Magic: The Gathering

[AlexRuzhyo]

Here's some notable exclusions. Some of them may lean more on the EDH side of things, but whatever.

Goblin Guide, Azusa, Scapeshift, Oracle of Mul-Daya, Pestermite, Serum Visions, Path to Exile, Gitaxian Probe, Aven Mindcensor, Inquisition of Kozilek, Damnation, Blood Moon, Lightning Helix, Æther Vial, Arcbound Ravager, Crucible of Worlds, Doubling Season, Dryad Arbor, Celestial Collonade, Creeping Tarpits, Auriok Champion, Linvala, Vesuva, Teferi, Grove of the Burnwillows, Glittering Wish, Horizon Canopy, Rings of Brighthearth, Sower of Temptation, Idyllic Tutor, Rhys the Redeemed, Greater Auramancy, Ranger of Eos, Death Baron, Bloodghast, Eldrazi Conscription, Vengvine, Oblivion Stone, Serra Ascendant, Archangel of Thune, Ensnaring Bridge.

[Krandor]

Wasn't Aether Vial already in the first Modern Masters? It's a fairly high demand card but doesn't fetch the same price as alot of the cards getting reprinted for both sets, so it makes sense it's not coming back.

[Viserdes]

Boxes are already selling at MSRP on ebay and i wouldnt be surprised if boxes fall below it a bit. I'm surprised how fast wotc killed the hype for this one, but to be fair this set seems like its a mythic lottery considering all but a few regular rares are terrible and all the mythics except for comet storm are decent to great.

Personally i went through the set, looked at every rare and said "would i be happy opening this?" and i found that 41 rares/mythics did not qualify for a yes from that statement. So basically, if i don't open a mythic it'll be horrible value opening packs, and since mythics show up 1 in 8, then im expected to pay 80$ on average before i see a random mythic, which all but goyf are even worth it. I don't consider foils to be significant since it is very unlikely to get a chase foil mythic/rare considering the large amount of chaff.

[AlexRuzhyo]

Wasn't Aether Vial already in the first Modern Masters? It's a fairly high demand card but doesn't fetch the same price as alot of the cards getting reprinted for both sets, so it makes sense it's not coming back.

It was, but I included it because it's expensive and not included in MM2.

[Weltall]

As far as making your money back on a box, it seems like about a 10-20% shot. This means not a lot will move and the prices of the cards they are attempting to make more readily available for Modern will stay almost the same.

If they wanted to fix it, the price-per-pack would be around $4.99.

On another note: my buy order arrived today so I'll be sleeving up Esper Dragons and playing my first live match in 4 years at FNM with no practice lol. Oh, and almost all of my cards are in Japanese and I have little idea what most do

[AlexRuzhyo]

Picture: Visual Guide the Rare/Mythic EV of MMA and MM15.

Is your rare worth more than the price of the pack or not?

It appears that this set shows the exact same price-pattern as a normal set, including the boost for higher MSRP.

Take your favorite standard legal (3.99 MSRP) set. Look through all of the rares - not mythics, just rares. Count how many are worth more than $4. (valuable commons/uncommons are worth noting, but are much harder to trade or sell at actual value at your typical trade or LGS in my experience).

Depending on set and metagame shifts/land cycles/pricing source, you will usually count between 6 and 12 rares, out of ~35-55 total rares. This is CONSTANT. Between 10% and 25% of rares in a set currently in standard are ever worth more than the price of the pack.

Choose a set and sort by your favorite price type. Using TCG Mid, here are my results. Rares worth more than $3 (slightly under MSRP):
•DTK - 10/53 rares, & 12/15 mythics (newest set, prices haven't stabilized yet)
•FRF - 2/35 rares, & 7/10 mythics
•KTK - 7/53 rares, & 5/15 mythics (fetchlands)
•M15 - 10/53 rares, & 8/15 mythics, 1 uncommon
•JOU - 4/35 rares, & 7/10 mythics
•BNG - 4/35 rares, & 6/10 mythics
•THS - 7/53 rares, & 10/15 mythics

The rest are bulk, or are at best a two dollar rare. The fact that some of the rares or mythics are worth two, five, or sixteen times the price of a pack doesn't matter - your chance of getting ANYTHING in the rare slot worth the price of the pack is, at best, around 25%. (In a typical set about half of the mythics are garbage, but it varies wildly depending on how WOTC allocated mythics in the set. Based on this I assume the 1/8th chance of a mythic has a 50/50 chance of being worth it, and can therefore ignore mythics for this type of price comparison.)

As of this writing (2015-05-08, 2:11 PM EST), TCGplayer mid sorted by price http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/search...Masters%202015 shows 9 rares in Modern Masters 2015 at or above MSRP of $10. (It also shows 13/15 mythics in this range, which is abnormally high - that's good!)

TL;DR including the higher MSRP, Modern Masters 2015 appears to follow the exact same value structure as any other booster release.

edit: for funzies, the (notably, out-of-print) Modern Masters, using a threshold of $6.99 has:

1 uncommon, 16 rares, 11/15 mythics

worth MSRP. Data are skewed by limited print run, and an out-of-print set. using 9.99 as MSRP for MMA gives 11 rares and those same 11 mythics.

http://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/com...erence/cr2uace

[Viserdes]

As far as making your money back on a box, it seems like about a 10-20% shot. This means not a lot will move and the prices of the cards they are attempting to make more readily available for Modern will stay almost the same.

If they wanted to fix it, the price-per-pack would be around $4.99.

On another note: my buy order arrived today so I'll be sleeving up Esper Dragons and playing my first live match in 4 years at FNM with no practice lol. Oh, and almost all of my cards are in Japanese and I have little idea what most do

I hope your mentally prepared for the mirror match, because every fnm ive been around here like 30% of them are playing esper dragons.

[Weltall]

I'm smarter than most Magic players and been playing control since Revised released. What I'm afraid of is god damned mono red.

[Viserdes]

Funny you say that because that is the deck i'm playing in this meta, i almost won a box of mm2015 at a large standard event with mono red recently, but sometimes you just get unlucky. (took 3rd)

[Krandor]

I've played basically nothing but aggro or variations on white weenie since Revised. Most involved I've gotten was Birthing Pod at the tail end of Scars/Innistrad standard.

[zoobernut]

Crucible of Worlds, Damnation, vengevine, grove of the burnwillows, and Dryad arbor missing makes me sad. Other than that the set looks pretty much as expected and will be fun to play. The GP will be a great opportunity to open product but have fun doing it. Why are people surprised that the EV of straight opening packs isn't as good as buying singles? It is always that way.

[Krandor]

Whenever I'm playing (like currently) I'll usually buy a box when a set comes out just because it's an entertaining if expensive experience.

After that it's only buying singles or trading

[AlexRuzhyo]

Crucible of Worlds, Damnation, vengevine, grove of the burnwillows, and Dryad arbor missing makes me sad. Other than that the set looks pretty much as expected and will be fun to play. The GP will be a great opportunity to open product but have fun doing it. Why are people surprised that the EV of straight opening packs isn't as good as buying singles? It is always that way.

The higher MSRP for less value than the original MMA is what's putting people off, not to mention that MM2 is more top-heavy than original set as well.

[zoobernut]

The higher MSRP for less value than the original MMA is what's putting people off, not to mention that MM2 is more top-heavy than original set as well.

I am pretty sure the fact that the first MMA sold for WAY over msrp was what put people off that and how scarce it was. If this new set sells for msrp as the math has shown it follows the same convention with regards to value as every other set out there.

[AlexRuzhyo]

I am pretty sure the fact that the first MMA sold for WAY over msrp was what put people off that and how scarce it was. If this new set sells for msrp as the math has shown it follows the same convention with regards to value as every other set out there.

I'm personally upset that there aren't as many "money" or powerful cards at/below rare, while supply and MSRP were both increased; This isn't even considering what they've overlooked for reprinting.

Wasn't there for MMA so I can't comment on that, but my LGS, if they do nothing else right/ethical, always sells for MSRP.

[zoobernut]

Well that is wonderfully lucky for you and very sweet of your LGS but the first MMA had very limited supply and you were lucky to get booster boxes for $200 most of them were selling for $300+ right out the door which is well above the msrp. That is why people were put off by the first MMA. I think this MMA will be a really fun set for sealed and draft and while you are doing those things you might have a chance at getting some awesome cards you want/need. Which is pretty much what the first set was too. And as Wizards stated pretty much the purpose of these sets. They said in an interview very clearly they did not want to tank the resell value of the cards by releasing these sets.

[Xerlic]

Lowered my preorder from 4 boxes to 1 box. Set looks fun to draft, but it's very top heavy with value like a normal set.

[Xerlic]

Did a MM2015 draft tonight. Thought I did alright opening Kiki Jiki and Cryptic Command in 2 of my 3 packs. The guy sitting next to me cracked Foil Elesh Norn, Iona and Goyf tho...

[Kononeko]

I'll be doing a lot of MM2015 events this weekend. Draft tomorrow, Draft on Saturday Sealed on Sunday. Then GP Vegas.

[Moridam]

i am splitting one box with a friend and no more and i even feel bad about that. i am thoroughly convinced that i'll wind up pulling nothing but bulk and wishing i'd spent the money on a force of will instead