I don't pretend they're obvious, simply conclusions from the models I've built in my head regarding the event, have you never done this?
It annoys me how you pretend that everyone has exactly the same cognitive capacities, and the idea of someone doing something which they are innately good at, but you aren't, is impossible. The idea that physics makes sense, and that I can see the implications of certain combinations of conditions and materials well enough to model various phenomena accurately is not that far fetched.
What the fuck do you think Einstein was doing when he pondered how a clock would appear as he receded from it at light speed? Do you think the ability to think logically about the results of physical processes according to known laws using a thought experiment is rare?
How else do you want to explain that I said they would find results like this, I didn't go into enough rigor to state with certainty that they would find exactly 335 kilotons of water, but I could tell that it would be a large enough amount to make calling the moon dry absurd.
A 1 meter covering of water on the entire surface of the moon isn't a vast amount, but it's significant, and deep (Earth) mantle rock should have a similar water content, quite a bit less than surface magma, but I didn't say crust rock. Nor did I say it was the reason why all of the ice was in the crater shadows.
I said "they should expect to find a significant amount of water in moon rocks.