If I were to wager a completely baseless guess it's a seperate -% from distance adjustment. Easily tested though.
Confidence interval calculation:
Error @ 95% confidence = 1.96*sqrt(14.1%*(1-14.1%))/sqrt(262), assuming 262 is the total number of shots included crits and misses.
Error = +/- 4.2% => Confidence interval: 9.9% < 14.1% < 18.3%
Indeed that makes 20% out of this C.I., but, from personal experience on sample sizes needed for parsing, 500hits is really a strict minimum to only start to have a "good point".
That result isnot "lost" though: if you still have the parse, you can just continue it, i wouldnot be surprised to see your accuracy raised @ 17% +/- 3.3% after 500hits (which includes 20% in the C.I.).
Btw, i'm interested how did you kept mob @ 10' while shooting at it ? Shadowbind has a too long recast to make such test "bearable", while bind spell well... i don't know honestly...
Asking that to know how i could reproduce for ranged testings.
Worms, silly.
Late, but yes, I can confirm it was worms. I suppose forts would have worked as well, but not sure.
I'm not clear on why you would not be surprised at a result that "grew" to 17%. Regardless of what the next test batch would show, this would have no impact on the prior batch. The independent sample has to stand on it's own as an extreme outlier if we assume the underlying rate is 20%.
Ignoring for the moment the possibility of researcher error, and allowing for the assumption that the hit rate does not follow a normal distribution (being truncated), there is seemingly still no reasonable way to anticipate a sample rate of 14.1% (262 attempts) out of a normal population.
While its certainly highly likely that the rate would be higher if added sampling occurred IF we assume the underlying population is at least 20%, it does not however explain the result of 14.1% unless we are disagreeing with the very nature of confidence intervals.
I don't regard sample size to be an impediment unless you are questioning the same stats which you posted (Error = +/- 4.2% => Confidence interval: 9.9% < 14.1% < 18.3%) which are derived from accepted statistical methodology. (As an example, if we toss a 2-headed coin only 10 times and we get 10 tails, it's clearly not random, despite doing "only" 10 tests.)
The most likely scenario is that either the rate is floored at 20% but distance racc is an added adjustment, or that racc is not floored at 20%.
Having said all that (long version), I'll try to do some more testing and see if that sheds some light. I leave open a wide door to researcher error and I did not realize my results were surprising.
As stated, was vs Kuftal Crabs, though I didn't pick and choose 1 level of mobs. My goal was not to figure out the exact # of melee accuracy added on Kaiten, but rather confirm that Kaiten gets a significant enough accuracy boost that I could ignore said stat on my WS set still (basically, I looked around, found no proof, and wanted proof before I went with the accepted Byrnie+1/etc).
Also, I'm visiting my parents at the moment, so I don't have access to my parse until Sunday night, I can provide more information then. I don't recall if I used Hasso or Seigan, but I am 99% sure I kept it consistent throughout the test.
As for gear, I want to say it was;
Amano-x-x-x
Turban-Orochi-Novia-Musical
Arhats-Dusk-Rajas-Jelly
Boxers-VBelt-Byakkos-Usu
I could be off, but I'm pretty sure that was it.
Again, can try to get you the extra info when I get home, I admittedly didn't look much at it, though I am sure I had 0% DA during the test, and as such had 0 1%TP Kaitens. And yes, the pdif comment was sarcasm.
100 sounds like a good ballpark guess...but ya, I'm not trying to counter it at all, I just posted my data if anyone cared, and the only point I had in the test was to properly gear myself without any assumptions.
I had exactly 1 melee swing (Hit) that wasn't blinded. I blame Kirschy! I generally turned around at ~2min56sec, waited for it to wear off, reapplied, the continued to melee. I missed exactly 1 swing due to typing on aim.
This, but don't recall if I used Hasso. Will check on Sunday.
Code:Failure Buff Type Min/Max Average Cr.Min/Max Cr.Avg Buff (In)Active% + Hasso Melee 29/387 116.65 118/612 230.20 100.00 % - Hasso Melee 0/0 0.00 0/0 0.00 0.00 % + Hasso WSkill 189/784 577.14 100.00 % - Hasso WSkill 0/0 0.00 0.00 %Melee Hits:Code:Player # Melee Attacks # Melee Rounds Attacks/Round # Extra Attacks Failure 516 459 1 57 Player # Missed First Attacks # DA w/Missed First Possible Zanshin % Failure 212 57 26.89 %
Spoiler: show
Melee Crits:
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By Level
C-42
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C-45
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C-47
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C-49
Spoiler: show