the 28 year old in Missouri was 100% healthy w/ no serious previously known underlying health conditions.

[Kuya]

You've given me so many new ideas on how to troll. I honestly appreciate you.

[Vajra]

You've given me so many new ideas on how to troll. I honestly appreciate you.

Go ahead then, I don't see anything wrong with my argument. I've never seen you give any actual logical input when you respond in this thread. All your responses have been one sentence, and meaningless posts, that have nothing to do with the topic at hand, other than to display your ability to troll/bash/flame or whatever you want to call it.

[Kuya]

Appreciation fists, bro.