Absolute Virtue Information (OP Updated)

[Yinnyth]

I still believe the only way to defeat AV is to lock Meteor even before it is spawned by performing specific action on JoL, same way certain job abilities and/or 2hrs are locked in CoP dynamis.

AV was created before SE added Fealty to the game. Meteor would have wiped any alliance including SE team during the very first Manafont assuming the video was made legitimately. Even if they somehow manage to survive through it, without using 3rd party tool it'll require immense luck to match AV's manafont using the method described in the video.

Possible, but unlikely, and extremely difficult to test. I have noticed that JoL uses various colors of 2hr spirals when he's changing elements. I always assumed this was because AV is inside him. AV's 2hr power trips, JoL changes elements to adapt. I've always wondered if it's possible to lock 2hrs (or perhaps other things) on AV through JoL.

However, I think the way the devs dealt with meteor was simply to wipe and recover. That's, of course, assuming they actually had to deal with meteor and didn't outright lock it so it doesn't wipe their cameramen.

[Therin]

Sounds plausible that some action to JoL may lock Meteor before AV has spawned. AV never casted Meteor in the SE video and like you said, if he had, they would have wiped. It still seems unlikely that this is the case though, and even if it is, how were we supposed to draw it from the SE video? The JoL section is short and only shows us to kill Phaubos.

Not many people do testing on JoL itself though so maybe there is a bit of hope in that regard - still, seems unlikely.

[Mojo]

You're correct about AV being unable to access Meteor while some two hours are active, although there is still the 45-65 second downtime between two hours in that it can use Meteor. I can see where you're going try to reduce the amount of time that I has access to Meteor, but it's not going to make a difference. It only takes one to end you. It would probably make the fight even more difficult because it has a penchant for using a weaponskill in tandem with a spell precisely when the duration on a two hour falls off, so your one Meteor is now a Meteor and a potentially devastating weaponskill. Regardless of any of that, VS has already spelled out exactly how the two hour combos work during bracelets mode. What are you seeking to gain by testing what they've already tested?

In regards to the statistics, no that is not the way I did it. I actually didn't even do the math, it was an estimate based on your correct assessment of the probability of no Hundred Fists in 37 activations (under the assumption of equal rate of activation) being equal to 2.74%. There are 11 two hours that it has access to, so all 11 of those have a 2.74% chance of not being activated in 37 activations. The chance of one of those being skipped isn't the sum of those chances, I just approximated it although it's going to be muuuuch higher than 2.74%, maybe even higher than my approximation. I guess I can do the exact math when I get home tonight, but the fact remains that it's really not that improbable.

[Taruking]

SE staff have repeatedly mentioned all the clues can be found in their video, if this is true then Ru'phuabo should be the key factor. All JoL summoned pets have Qn prefix and Ru'phuabo is the only exception. It may represent a subtle clue. Qn'phuabo dat files has been present since AV was first added to the game and no1 has actually seen them, just like how ppl used to be puzzled by the number of Pandemonium Lamp Dat files (~15 copies?) before it was finally figured out.

Testing the theory is not hard at all, just hold JoL at low HP and keep killing Ru'phuabo. This could have been easily overlooked by other LS during their previous attempts. Let's face it how many ppl actually pay attention to shark's name and most serious HNMLS tend to rush through JoL phase to save time for AV itself. Patience is a virtue. Perhaps players are meant to focus on killing Ru'phuabo for the first 1hr+ (until Qu'phuabo spawns?) which in turn weaken AV significantly so that it can be easily taken down before the 2hr mark.

[drwaffles]

SE staff have repeatedly mentioned all the clues can be found in their video, if this is true then Ru'phuabo should be the key factor. All JoL summoned pets have Qn prefix and Ru'phuabo is the only exception. It may represent a subtle clue. Qn'phuabo dat files has been present since AV was first added to the game and no1 has actually seen them, just like how ppl used to be puzzled by the number of Pandemonium Lamp Dat files (~15 copies?) before it was finally figured out.

Testing the theory is not hard at all, just hold JoL at low HP and keep killing Ru'phuabo. This could have been easily overlooked by other LS during their previous attempts. Let's face it how many ppl actually pay attention to shark's name and most serious HNMLS tend to rush through JoL phase to save time for AV itself. Patience is a virtue. Perhaps players are meant to focus on killing Ru'phuabo for the first 1hr+ (until Qu'phuabo spawns?) which in turn weaken AV significantly so that it can be easily taken down before the 2hr mark.

Many, many shells took over an hour or two to kill JoL back when it was new, and there's never been any reports of its spawning patterns changing.

[Cairthenn]

Many, many shells took over an hour or two to kill JoL back when it was new, and there's never been any reports of its spawning patterns changing.

I even recall some shells seeming to think 3-4 hours was "Okay time," and people would have noticed in the spawn pattern changed.

[Ferien]

Many, many shells took over an hour or two to kill JoL back when it was new, and there's never been any reports of its spawning patterns changing.

When it was new there wasn't a 2hr time limit. PW had entire sections of the fight taken away when it was changed, it's easily possible that something similar was done to AV. It's not like this is difficult to test, either.

[drwaffles]

When it was new there wasn't a 2hr time limit.

Then doesn't that make it more likely that someone would've noticed something?

[Siniroth]

Then doesn't that make it more likely that someone would've noticed something?

Only if they didn't change it, but I'm just playing devil's advocate

[Yinnyth]

Regardless of any of that, VS has already spelled out exactly how the two hour combos work during bracelets mode. What are you seeking to gain by testing what they've already tested?

When Absolute Virtue’s HP reaches 79%, it can cast Meteor and Comet without the use of Manafont, and use Explosive Impulse without the use of Meikyo Shisui, however Meteor and Comet are much weaker (approx 1/2 of the base damage of Meteor or Comet when casted under the effect of Manafont). When it reaches 59%, it brings out red bracelets, which increase its attack and MAB greatly. It becomes capable of summoning six wynavs, and will use 2hr abilities in combinations of three. If AV has lost all hate, different AI modes will remain. AV is immune to any form of enfeebles with the exception of some DoT spells, and a few other random things we aren’t even aware of, but are pretty much irrelevant (Fenrir’s Lunar Cry has landed). However, all DoT spells will fall off instantly when it deaggros. Once AV reaches bracelets mode, if it previously did not have all 2hrs locked, they will now be locked if they do not form at least 2/3 2hrs in a set (this is still not entirely clear to us, but it appears to work this way). As AV’s HP decreases it gains both physical and magical resistance as far as damage is concerned, i.e., it progressively takes less damage. Shield Bash damage ranged from 110~223 from 45~100% HP, and non-resisted AMII ranged from 500~800 (this is not damage cut from NM elemental resist building).


Few Bracelets 2hr sets (irrelevant):
(Call Wyvern>Familiar>Astral Flow)
(Invincible>Benediction>Mijin Gakure)
(Meikyo Shisui>Eagle Eye Shot>Eagle Eye Shot>Eagle Eye Shot)

It is not known exactly how it works, and VS has even admitted so himself, though he probably agrees with you that it's a moot point. A few pages back I asked if VS knew any 2hr combinations that weren't listed in his OP, his reply was something to the effect of "off the top of my head, no, but there should be a few screenshots floating around the internet of pre-WoV nerf AV chaining 2hrs". Well, I looked and couldn't find any. So to put things simply:
1: his behavior with 2hrs during bracelets mode is still not fully understood to a degree where anyone can say they know exactly how it works unless they're holding out information on us, or a lying douche.
2: the list of combos he is capable of is incomplete

Those are the gaps in knowlege I was seeking to fill with our last attempt. Waste of time and effort? Well, yeah probably. But enough about me, how are your attempts going, Mojo?

[FailureMidgard]

Your skills with probability are astounding. Perhaps you would share the equation you used to reach the conclusion that given 11 equally likely events and 37 occurances, only 10 of the possible events will occur 35% of the time. Let me guess... 37/11 x 10?

Total possibilities is 11^19*10^18.
Total # of ways to not get Mighty Strikes is 10^19*9^18
Total # of ways to not get Hundred Fists is 10^19*9^18
Total # of ways to not get Hundred Fists or Mighty Strikes is 9^19*8^18
etc

Total # of ways to not get any 1 of 11 given 2hrs : 11C1(10^19*9^18 ) - 11C2(9^19*8^18 ) - 11C3(8^19*7^18 ) - 11C4(7^19*6^18 ) - 11C5(6^19*5^18 ) - 11C6(5^19*4^18 ) - 11C7(4^19*3^18 ) - 11C8(3^19*2^18 ) - 11C9(2^19*1^18 )

You can do it all yourself, or take my word that it's ~24.7%. Mojo was off a bit (I'm assuming he didn't subtract off all the overlap in chances that it doesn't do 2 or 3), but his point is correct that there is a pretty high chance to not see any given 1. The chance to not see "Mighty Strikes" is low, but there's also chances to not see any of the other 11 2hrs.

[Ferien]

Then doesn't that make it more likely that someone would've noticed something?

Not necessarily. If their intent was for you to spend more than 5 hours on JLo alone, then who knows what the limit would have been? We already know they expected PW to take forever, and that vague "fight speed" comment comes to mind too. Like I said, this isn't difficult to test, just sit on JLo for a while and kill it a few minutes before the 2hrs are up. If it doesn't do anything, wonderful, but you can't call it debunked until it's tested.

[Taruking]

The problem is we do not fully understand how killing exceedingly large number of Ru'phuabo is going to affect AV's behaviour. SE only mentioned killing "as many Ru'phuabo as possible" reduces AV's autoregen by half. Since we already know there are Qn'phuabo in sea dat files it makes sense to assume that at some point JoL will start summoning Qn version after certain number of Ru'phuabo are killed which also weakens AV's autoregen and perhaps prevents AV from using Meteor completely. It's just a theory based on what we already know about AV and doesn't necessarily rule out other mechamism. It can be as simple as "defeating X number of Ru'phuabo removes Meteor from AV's spelllist", which can be easily missed pre-patch since AV does not guarantee to spawn after JoL is killed. Another possible explanation is ppl simply did not pay attention to shark's name esp. in a long mind-numbing 3hr JoL fight.

When asked how to block Meteor, SE kept mentioning "regen" and "fight speed" in previous interviews. They were probably referring to JoL instead of AV. I still believe it's the only way to defeat AV without any luck factor or 3rd party tools.

[Therin]

Since we already know there are Qn'phuabo in sea dat files it makes sense to assume that at some point JoL will start summoning Qn version after certain number of Ru'phuabo are killed which also weakens AV's autoregen and perhaps prevents AV from using Meteor completely.

This is baseless nonsense. Unless the Qn's were added at the same time that JoL/AV's timer was dropped to 2 hours, then JoL definitely does not summon Qn'Phaubos.

I've seen it live for four hours prior while watching bad linkshells half-wipe over and over. Trust me, it doesn't happen.

[yotevol]

I figured out the secret to beat AV in this comic... :D
http://lvlup.tsunami-art.com/WebComi...VLUP000127.jpg

[FailureMidgard]

This is baseless nonsense. Unless the Qn's were added at the same time that JoL/AV's timer was dropped to 2 hours, then JoL definitely does not summon Qn'Phaubos.

I've seen it live for four hours prior while watching bad linkshells half-wipe over and over. Trust me, it doesn't happen.

Just gonna say that right after the video was released, everyone was as confident as you are now that matching 2hrs does not lock 2hrs. 1 person claims it's so, so nobody else tries, and for months we all think it's impossible.

It may still be worth trying, once, or looking into, who knows. It's not like another shell repeating what Apathy has done, but in a worse manner is really going to help kill it

[Mojo]

Total possibilities is 11^19*10^18.
Total # of ways to not get Mighty Strikes is 10^19*9^18
Total # of ways to not get Hundred Fists is 10^19*9^18
Total # of ways to not get Hundred Fists or Mighty Strikes is 9^19*8^18
etc

Total # of ways to not get any 1 of 11 given 2hrs : 11C1(10^19*9^18 ) - 11C2(9^19*8^18 ) - 11C3(8^19*7^18 ) - 11C4(7^19*6^18 ) - 11C5(6^19*5^18 ) - 11C6(5^19*4^18 ) - 11C7(4^19*3^18 ) - 11C8(3^19*2^18 ) - 11C9(2^19*1^18 )

You can do it all yourself, or take my word that it's ~24.7%. Mojo was off a bit (I'm assuming he didn't subtract off all the overlap in chances that it doesn't do 2 or 3), but his point is correct that there is a pretty high chance to not see any given 1. The chance to not see "Mighty Strikes" is low, but there's also chances to not see any of the other 11 2hrs.

I actually did take into account the overlap, that's where the estimate came from. 11(10/11)^27, that would give you the probability of all 11 not activating although there would be overlap. However, with the overlap removed, the cases in which two 2 hours were missed would still meet the criteria and would have to be added and then the overlap removed (and this process repeated all the way up to 10 two hours being missed.) 11*(10/11)^27 = 32%~, hence the 35% estimate. I just figured it would be a little bit more than 32% with the overlap removed but then all of the two/three/four/etc. occurrences added on. I actually forgot how to do the math so I wrote a program to approximate it. It was at around 29.95% after 6500 iterations before I went to bed last night. I set it to go to 100,000 but when I woke up and my computer had restarted. It's going now again, hopefully it'll finish this time.

[Mojo]

It is not known exactly how it works, and VS has even admitted so himself, though he probably agrees with you that it's a moot point. A few pages back I asked if VS knew any 2hr combinations that weren't listed in his OP, his reply was something to the effect of "off the top of my head, no, but there should be a few screenshots floating around the internet of pre-WoV nerf AV chaining 2hrs". Well, I looked and couldn't find any. So to put things simply:
1: his behavior with 2hrs during bracelets mode is still not fully understood to a degree where anyone can say they know exactly how it works unless they're holding out information on us, or a lying douche.
2: the list of combos he is capable of is incomplete

Those are the gaps in knowlege I was seeking to fill with our last attempt. Waste of time and effort? Well, yeah probably. But enough about me, how are your attempts going, Mojo?

If you want to call me out on what I've contributed, feel free to go back and peruse through old threads, but it's been more than one helpful thing. I'm sorry if you feel like I'm attacking you, but nobody makes any attempt to keep these threads from wandering off into useless speculation and other theories then they just become unhelpful and people lose interest.

For instance, what's going on with the JoL pets right now is just silly. The pets for any monster are always listed directly under that monster. If you go and look at the dats, you'll see that there are only 27 pets under JoL, thus that is all it will ever summon. JoL is not some fluke exception to this rule. There aren't any Qn'Phaubos in the Al'Taieu DAT file anyway, so they do not exist in that zone. Lastly, if you go through one of the old threads back when people were talking about Aerns and the like, I accounted for every single mob in the zone. There are no additional mobs that JoL or AV summon and the random mobs in the zone are completely unrelated.

[FailureMidgard]

I actually did take into account the overlap, that's where the estimate came from. 11(10/11)^27, that would give you the probability of all 11 not activating although there would be overlap. However, with the overlap removed, the cases in which two 2 hours were missed would still meet the criteria and would have to be added and then the overlap removed (and this process repeated all the way up to 10 two hours being missed.) 11*(10/11)^27 = 32%~, hence the 35% estimate. I just figured it would be a little bit more than 32% with the overlap removed but then all of the two/three/four/etc. occurrences added on. I actually forgot how to do the math so I wrote a program to approximate it. It was at around 29.95% after 6500 iterations before I went to bed last night. I set it to go to 100,000 but when I woke up and my computer had restarted. It's going now again, hopefully it'll finish this time.

It has to be lower than 11*(10/11)^37, as that is including all the overlap, ie, it's counting the chance that neither Mighty Strikes nor Hundred Fists went off. Also, I added the fact that the same 2hr can never be repeated, which is why I have 11^19*10^18, switching that to your "estimation", you have (10/11)^19*(9/10)^18*11=~27% (which is more an upper bound than a good estimation).

I'm 99% sure my numbers are correct, I'm not really sure if you're arguing against them or not, but you say you're running a program to approximate an answer I gave the exact formula to, and you're not even using the right #s, as far as I can tell. I still agree with your original point that someone calling it at 2.x% is way off though.

[hypnotizd]

Since it was brought up that JoL might affect AV, I just rewatched the dev video. Only Ru'phuabos were killed, no Qn as we already know. But the one that that got me was right before JoL died was that taru summoner who called leviathan for no apparent reason and dismissed right as JoL died.

I hate adding to the speculation as much as everyone hates reading it =/

Edit: Apparently that same scene is used in all 4 videos.