Breaks & Losses

[tymora]

Since no one really bothered to post anything on this topic...
I will like to throw out some numbers to see if we can get anywhere from there.

After a 11 level break-synthing run and about 5M down the drain, I have the following:

Conditions - Overwhelming Fire Synthesis Moghancement (Thought I had Artisan's Advantage until SE pointed out we need Support to get the benefit...)
~40% item loss rate from 349 breaks (which is 100% break essentially)

Conditions - Overwhelming Fire Synthesis Moghancement + Artisan's Advantage
~35% item loss rate from 23 breaks (Very small sample size)

Using desynth as a base on an assumption that break and loss are independent of either synth/desynth, my previous records show ~50% break rate without any mediation.

So hypothesis -> Moghancement = -10% loss rate, AA = -5% loss rate

Data Collection Method:
- Every break should be followed by a count of how many materials and which ones are lost.
Chance of loss = Number of Item Lost/Number of Breaks

- Rare material synthesis is likely to follow different loss %.
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Anyone kept their break and loss results?

[Pirian]

Sample size isn't large enough to come to any conclusive results, but nice idea. I'm personally doing a real test on the HQ rate of t0 and am about halfway done with 5014 of the same synth. From how it's going now I'm thinking it's around 1/64, as I seem to bounce around 1.45-1.75

I may experiment with the next 5k synths and take away moglithifcation for 2.5k of it and see how that compares to the next 2.5k in terms of break rate of synth items. I'm hoping that the % difference is large enough apart that the margin of error on each side doesn't intersect with that sample size. From your test a 5% difference should be noticeable with that sample size, but we'll see

[RandomJoe]

I have the logs to be able to compile the HQ/Break/Loss rates of a T0 synth with a population size in the many thousands if there is interest in it. No moglification or crystal aura was used. I used no support for any of the synths so mog tablets should have had no effect.

Let me know if there is interest, i may be able to review it.

[tymora]

I am definitely interested in more data concerning the item loss rate in a break.
Even with 5000 regular synths, suppose you have normal break rates of 5%, you will only get 250 usable results in this case.

Break-synthing on many material recipes works best but I obviously can't do it again I leveled up most of my subs in the process so there are very few recipes I can try out now.

---
I am sure we all want to know how good or bad moghancement (and whether it varies with strength) as well as Artisan's Advantage. It can potentially mediate bad runs.

Desynth is a good method of getting a large sample size in a small number of synths, but it may also follow different rules on loss rate. I am only using it as a comparison base because I do not have any other better data.

[Theraven]

I've kept a record of synths I've done for profit along with breaks and which materials were lost, but none of them have been with Artisan's Advantage or Moghancement. I can post it here if the data will be useful. It's over 3500 synths total but it's across a bunch of different synths and even different crafts.

[tymora]

Please do.

[Theraven]

		hq success:	breaks:

Aura Earring +1:	2/6
Black Cape:		2/6
Blessed Mitts:		0/5
Communion Earring:	1/36
Cursed Handschuhs:	0/1
Cursed Mitts:		0/4
Cursed Schaller:	0/8	2 
Cursed Crown:		1/45	1 (1 gold ingot, 1 copper ingot, 1 hair)
Cursed Cuirass:		0/1
Errant Houppelande:	2/81	8 (6 chain, 5 thread, 3 vclth, 9 sclth, 8 rclth, 6 leather)
Igqira Lappa:		0/25	3 (2 c.leather, 2 whisker, 1 m.leather, 3 shells, 1 skin, 2 tusks)
Igqira Tiara:		1/46	5 (2 c.leather, 3 garnet, 9 coral, 2 hair)
Igqira Weskit:		2/159	40 (16 c.leather, 15 lapis, 19 d.leather, 40 talon, 24 hair, 22 tusk, 15 blood, 16 skin)
Melody Earring:		1/4
Morion Earring +1:	5/75	2 (1 earring)
Nereid Ring:		0/209	11 (11 shells lost)
Noble's Tunic:		1/14
Onyx Earring:		16/36	1 (1 gem, 1 earring)
Orichalcum Scythe:	0/6
Phantom Earring +1:	1/19	1 (1 tathlum, 1 earring)
Pigeon Earring:		0/6
Republic Subligar:	2/10
Sh'air Manteel		0/15	2 (2 cashmere cloth)
Star Earring:		0/3
Triumph Earring:	0/20
74 Gem Rings:		14/297	15 (9 gems, 9 rings)
54 Gem Rings:		67/285	18 (7 gems, 5 rings)
36 Gem Rings:		87/203	19 (9 gems, 4 rings)
14 Gem Rings:		78/167	16 (11 gems, 7 rings)
Vellum:			19/120	5 (3 dust, 2 berry)

Shall Shells:

Pebble:			92	11 breaks (6 shells)
Pearl:			84
Black Pearl:		22

rocks:

Light Opal:		120	3 breaks (2 rocks)
Moonstone:		14
Angelstone:		5
Onyx:			82	2 breaks (1 rock)
Painite:		6
Deathstone:		1
Tourmaline:		64	13 breaks (3 rocks)
Peridot:		39
Jadeite:		12
Emerald:		2
Amethyst:		103	13 breaks (7 rocks)
Ametrine:		76
Flourite:		26
Spinel:			11
Lapis Lazuli:		132	19 breaks (8 rocks)
Turquiose:		114
Aquamarine:		35
Sapphire:		9
Sardonyx:		89	7 breaks (5 rocks)
Garnet:			63
Sunstone:		18
Ruby:			5
Clear Topaz:		78	6 breaks (4 rocks)
Goshenite:		98
Zircon:			21
Diamond:		1

Had to code it so the formatting would stick. To explain my formatting,

74 Gem Rings: 14/297 15 (9 gems, 9 rings)

means 14 hq out of 297 total successful synths with 15 breaks and out of those 15 breaks I lost 9 gems and 9 rings. 297 successes + 15 breaks = 312 total synths. Then on Shall Shells and the rock synths,

Clear Topaz: 78 6 breaks (4 rocks)
Goshenite: 98
Zircon: 21
Diamond: 1

would be 78 nq, 98 hq1, 21 hq2 and 1 hq3 with 6 breaks and from those 6 breaks I lost 4 rocks. 78+98+21+1+6 = 204 total synths.

I didn't start keeping track of synths until long after I was gold 100, and only kept track of synths for profit, otherwise there would be a LOT more rock synths (and synths in general), lol.