Can we bomb them yet?

[Beckwin]

I've already expressed what to do in other topics- continue applying whatever diplomatic pressure, shore up missile defenses in the area (because a nuke would be the biggest threat, not to mention missiles with chemical weapons) and work with the Chinese to apply further pressures. The way to win is to avoid conflict completely, and frankly I do believe that it's doable. NK talks tough but in reality they do not want a war- it means their destruction, regardless of how many casualties they can inflict on the way out. However, they almost certainly would respond with total war to any ("pre-emptive") attack on them, because at that point they're fucked either way.

[Beckwin]

and again, I'm waiting for an article.

[Plow]

I've already expressed what to do in other topics- continue applying whatever diplomatic pressure, shore up missile defenses in the area (because a nuke would be the biggest threat, not to mention missiles with chemical weapons) and work with the Chinese to apply further pressures. The way to win is to avoid conflict completely, and frankly I do believe that it's doable. NK talks tough but in reality they do not want a war- it means their destruction, regardless of how many casualties they can inflict on the way out. However, they almost certainly would respond with total war to any ("pre-emptive") attack on them, because at that point they're fucked either way.

The problem I see, is that I think he's crazy enough not to believe that.

If he can essentially tell the world that he's exporting weaponry and anything we try to do about it will start a war, what's to make him think if he manages to kill enough people in Seoul, it wouldn't be "scary" enough to deter any kind of assault?

It's like operating under the assumption that a guy that's holding someone hostage is going to be happy just holding that 1 person. How many naked pictures of Bea Arthur do we have to send in before he decides he wants something truly fapworthy, and is going to kill the first hostage and grab another to make his point? Or even just start cutting off limbs...

What are we going to do when there is no more SK, and Japan is the one being held hostage?

and again, I'm waiting for an article.

An article on what? I already showed you that *your* link mathematically supports even the most exaggerated statement I've ever made on the subject.


I mean... you don't honestly think I'm the only person in the world making this point do you?


This guy said 6 years ago we needed to attack because they're working on nukes deliverable easily to SK and Japan, and recommended a preemptive strike then:


Attack North Korea Before It's Too Late, Key Defector Warns

Scary how simply that little article describes the next 6 years perfectly.


I mean, fuck, NK is now saying the U.S. has set up a thousand nukes in SK and therefore it has to step up its program even more, because as far as they're concerned, nuclear war is about to break out.

North Korea warns of nuclear war - The Daily Record



I mean, it's really, literally, as if your choice is to say "Nope, I don't care how obvious they make it that they're about to do it, we're not touching them until millions and millions die, because if we do, thousands might die."

[Beckwin]

Your second article: NK has always made boisterous threats involving paranoia of outside plotting/military overthrow. I can see why you're more spooked now with the nuclear possibility, but as even you yourself said, they can engulf Seoul in fire and hit major targets in the rest of the country.... so why haven't they done so yet? Right, because they really have no intention of doing so. They know it would be the end of their nation.

Your first article: Newsmax (lol) and it's safe to say that while the defector certainly has some knowledge of NK and their military, he's also not a military expert nor is he void of bias (say toward, oh I dunno, getting rid of this guy that he really, and understandably, hates).

You're mischaracterizing my choice by quite a bit; we have a better odds of downing a nuclear-laden missile than the artillery barrage, and we also have much better chances of avoiding any attacks entirely, rather than flat out welcoming them by taking "pre-emptive" action.

[Plow]

Your second article: NK has always made boisterous threats involving paranoia of outside plotting/military overthrow. I can see why you're more spooked now with the nuclear possibility, but as even you yourself said, they can engulf Seoul in fire and hit major targets in the rest of the country.... so why haven't they done so yet? Right, because they really have no intention of doing so. They know it would be the end of their nation.

Like I said, I just think he's gotten crazy enough to not believe it is.

The problem is, all his "empty" threats and meaningless vociferousness is materializing.

It's no longer an empty threat that if we stop them from exporting weaponry, there is nuclear capability prepared to respond.

Your first article: Newsmax (lol) and it's safe to say that while the defector certainly has some knowledge of NK and their military, he's also not a military expert nor is he void of bias (say toward, oh I dunno, getting rid of this guy that he really, and understandably, hates).

That's all well and good, doesn't change the fact that he predicted then that we'd be where we are now.

You're mischaracterizing my choice by quite a bit; we have a better odds of downing a nuclear-laden missile than the artillery barrage, and we also have much better chances of avoiding any attacks entirely, rather than flat out welcoming them by taking "pre-emptive" action.

The capability to down an actual weapon is hard to say. It depends immensely on what it's targeted at, for one thing. Japan's defenses are pretty intense, but not entirely flawless. We're not exactly entirely public about what we have for SK along those lines, partly because it's more than likely better than what we have for ourselves.

But, I agree that it's somewhat beside the point. I'm not as worried that he'll get pissed off and nuke someone as that he'll either sell nukes, get pissed off and just go nuts on SK in general, or both.


I still just don't agree that we're going to avoid attacks with our current course of action.


I mean... you're there, you'll see first hand. I feel bad that you, or anyone is there, and I would sure hate to be there, on the day we actively stop a ship they were depending on for hundreds of millions of dollars for the weaponry loaded upon it, or the day China says no more.

[Beckwin]

On the topic of me being here, I'll just point out that no one here even bothers to shrug their shoulders at the recent developments; it's basically only the other foreigners in the office/at the bars who even bother talking about it. While hardly a concrete evidence, it does give some weight to the idea that NK has been saber rattling for years and years with nothing happening, because it's obvious they don't really want anything to happen (unless the US implodes and China steps up as a sole superpower and broadens it's imperial ambitions at which point NK could feasibly reunite the peninsula on it's terms..... which isn't anywhere close to happening, lol).

[Sady]

It seems to me that NK has nothing to gain and everything to lose... That makes it highly unlikely that they would take the first shot.

An attempt at a pre-emptive strike is most likely what they expect, and perhaps what they want! You can bet that while we're here formulating/planning our attack, they to are strategizing their defense and counter-attack. I don't think that forcing their hand is smart, especially now that they have a trump card in nuclear weapons.

Maybe its the years of anti-NK/communist propaganda talking, but I'm convinced that they are crazy enough to use the bomb as a weapon, if sufficiently provoked, on their South Korean neighbours. I sincerely hope it never comes to this.

Like others have stated, the ball is really in China's court. I just hope they're on our side...

[Plow]

It seems to me that NK has nothing to gain and everything to lose...

I'm pretty sure they'd really like to have a bit of food left over after their military finishes gorging themselves.

[Baha]

The Gulf War was nearly 20 years ago. Technology has evolved tremendously since then, and the US has received primary benefit of that evolution. This conflict would need to be conducted much more swiftly and violently. There would be more civilian casualties, but the conflict would end with a lot less non-NK casualties. To add to that, the opposing belligerent in the Gulf War was Iraq, a force with very little potential for destruction on the massive scale. NK has the potential to flat out destroy half of SK if the campaign was done incorrectly, so if the US were to attack, our only choice would be to essentially decimate their entire military force in one fell swoop.

Technological advances? There's been a lot of those, but not everything has changed. The bombing force that's suitable for precision strikes haven't changed significantly, and stealths especially have not grown considerably in number. More and better cruise missiles, a lot of options for UAV's and probably more yes. But it's not so far into Star Wars territory that all of NK's threatening capabilities could be destroyed in 'minutes' as was so boldly claimed here. In a day? Maybe, if you're optimistic.

Initial strikes in the second gulf war went a lot faster partly thanks to technology, but mostly because Iraq's once strong army had been shot to hell in the first war.

Estimates on NK's capabilities are largely estimates, most of the numbers will likely come from production data and imported materials. I have no doubt that the majority of the artillery and missiles are in locations known by us, but it's not terribly hard to hide artillery pieces. And even a few shells from 'leftover' pieces will do massive damage. Artillery =/= inaccurate, range-extended scuds.

I don't think it's as easy as it's made to sound here, even though I wish it was. You'll need a massive force buildup (artillery, planes, ships, carriers, men etc), preferably from an international coalition. If all that buildup doesn't alert NK and drive them into a first strike, which seems likely, Seoul will still be hurt badly. Designating provisional shelters for Seoul would probably be necessary, and ignoring the logistics of it, good luck getting a huge city to just.. stop for a few days.

[Meian]

Kim Jong-Il is nothing even close to Hitler. Not by a mile. This is only similar to Germany in the 30s regarding the failure of appeasement.

Wasn't comparing what Hitler did. Just how something goes by.

[archibaldcrane]

Again, 13,000 artillery pieces.

13,000. And I'm sure that a bunch of them couldn't be spotted until they started firing...

That's not a few hours or a day's work. It's just not.

[Plow]

Technological advances? There's been a lot of those, but not everything has changed. The bombing force that's suitable for precision strikes haven't changed significantly, and stealths especially have not grown considerably in number.

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F-22 Raptor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


as far as not knowing where shit is...


you guys realize *google* can let you see your house well enough to tell if you were putting a cannon half the size needed to effectively target SK from NK right?

[Baha]

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F-22 Raptor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yes, and the F117 was retired to be able to get more F22's. Numbers haven't changed drastically. More than enough stealths to knock out communications, infrastructures and the big radar sites, not enough to go hunt down every piece of artillery. Enough normal jets in a full coalition? Probably, but theyll have to go behind the initial strikes (by minutes)

you guys realize *google* can let you see your house well enough to tell if you were putting a cannon half the size needed to effectively target SK from NK right?

Because we're trying to hide our houses right? Camouflage, bunkers, bury that shit in a hill, etc. Most of them? Yes. All of them? I wouldn't bet on it.

[Plow]

We can get the radar/communications and vast majority of the modern equipment with EMP's, giving them a matter of 1-2 minutes with no communication or coordination to pull out a counterattack with whatever we miss of the old stuff.


Also I don't think you fully grasp the capabilities of the f22.

[Beckwin]

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | UN toughens North Korea sanctions

china has co-signed tighter UN restrictions/sanctions on North Korea

[noblemountain]

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | UN toughens North Korea sanctions

china has co-signed tighter UN restrictions/sanctions on North Korea

Glad to see China finally step up more. I was honestly worried after I saw that KJI's heir was in China "negotiating" over the weekend. This is all going to play out exactly however China wants.

[Skjie]

This is all going to play out exactly however China wants.

Really, this entire situation has always been up to the Chinese. With waning of American interests abroad, China is finally stepping up.

[Beckwin]

More interesting developments:

The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Daily News from Korea - N.Korean Heir Apparent Linked to Assassination Plot

Kim's heir tried to have his older brother killed, who has very good relations with Chinese officials. In response to the assassination attempt and the missle/nuke fiascoes, China has scrapped some planned cooperative developments/celebrations with North Korea.

China so far is moving in the right direction- not consenting to NK's bullshit.

[noblemountain]

More interesting developments:

The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Daily News from Korea - N.Korean Heir Apparent Linked to Assassination Plot

Kim's heir tried to have his older brother killed, who has very good relations with Chinese officials. In response to the assassination attempt and the missle/nuke fiascoes, China has scrapped some planned cooperative developments/celebrations with North Korea.

China so far is moving in the right direction- not consenting to NK's bullshit.

I was wondering if his kid was batshit crazy, like his old man...I guess this answers that.

[Cephius]

Do people think that soldiers on the ground would follow through with an all-out attack order on the south? Aren't there a lot of families (and thus soldiers) who have been split up and have family on both sides? I question wether the soldiers on the ground or the people with their fingers on the launch button would actually go through with an order to commit mass homicide on their former countrymen and potentially their family members.

My only knowledge comes from the elective course I took in college about Korean modern history, so I don't claim to know enough about them, but it seems that may be an issue.