Absolute Virtue Information (OP Updated)

[Yinnyth]

I fail to see any logic behind the 'minimal lock' idea. It would make far more sense to lock as many of his 2hrs as he uses them (with the exception of PD and MS or whatever it was suggested if you were planning to war zerg it from 60%). You start off with a 1/16(?) chance of getting hundred fists and if the average time between each 2hr is 45-60 seconds it is so very possible you will go 70 minutes without seeing any given 2hr that you are just shitting up this thread with theories from several years ago.

The idea of the minimal lock is to study AV's behavior in bracelets mode when he has access to several 2hrs. If we find 2 relatively "tame" 2hr combos we can leave for him in bracelets mode, I would infinitely prefer dealing with perfect dodge + blood weapon to a 1 in 5 chance of getting hammered with meteor. There's also a (admittedly small) chance that repeated usage of 2hrs breaks or weakens his bracelets.

Assuming all 2hrs have an equal chance of being used, and assuming he currently has no Wynavs alive, it's a 1 in 12 chance. However, call wyvern is one of his most frequently used 2hrs, and we locked it. This makes it an estimated 1 in 11 chance. Then manafont gets locked and it becomes a 1 in 10 chance. Then benediction gets locked and it becomes a 1 in 9 chance. Assuming the average probability of hundred fists getting used on our fight was 1 in 11, the chances of him using anything except hundred fists is 10/11 or a 90.9% chance. According to an initial scan of the parses, we have at least 37 confirmed 2hrs used by AV. 0.909 ^ 37 = 2.9%.

So statiscally speaking, every 100 battles we have against AV similar to that one, about 3 of them will have a 2hr AV simply doesn't use. Not impossible, but unlikely seeing as how this was our first attempt at a minimal lock on AV. If you don't respect my theory, I can't blame you, it seems far fetched to even me. However, with all crazy theories I believe you must assess the risk vs. the reward. Having one mnk in ally who stays within 20' of AV, who maintains active "lockable" hate on AV, and who keeps a faith torque on always is not nearly as risky as most of the proposed theories. As for the reward, it would be pretty nice if we could prevent AV from using any 2hr we want until we're ready to deal with it (say... save manafont for last, for example).

And VS, I'm both comforted and concerned by your reply on the topic of benediction after regen lock. I'll try to study the videos and parses to see what was going wrong for us after benediction.

Edit: although it's fun to flame me for proposing something you already believed impossible a year ago, don't flood out the actually useful information that scientific testing of theories has proven:

On our yesterday's attempt

1. A RNG defeated JoL and he dropped from his alliance before AV's pop.
AV appeared and killed a SAM, a BRD, a RDM and a BLM in the alliance.
In the end, it hit another BRD and deaggroed.
The BRD and the rest including PLDs in the alliance survived.
I don't know why. Especially the BRD who got one hit.

2. On AV fight, a solo DRG/WHM who cured a tank in the alliance
to be on AV's hate list failed in locking CW.
(From the outside of the alliance, he countered it asap by watching wynav's pop.
Actually his CW use was faster than "Absolute Virtue uses Call Wyvern!" log in our video.
So I'm 100% sure that locking from the outside never works no matter being on the hate list.
He succeeded after joining the alliance.)

3. MBed ES Silence didn't land.
(I, BLM/WHM tried it on SC Light done by Kasha and Trueflight.
At that time, Regen, Manafont, CW, CS and SV were locked, and AV's HP was 100%.)

4. Demon arrow's weakening attacks was landed on AV.

No big info, but might help optimize strategies.

2 and 3 were theories proposed several times on this thread, and I personally find 4 fairly interesting. It's humbling to see them tested by Bartlett, and frustrating to see his work ignored.

[Mojo]

It does not matter what two hours AV has access to when it has bracelets, it will have access to Meteor regardless. So you're not going to lock it out by leaving some of them unlocked, you're just going to burden yourself with an overcomplicated and ineffective strategy. Either way, it's already understood as to how to lock two hours and how that affects the triple two hour combo (in bracelets mode,) so really I'm not sure what you're aiming to do other than waste your own time.

Also, the probability you presented was for just Hundred Fists. If AV had access to 11 different two hours and had 37 total two hour uses, then the chances of it not using one of those 11 is about 35%. So yeah, it's nothing exceptional.

[Hercule]

bad idea.
(Idea was 15 Yovra NM corresponding to 15 AV 2hrs)

[drwaffles]

You cannot be fucking serious, lol.

[Cairthenn]

What the fuck is with these retarded ideas? Really, get the fuck out.

[Hercule]

And why not

[drwaffles]

This may come as a shock to you, but people have known how to lock 2hrs for months. It's even posted and discussed extensively in this very thread.

[Killkenny]

The idea of the minimal lock is to study AV's behavior in bracelets mode when he has access to several 2hrs. If we find 2 relatively "tame" 2hr combos we can leave for him in bracelets mode, I would infinitely prefer dealing with perfect dodge + blood weapon to a 1 in 5 chance of getting hammered with meteor. There's also a (admittedly small) chance that repeated usage of 2hrs breaks or weakens his bracelets.

Assuming all 2hrs have an equal chance of being used, and assuming he currently has no Wynavs alive, it's a 1 in 12 chance. However, call wyvern is one of his most frequently used 2hrs, and we locked it. This makes it an estimated 1 in 11 chance. Then manafont gets locked and it becomes a 1 in 10 chance. Then benediction gets locked and it becomes a 1 in 9 chance. Assuming the average probability of hundred fists getting used on our fight was 1 in 11, the chances of him using anything except hundred fists is 10/11 or a 90.9% chance. According to an initial scan of the parses, we have at least 37 confirmed 2hrs used by AV. 0.909 ^ 37 = 2.9%.

So statiscally speaking, every 100 battles we have against AV similar to that one, about 3 of them will have a 2hr AV simply doesn't use. Not impossible, but unlikely seeing as how this was our first attempt at a minimal lock on AV. If you don't respect my theory, I can't blame you, it seems far fetched to even me. However, with all crazy theories I believe you must assess the risk vs. the reward. Having one mnk in ally who stays within 20' of AV, who maintains active "lockable" hate on AV, and who keeps a faith torque on always is not nearly as risky as most of the proposed theories. As for the reward, it would be pretty nice if we could prevent AV from using any 2hr we want until we're ready to deal with it (say... save manafont for last, for example).

And VS, I'm both comforted and concerned by your reply on the topic of benediction after regen lock. I'll try to study the videos and parses to see what was going wrong for us after benediction.

Edit: although it's fun to flame me for proposing something you already believed impossible a year ago, don't flood out the actually useful information that scientific testing of theories has proven:

Mojo already addressed some of it, like your probability maths being way off.

VS is part of one of maybe 3 linkshells/groups within the NA community who are capable of getting AV down to bracelets mode and co-ordinating an effective stratergy. So when he says that regen remains locked regardless then I think everyone is going to listen to him as he is the only person out of the two of you who has contributed a lot of useful information.

PD and MS were suggested because after he gets bracelets he uses 2hrs in sets of 2 or 3. PD and MS are part of the same set and he will always use PD first allowing time to prepare the zerg and then using what is probably the most tame 2hr for the situation so you have time to carry out the zerg. If you had read the information in this thread you would have known this and the fact that you are attempting AV without reading it really does invalidate what you say.

There is no logic to a minimal lock, its been long established and you are just complicating the fight, if you want to post theories that are ridiculous then expect to get flamed as you put it (although it has been very mild). The second people see the word torque in an AV stratergy you've lost any credibility in an instant, this was a good thread for a while and it would be nice if it just died out without you and all the other retarded theories popping up before it gets locked.

Its not fun to flame you, its depressing to see how we managed so many pages of intelligent discussion and then it reverted back to torques and sleeping yorvas all on 1 page.

[Hercule]

My english skill suck, and i dont read all the thread but, i dont think talk about idea even if its not thats good is that bad Mr Intelligent
I reading maybe 50% of the thread look like i missed some shit

[drwaffles]

I'll leave this to someone who revels in making fools out of the mentally impaired.

[Hercule]

ok i delete all since you dont like good luck on AV

[Cairthenn]

My english skill suck, and i dont read all the thread but, i dont think talk about idea even if its not thats good is that bad Mr Intelligent
I reading maybe 50% of the thread look like i missed some shit

So you're saying you read 50% and you missed the part where AVs 2hrs are lockable? There's really that much garbage theorizing in this thread? Wow.

[Mojo]

Indeed. It's depressing how people are still proposing lock methods and the like when it's already very clear as to how it works.

[Hercule]

So you're saying you read 50% and you missed the part where AVs 2hrs are lockable? There's really that much garbage theorizing in this thread? Wow.

I'm going to read all now to know why if you know how to lock all him 2hrs this fail again.

[Titanss]

I had hoped these people were trolling..

http://i57.photobucket.com/albums/g2...out150x218.jpg

[Agito]

Holy shit....

It's the same thing i said when i seen how many people were deeply enveloped with AV theories.

[didgist]

I know people were probably rubbing one out while they wall tricked him, maybe that is the secret. You have to masturbate while killing it. Honestly the argument goes both ways because in order to completely dismiss someones ideas you would have to legitimately kill AV, which has not been done.

No one knows how to legitimately beat AV and SE isn't going to release any more information about it. Which means 100% of this thread has no idea what the fuck it is talking about.

Bring on the theories.

[Cairthenn]

I know people were probably rubbing one out while they wall tricked him, maybe that is the secret. You have to masturbate while killing it. Honestly the argument goes both ways because in order to completely dismiss someones ideas you would have to legitimately kill AV, which has not been done.

No one knows how to legitimately beat AV and SE isn't going to release any more information about it. Which means 100% of this thread has no idea what the fuck it is talking about.

Bring on the theories.

There is a difference between theorizing and utter bullshit.

[Yinnyth]

It does not matter what two hours AV has access to when it has bracelets, it will have access to Meteor regardless. So you're not going to lock it out by leaving some of them unlocked, you're just going to burden yourself with an overcomplicated and ineffective strategy. Either way, it's already understood as to how to lock two hours and how that affects the triple two hour combo (in bracelets mode,) so really I'm not sure what you're aiming to do other than waste your own time.

Also, the probability you presented was for just Hundred Fists. If AV had access to 11 different two hours and had 37 total two hour uses, then the chances of it not using one of those 11 is about 35%. So yeah, it's nothing exceptional.

Are you saying that he can use meteor while blood weapon is active? Or maybe he'll cast meteor on us while he's using mighty strikes? Because the way I understand it, he can't cast spells during those 2hrs. 30 seconds in bracelet mode without access to meteor sounds a lot safer than 30 seconds with access to meteor to me, but hey, you're the probability expert. I'd love to go with that zerg idea of VS's as soon as I find about 40 capable players who are all willing to get together and play nicely for a few hours, but this minor testing is all I've got right now.

Your skills with probability are astounding. Perhaps you would share the equation you used to reach the conclusion that given 11 equally likely events and 37 occurances, only 10 of the possible events will occur 35% of the time. Let me guess... 37/11 x 10?

[Taruking]

I still believe the only way to defeat AV is to lock Meteor even before it is spawned by performing specific action on JoL, same way certain job abilities and/or 2hrs are locked in CoP dynamis.

AV was created before SE added Fealty to the game. Meteor would have wiped any alliance including SE team during the very first Manafont assuming the video was made legitimately. Even if they somehow manage to survive through it, without using 3rd party tool it'll require immense luck to match AV's manafont using the method described in the video.

SE dev team did the fight because they were asked to, they probably just want to get the whole thing out of the way asap and from the video you can tell they didn't even bother to make macros for gear swap or make an effort to pick the best gear for the fight, both implying that Meteor must have been locked and the fight was not as hard as expected. With Meteor gone, even a mediocre 18 alliance will be able to slowly chip away AV's HP provided autoregen is elimated and benediction is locked, which can potentially take several hours depending on how soon they are able to match AV's benediction.