Iran election rivals both declare victory (possible coup d'etat in Iran)

[oldoldman]

This is really some crazy shit.

[Kuya]

So the current popular narrative seems to be that of brave young protestors fighting the evil Iranian regime that supports terrorists and is backed by the Russians.

In lieu of that, let's take a look at what else is going on. Though i highly doubt that Musavi is some sort of neo liberal king pin, it is interesting to note that his major backer is Rafsanjani, who is neo liberal and pro West. The problem with Musavi's image is how quickly it changed, seeing as how he was a hardliner and now suddenly he's a reformist. Let's take a closer look at this:

First, the ABC of the election. Who is Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ahmedinejad's main opponent in the election? He is an enigma wrapped in mystery. He impressed the Iranian youth and the urban middle class as a reformer and a modernist. Yet, as Iran's prime minister during 1981-89, Mousavi was an unvarnished hardliner. Evidently, what we have seen during his high-tech campaign is a vastly different Mousavi, as if he meticulously deconstructed and then reassembled himself.

This was what Mousavi had to say in a 1981 interview about the 444-day hostage crisis when young Iranian revolutionaries kept American diplomats in custody: "It was the beginning of the second stage of our revolution. It was after this that we discovered our true Islamic identity. After this we felt the sense that we could look Western policy in the eye and analyze it the way they had been evaluating us for many years."

Most likely, he had a hand in the creation of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Ali Akbar Mohtashami, Hezbollah's patron saint, served as his interior minister. He was involved in the Iran-Contra deal in 1985, which was a trade-off with the Ronald Reagan administration whereby the US would supply arms to Iran and as quid pro quo Tehran would facilitate the release of the Hezbollah-held American hostages in Beirut. The irony is, Mousavi was the very anti-thesis of Rafsanjani and one of the first things the latter did in 1989 after taking over as president was to show Mousavi the door. Rafsanjani had no time for Mousavi's anti-"Westernism" or his visceral dislike of the market.

Now, let's take a closer look at this Rafsanjani and perhaps a factor into why the universities seem so involved:

Mousavi's electoral platform has been a curious mix of contradictory political lines and vested interests but united in one maniacal mission, namely, to seize the presidential levers of power in Iran. It brought together so-called reformists who support former president Mohammad Khatami and ultra-conservatives of the regime. Rafsanjani is the only politician in Iran who could have brought together such dissimilar factions. He assiduously worked hand-in-glove with Khatami towards this end.

For those who do not know Iran better, suffice to say that the Rafsanjani family clan owns vast financial empires in Iran, including foreign trade, vast landholdings and the largest network of private universities in Iran. Known as Azad there are 300 branches spread over the country, they are not only money-spinners but could also press into Mousavi's election campaign an active cadre of student activists numbering some 3 million.

The Azad campuses and auditoria provided the rallying point for Mousavi's campaign in the provinces. The attempt was to see that the campaign reached the rural poor in their multitudes who formed the bulk of voters and constituted Ahmadinejad's political base. Rafsanjani's political style is to build up extensive networking in virtually all the top echelons of the power structure, especially bodies such as the Guardian Council, Expediency Council, the Qom clergy, Majlis, judiciary, bureaucracy, Tehran bazaar and even elements within the circles close to Khamenei. He called into play these pockets of influence.

One factor that has previously been mentioned in this thread, is how this entire event seems to be diminishing Khamenei's legitimacy. What is Rafsanjani's relationship with Khamenei, and would he have a reason to attack Khamenei?

Rafsanjani was among Imam Khomeini's trusted appointees to the first Revolutionary Council, whereas Khamenei joined only at a later stage when the council expanded its membership. Thus, Rafsanjani always harbored a grouse that Khamenei pipped him to the post of Supreme Leader. The clerical establishment close to Rafsanjani spread the word that Khamenei lacked the requisite religious credentials, that he was indecisive as the executive president, and that the election process was questionable, which cast doubt on the legality of his appointment.

Powerful clerics, egged on by Rafsanjani, argued that the Supreme Leader was supposed to be not only a religious authority (mujtahid), but was also expected to be a source of emulation (marja or a mujtahid with religious followers) and that Khamenei didn't fulfill this requirement - unlike Rafsanjani himself. The debunking of Khamenei rested on the specious argument that his religious education was in question. The sniping by the clerics associated with Rafsanjani continued into the early 1990s. Thus, Khamenei began on a somewhat diffident note and during much of the period when Rafsanjani held power as president (1989-1997), he acted low key, aware of his circumstances.


Ahmadinejad said, "Today it is not Mr Mousavi alone who is confronting me, since there are the three successive governments of Mr Mousavi, Mr Khatami and Mr Hashemi [Rafsanjani] arrayed against me." He took a pointed swipe at Rafsanjani for masterminding a plot to overthrow him. He said Rafsanjani promised the fall of his government to Saudi Arabia. Rafsanjani hit back within days by addressing a communication to Khamenei demanding that Ahmadinejad should retract "so that there would be no need of legal action".

"I am expecting you to resolve the situation in order to extinguish the fire, whose smoke can be seen in the atmosphere, and to take action to foil dangerous plots. Even if I were to tolerate this situation, there is no doubt that some people, parties and factions will not tolerate this situation," Rafsanjani angrily warned Khamenei.

Let's take a look at one of the biggest issues in Iran and behind this election. Does Musavi back Rafsanjani's goals? Would Rafsanjani's monetary support of Musavi, make him suddenly adopt a more neo liberal outlook on the economy? One which he did not have before?

A big issue in Iran -- virtually never discussed in the U.S. media -- is how to interpret Article 44 of the country's constitution. That article states that the economy must consist of three sectors: state-owned, cooperative and private, and that "all large-scale and mother industries" are to be entirely owned by the state. This includes the oil and gas industries, which provide the government with the majority of its revenue. This is what enables the government, in partnership with the large charity foundations, to fund the vast social safety net that allows the country's poor to live much better lives than they did under the U.S.-installed Shah.

In 2004, Article 44 was amended to allow for some privatization. Just how much, and how swiftly that process should proceed, is a fundamental dividing line in Iranian politics. Mousavi has promised to speed up the privatization process. And when he first announced he would run for the presidency, he called for moving away from an “alms-based “ economy (PressTV, 4/13/09), an obvious reference to Ahmadinejad's policies of providing services and benefits to the poor.

Does anyone think that the US or organizations from the US are not involved considering the history of the US and the recently revealed fact that money was being used to support spying and "regime destabalizing tactics" in Iran?

Is it possible that the U.S. government, its military and its 16 intelligence agencies are piously standing on the sidelines of this developing conflict, respecting Iran's right to work out its internal differences on its own? Could we expect that approach from the same government that still maintains its own 30-year sanctions against Iran, is responsible for three sets of U.N.-imposed sanctions, annually spends $70-90 million to fund “dissident” organizations within Iran and, according to the respected investigative reporter Seymour Hersh, actually has U.S. military personnel on the ground within Iran, supporting terrorist organizations like the Jundallah and trying to foment armed rebellions against the government?


I think what is important to realize is that Washington wasn't just hoping for a “reform” candidate to win the election – it's been hoping for an anti-government movement that looks to the West for its political and economic inspiration. Mousavi backer and former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is a free-market advocate and businessman whom Forbes magazine includes in its list of the world's richest people. Does Rafsanjani identify with or seek to speak for the poor? Does Mousavi?

It is justifiable to argue that the Iranian regime needs to stop its harsh crackdown on protesters, however, we should not let the winds of "ROH ROH FIGHT THE POWA" blind us to the fact that political games are being played int he background. In fact, this is always true, for almost anything in politics. These things aren't about good guys fighting the bad guys, there are always interests battleling behind the scenes and vying for public support.

[Vuitton]

So the current popular narrative seems to be that of brave young protestors fighting the evil Iranian regime that supports terrorists and is backed by the Russians.

In lieu of that, let's take a look at what else is going on. Though i highly doubt that Musavi is some sort of neo liberal king pin, it is interesting to note that his major backer is Rafsanjani, who is neo liberal and pro West. The problem with Musavi's image is how quickly it changed, seeing as how he was a hardliner and now suddenly he's a reformist. Let's take a closer look at this:





Now, let's take a closer look at this Rafsanjani and perhaps a factor into why the universities seem so involved:







One factor that has previously been mentioned in this thread, is how this entire event seems to be diminishing Khamenei's legitimacy. What is Rafsanjani's relationship with Khamenei, and would he have a reason to attack Khamenei?




Let's take a look at one of the biggest issues in Iran and behind this election. Does Musavi back Rafsanjani's goals? Would Rafsanjani's monetary support of Musavi, make him suddenly adopt a more neo liberal outlook on the economy? One which he did not have before?





Does anyone think that the US or organizations from the US are not involved considering the history of the US and the recently revealed fact that money was being used to support spying and "regime destabalizing tactics" in Iran?




It is justifiable to argue that the Iranian regime needs to stop its harsh crackdown on protesters, however, we should not let the winds of "ROH ROH FIGHT THE POWA" blind us to the fact that political games are being played int he background. In fact, this is always true, for almost anything in politics. These things aren't about good guys fighting the bad guys, there are always interests battleling behind the scenes and vying for public support.

Thanks for all that information! I was wondering how the U.S. might be tied to this, as I assumed they would have a hand somewhere along the line, as they tend to do.

[Dimmauk]

Jon Stewart mentioned this yesterday and I thought it was pretty brave of them

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Members of Iran's national soccer team wore green arm and wrist bands Wednesday during their World Cup qualifying match against South Korea.
Members of Iran's National Soccer Team sport green bands in their game against South Korea on Wednesday.

Members of Iran's National Soccer Team sport green bands in their game against South Korea on Wednesday.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/WO...er1.afp.gi.jpg

The team does not normally wear green bands.

Many Iranians are viewing the team's bands as a sign of support for Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Moussavi, although that has not been confirmed.

Green is the campaign color of Moussavi and has been widely worn by his supporters who have staged massive rallies in Tehran before and after last week's presidential election.

Moussavi is disputing the results of the vote that gave President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term and is calling for a new election.

The players took the wrist bands off when the team came out for the second half of the game that was taking place in Seoul, South Korea.

It is unclear whether the players were asked to remove the wrist bands.

During and before the match, dozens of Iranian supporters staged a protest to condemn the election results.

They unfurled a banner that read, “Go To Hell Dictator,” and chanted, “Compatriots, we will be with you to the end with the same heart,” at the protest outside the stadium.

During the match, protesters displayed the banner, held up green paper signs reading “Where is my vote?” and waved Iran’s national flags with “Free Iran” on them.


That is brave of them, cause anyone caught protesting could be put to death.

[Akucaen]

Could I get a condensed or tl;dr version? I was watching a CNN interview with a 'leader' from little tehran talking about how awful all this is for American Iranians.

Basically two groups are vying for government control "legally" despite the fact both can't win, and shit hit the fan?

[The Blackrose]

Could I get a condensed or tl;dr version? I was watching a CNN interview with a 'leader' from little tehran talking about how awful all this is for American Iranians.

Basically two groups are vying for government control "legally" despite the fact both can't win, and shit hit the fan?

There's been accusations of voter fraud which resulted in the re-election of Ahmenijhad. There has been word coming out from a number of their version of districts where voter turnout exceeded 100% or were incredibly unrealistic.

CNN has been a big mess of fail on this one, as have the majority of the MSM networks. You're better off watching BBC for any related information.

https://sites.google.com/site/tatsumairanupdate/ has a narration of the protests based off a lot of the news coming out.

[Dimmauk]

Iran's top leader warns of protest crackdown
AP


By ALI AKBAR DAREINI and NASSER KARIMI, Associated Press Writers Ali Akbar Dareini And Nasser Karimi, Associated Press Writers – 14 mins ago

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran's supreme leader sternly warned of a crackdown if protesters continue days of massive street rallies, escalating the government's showdown with demonstrators demanding a new presidential election.

In his first response to a week of protests of the disputed election, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said opposition leaders "will be held accountable for all the violence, bloodshed and rioting" if they do not halt the rallies.

Khamenei also said the balloting had not been rigged, and he sided with hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, offering no concessions to the opposition. He effectively ruled out any chance for a new vote, lauding the June 12 election as an expression of the people's will.

"Some of our enemies in different parts of the world intended to depict this absolute victory, this definitive victory, as a doubtful victory," Khamenei said at Friday prayers at Tehran University. "It is your victory. They cannot manipulate it."

The speech created a stark choice for candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and his supporters: Drop their demands for a new vote or take to the streets again in blatant defiance of the man endowed with virtually limitless powers under Iran's constitution.

Pro-Mousavi Web sites had no immediate reaction to Khamenei's warning. They did not announce changes in plans for a march at 4 p.m. Saturday from Revolution Square to Freedom Square, site of a massive rally Monday that ended with fatal clashes between protesters and a pro-government militia.

"We are all feel a little angry, worried and disappointed after the speech," said one Mousavi supporter, responding by e-mail to The Associated Press.

"We are waiting for Mousavi's reaction. He is our hope to protect our votes," added the Tehran resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of government retaliation.

Monday's demonstration was followed by three consecutive days of protest that have posed the greatest challenge to Iran's Islamic ruling system since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought it to power.

So far, the government has not stopped the protests with force despite an official ban on them. But Khamenei opened the door for harsher measures.

"It must be determined at the ballot box what the people want and what they don't want, not in the streets," he said. "I call on all to put an end to this method."

And Khamenei added, according Press TV, Iranian state television's English-language channel: "Extremism in the country, any extremist move, will fan another extremist move. If the political elite want to ignore the law or break the law then they are taking wrong measures, which are harmful, and they will be held accountable for all the violence, bloodshed and rioting."

He accused foreign media and Western countries of trying to create a political rift and stir up chaos in Iran. Iranian leaders often blame foreign "enemies" for plots against the country, but Khamenei's comments suggest Iran could remain cool to expanding dialogue with the West and the offer of opening talks with Washington.

President Barack Obama has taken a cautious line on the election dispute, expressing sympathy with protesters but avoiding condemnation of the Islamic government.

He said Tuesday that opposition to Ahmadinejad represented "a questioning of the kinds of antagonistic postures towards the international community that have taken place in the past, and that there are people who want to see greater openness and greater debate and want to see greater democracy."

Khamenei reacted strongly, saying Obama's statements contradicted the president's stated goal of opening dialogue with Iran and the conciliatory tone of other recent American messages.

"The U.S. president said 'We were waiting for a day like this to see people on the street,'" Khamenei said. "They write to us and say they respect the Islamic Republic and then they make comments like this. ... Which one should we believe?

Khamenei remained staunch in his defense of Ahmadinejad, saying his views were closer to the president's than to those of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful patron of Mousavi.

Ahmadinejad watched the sermon from the front row and conservative candidate Mohsen Rezaei could be seen in the audience.

State television did not show Mousavi in the crowd of thousands, which spilled out of the open-sided campus pavilion and filled surrounding streets.

Iran's Arabic-language state TV channel had said before the prayer service that Mousavi, Rezaei and reformist candidate Mahdi Karroubi would attend. Karroubi confirmed that but it was not clear from broadcasts of the sermon if he or Rafsanjani were in fact there.

Khamenei said the 11 million votes that separated Ahmadinejad from his top opponent, Mousavi, were proof that fraud did not occur.

"If the difference was 100,000 or 500,000 or 1 million, well, one may say fraud could have happened. But how can one rig 11 million votes?" Khamenei asked.

Khamenei said Iran would not see a second revolution like those that transformed the countries of the former Soviet Union and pointed a finger at the U.S., Britain and what he called Iran's other enemies.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and other European Union leaders expressed dismay over the threat of a crackdown. The British Foreign Office said it had summoned Iran's ambassador to London to explain Khamenei's comments.

Khamenei's address was his first since hundreds of thousands of Mousavi supporters flooded the streets, evoking the revolution that ended Iran's U.S.-backed monarchy. On Thursday, supporters dressed in black and green marched in downtown Tehran in a somber, candlelit show of mourning for those killed in clashes since the election.

Khamenei said the street protests would not have any impact.

"Some may imagine that street action will create political leverage against the system and force the authorities to give in to threats. No, this is wrong," he said.

The supreme leader left open a small window for a legal challenge to the vote. He reiterated that he has ordered the Guardian Council, an unelected body of 12 clerics and Islamic law experts close to the supreme leader, to investigate voter fraud claims.

The council has said it was prepared to conduct a limited recount of ballots at sites where candidates claim irregularities.

Ahmadinejad has appeared to take the growing opposition more seriously in recent days, backtracking Thursday on his dismissal of the protesters as "dust" and sore losers.

The crowds in Tehran and elsewhere have been able to organize despite a government clampdown on the Internet and cell phones. The government has blocked certain Web sites, such as BBC Farsi, Facebook, Twitter and several pro-Mousavi sites that are vital conduits for Iranians to tell the world about protests and violence.

Text messaging, a primary source of spreading information in Tehran, has not been working since last week, and cell phone service in Tehran is frequently down. The government also has barred foreign news organizations from reporting on Tehran's streets.

The BBC said it was employing two new satellites to help circumvent Iranian jamming of its Persian-language service.

Google said it was launching a Persian-to-English translation service and Facebook said Iranian users could now use a Persian version of its site as a way of easing communication to the outside world.

[Olo401]

Anyone know how to say si se puede in Farsi?

[Dezzimal]

http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/4171/...a2223a002a.jpg

[Kuya]

Well then.

[guartz]

What is this, I don't even...

[Darus Grey]

Apparrently after yesterday's speech by Khemenei condemning the protesters, today has turned incredibly violent with the protesters and the regime actively fighting each other.

The "spark" was a bomb going off at the Khemenei Shrine, which according to several different feeds went off *after* the Iranian state media already reported it...they can't get anything right can they?

[fren.]

The "spark" was a bomb going off at the Khemenei Shrine, which according to several different feeds went off *after* the Iranian state media already reported it...they can't get anything right can they?

via twitter:
According to people on the ground, Iranian State TV Reported on the blast, BEFORE it actually went off.

..and this is a video that's floating around of a lady (dead?) with blood coming out of her eyes. Brutal stuff.

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[Vajra]

According to Musavi's Facebook, the Millitary is apparently throwing "boiling water" and or "acid" on the people from the helicopters flying over the protesters heads. They are saying this because "the clear liquid is burning the people's skin, when it makes contact," source: CNN. HOLY MOLY!

[6souls]

..and this is a video that's floating around of a lady (dead?) with blood coming out of her eyes. Brutal stuff.

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http://video.ak.facebook.com/video-a...7692_53196.mp4

d/l link if you can't view facebook.

Footage from today's protest that sparked injuries like the victim above;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wwDS9RliLc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wwDS9RliLc

Change_for_Iran - we didn't realize for a moment they started shooting at people, the gun's sound was like a toy gun, not loud & the soliders were smiling
Change_for_Iran - I was going to tell masood they are using fake guns for scaring people! until people started screaming in agony

http://twitter.com/Change_for_Iran

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHq1iolS0QU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHq1iolS0QU

[Aerin]

"The U.S. president said 'We were waiting for a day like this to see people on the street,'" Khamenei said. "They write to us and say they respect the Islamic Republic and then they make comments like this. ... Which one should we believe?

Pretty sure the first part is taken out of context and the president meant we have been waiting to see people in the street voting.

[fren.]

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Video shows fierce Iran clashes

I had a shiteating grin after watching this.

[Pikarya]

Quick question, since I know jackshit about Iran's policies/laws.

Are citizens allowed to bare arms?

[isladar]

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Video shows fierce Iran clashes

I had a shiteating grin after watching this.

That is incredible, holy shit.

[archibaldcrane]

Quick question, since I know jackshit about Iran's policies/laws.

Are citizens allowed to bare arms?

I don't think the women are, but the men can do the bare arms thing, well as bare as you would consider a hairy Iranian man's arm anyway.