Absolute Virtue Information (OP Updated)

[Yinnyth]

Total possibilities is 11^19*10^18.
Total # of ways to not get Mighty Strikes is 10^19*9^18
Total # of ways to not get Hundred Fists is 10^19*9^18
Total # of ways to not get Hundred Fists or Mighty Strikes is 9^19*8^18
etc

Total # of ways to not get any 1 of 11 given 2hrs : 11C1(10^19*9^18 ) - 11C2(9^19*8^18 ) - 11C3(8^19*7^18 ) - 11C4(7^19*6^18 ) - 11C5(6^19*5^18 ) - 11C6(5^19*4^18 ) - 11C7(4^19*3^18 ) - 11C8(3^19*2^18 ) - 11C9(2^19*1^18 )

Interesting stuff, I'm glad you corrected me. So then then the chances of hundred fists (and only hundred fists) never occuring would be ( 10^19*9^18 )/( 11^19*10^18 ) or roughly 2.45%, and not ( 10/11 )^37 or roughly 2.9%. Thank you for taking the time to show the math. It would seem that my system failed to take into account the fact that AV cannot use the same 2hr twice in a row. In addition to that I was focusing completely on hundred fists because if it was any other 2hr that was never used, I would discard it as coincidence because there would be no connections to draw to any of our LS members.

That was my short-sightedness, and I apologize. Though if you'd humor me again, could you explain to me why the total number of possible combinations is ( 11^19*10^18 ) and not ( 11^1*10^36 )? He has access to 11 possibilities on his first usage, but afterwards has access to only 10 due to the fact he can't repeat the one he just used. It wouldn't change much, I just love to learn.

Edit: Mojo, I owe you an apology as well. You were obviously thinking more clearly than I was, and I was out of line.

[Miraun]

I think the main thing to remember about AV is that it is the CoP boss. In CoP dynamis' the bosses have to be weakened in order to kill them effectively. You do this obviously by locking abilities/DEF/elemental weaknesses/2hrs etc., and obviously AV was designed with the exact same ideology, just without the outside NMs aspect. Most likely, everything you need to do to weaken/lock AV is in JoL and AV only, and that obviously includes pets.

Hi, pardon this if it is a more trollish than I anticipate. But I wanted to ask for a point of clarification about the AV tests that have come out.

Your post here directly points at the correlation between the pets and the 'master' mobs. From what I've read of most of the recent attempts, the Call Wyvern ability is the first 2hr ability locked. Furthermore, unless I misunderstood, there have been documented instances of AV not Meteor-ing when certain 2hrs are active: Mighty Strikes / Hundred Fists were the two most common examples. However, have there been any attempts where Call Wyvern is left unlocked, or wynavs are kept alive?

IIRC, didn't one of the Dev commentaries say that AV hates being left alone?

[TaruMortis]

IIRC, didn't one of the Dev commentaries say that AV hates being left alone?

I believe that comment was for almighty apkallu

[Mojo]

It has to be lower than 11*(10/11)^37, as that is including all the overlap, ie, it's counting the chance that neither Mighty Strikes nor Hundred Fists went off. Also, I added the fact that the same 2hr can never be repeated, which is why I have 11^19*10^18, switching that to your "estimation", you have (10/11)^19*(9/10)^18*11=~27% (which is more an upper bound than a good estimation).

I'm 99% sure my numbers are correct, I'm not really sure if you're arguing against them or not, but you say you're running a program to approximate an answer I gave the exact formula to, and you're not even using the right #s, as far as I can tell. I still agree with your original point that someone calling it at 2.x% is way off though.

Eh, maybe. Honestly it's been 5 years since I took a stats class, hence the program the approximate it would be the most accurate way for me. The way the program works should work as it doesn't really involve any assumptions on my part. I assigned 11 variables different prime numbers. The program will choose a random variable 37 times. The product of those numbers is then divided by each variable. If this number is an integer (all prime numbers were used at least once), the result is 0/1. If the product is noninteger (at least one of the prime numbers wasn't used), the result is 1/1. Each iteration yields one result and the results are summed together. This will correctly approximate the probability regardless of whose math is right (although your answer is probably closer than mine.)

[FailureMidgard]

Interesting stuff, I'm glad you corrected me. So then then the chances of hundred fists (and only hundred fists) never occuring would be ( 10^19*9^18 )/( 11^19*10^18 ) or roughly 2.45%, and not ( 10/11 )^37 or roughly 2.9%. Thank you for taking the time to show the math. It would seem that my system failed to take into account the fact that AV cannot use the same 2hr twice in a row. In addition to that I was focusing completely on hundred fists because if it was any other 2hr that was never used, I would discard it as coincidence because there would be no connections to draw to any of our LS members.

That was my short-sightedness, and I apologize. Though if you'd humor me again, could you explain to me why the total number of possible combinations is ( 11^19*10^18 ) and not ( 11^1*10^36 )? He has access to 11 possibilities on his first usage, but afterwards has access to only 10 due to the fact he can't repeat the one he just used. It wouldn't change much, I just love to learn.

Edit: Mojo, I owe you an apology as well. You were obviously thinking more clearly than I was, and I was out of line.

Ok ya, that was dumb of me, that should be 11*10^36, but all the other numbers should be matching in form. Total # of way to not get MS is 10*9^36, etc.
So I guess my final answer is off by a small amount, I don't feel like repeating it though, as the actual # isn't really very relevant, it will still be significantly higher than you originally said, and still somewhat near to what I said. My bad, I apparently wasn't thinking too clearly at 5 AM

Anyway, I'll admit I didn't even read your original post about Hundred Fists not being used, but things similar to this happen all the time, and people are very commonly off base. People think that after doing salvage for X amount of time, it's "terrible luck" to still have not seen <insert random piece here>, and it is, if you focus in on that 1 piece. But the odds of not seeing any 1 piece after that time is quite likely and normal. So my group may have never seen Mori legs, and another group may have never seen Skadi legs, etc. Same shit goes for chariots/etc. It's hard for some to distinguish the difference between not seeing 1 specific occurrence and not seeing any 1 out of a group of specific occurrences.
But ya, it should always have general form I listed.

Edit: I lied and redid it, # looks like it should be closer to ~21.04% unless I made another mistake.

[Mojo]

You must be making a mistake. The way I'm approximating it is right (I error checked every step of my program and the method makes sense.) Even with just 6500 iterations, it wouldn't be off by 9%.

[FailureMidgard]

Eh, maybe. Honestly it's been 5 years since I took a stats class, hence the program the approximate it would be the most accurate way for me. The way the program works should work as it doesn't really involve any assumptions on my part. I assigned 11 variables different prime numbers. The program will choose a random variable 37 times. The product of those numbers is then divided by each variable. If this number is an integer (all prime numbers were used at least once), the result is 0/1. If the product is noninteger (at least one of the prime numbers wasn't used), the result is 1/1. Each iteration yields one result and the results are summed together. This will correctly approximate the probability regardless of whose math is right (although your answer is probably closer than mine.)

You're ignoring the fact still that the same number can't be chosen 2 times in a row, which will give you a slightly higher approximation than the actual number.

[Mojo]

... fuck

[FailureMidgard]

... fuck

It does make sense to you though that that is giving you a higher number right? Since after the first #, the chance of picking a "not yet chosen #" has it's upper bound lowered from 10/11 to 9/10, ~1%, since it is always a number that is already chosen that is removed from the pool.

[Mojo]

Yes, that would be accurate, although I will still reprogram it to approximate it under the condition of not being able to choose the same number twice in a row to see if your math is right.

[FailureMidgard]

Yes, that would be accurate, although I will still reprogram it to approximate it under the condition of not being able to choose the same number twice in a row to see if your math is right.

If you care, if I modify my formula to allow repeats, it gives 28.94%, which is quite in line with what you were getting.

[Ferien]

This is baseless nonsense. Unless the Qn's were added at the same time that JoL/AV's timer was dropped to 2 hours, then JoL definitely does not summon Qn'Phaubos.

I've seen it live for four hours prior while watching bad linkshells half-wipe over and over. Trust me, it doesn't happen.

And my point is that if their initial intention was for you to fight JLo for 5, 6 hours or even more before you started on AV, then your 4 hours spent watching it doesn't mean a thing. Like I said, it now takes at most 2 hours to debunk this theory, and since most LSes can't put up a decent fight against AV, it's worth the time to at least prove this one wrong.

[Virtuous Saint]

And my point is that if their initial intention was for you to fight JLo for 5, 6 hours or even more before you started on AV, then your 4 hours spent watching it doesn't mean a thing. Like I said, it now takes at most 2 hours to debunk this theory, and since most LSes can't put up a decent fight against AV, it's worth the time to at least prove this one wrong.

Not sure what you are talking about, but I can assure you that you have to have at least 1 full hr on AV or you have absolutely no chance of killing it even if it spawned fully locked.

[Mojo]

Also, just sayin', I spent close to 2 hours with a linkshell fighting JoL after the patch and nothing remarkable occurred. It's completely debunked.

[Taruking]

Also, just sayin', I spent close to 2 hours with a linkshell fighting JoL after the patch and nothing remarkable occurred. It's completely debunked.

How do you know it has no additional effect on AV? JoL spawning Qn'phuabo is just one of the many possible scenarios, as I said before it can be as simple as killing X number of Ru'phuabo to lock Meteor. A better way to test the theory - kill as many Ru'phuabo as possible in the first 1.5hrs > fight AV to see if Meteor is locked.

There are still many questions left unanswered. For example is there a guaranteed way to lock benediction? Without using 3rd party tool, it will be extremely difficult to match AV's benediction. Just seems impossible to defeat AV within the 2hr limit unless meteor/benediction can be locked and I still think JoL holds the key to success. SE probably make it a 2hr fight to prevent waste of time and exp, no point fighting AV itself if your alliance already kill JoL without locking Meteor.

[Yugl]

Without using 3rd party tool, it will be extremely difficult to match AV's benediction.

Oh but that's the beauty of this fight. You see, when you finally figure out this chaotic mess, SE will know you've used third party tools and ban you. So the fun part about this will be when we see the two subsequent messages:

- AV has finally been defeated by a 18man alliance using the proper method!
- 18 Accounts have been banned by the STF

[Virtuous Saint]

How do you know it has no additional effect on AV? JoL spawning Qn'phuabo is just one of the many possible scenarios, as I said before it can be as simple as killing X number of Ru'phuabo to lock Meteor. A better way to test the theory - kill as many Ru'phuabo as possible in the first 1.5hrs > fight AV to see if Meteor is locked.

There are still many questions left unanswered. For example is there a guaranteed way to lock benediction? Without using 3rd party tool, it will be extremely difficult to match AV's benediction. Just seems impossible to defeat AV within the 2hr limit unless meteor/benediction can be locked and I still think JoL holds the key to success. SE probably make it a 2hr fight to prevent waste of time and exp, no point fighting AV itself if your alliance already kill JoL without locking Meteor.

What?............. Benediction is one of the easiest to lock without a bot, you simply keep AV targeted and when it hits 100% you use instantly, it won't be 100% because you will be locking regen while locking 2hrs.

[Taruking]

What?............. Benediction is one of the easiest to lock without a bot, you simply keep AV targeted and when it hits 100% you use instantly, it won't be 100% because you will be locking regen while locking 2hrs.

yeah like your whm have no better thing to do than staring at AV hp bar?

[Mojo]

I stated it earlier but a Qn'Phaubo spawn does not exist in Al'Taeiu. I have accounted for literally every single mob in that DAT file. The Ru'Phaubos have only shown to affect Regen and absolutely no evidence to suggest that they affect anything else has ever been observed. If you're looking for 'conclusive proof' in those regards, then you're looking for something that doesn't exist. What I mean by that is there are an infinite number of ways that Ru'Phaubos could affect Meteor. Maybe Meteor will be locked if you kill only 33 Ru'Phaubos and then do 600 damage will the Scission skillchain to Absolute Virtue. It's a possibility, it needs to be disproved, right!? Well what about the scenario where you kill 39 Ru'Phaubos and then have a Ranger use Eagle Eye Shot to kill Jailer of Love. Clearly I'm on to something here because there are Ru'Phaubos in the Square Enix video while there are no Rangers, so they're trying to show us what to do by showing us what not to do.

Anyways, my silly examples aside, that's the problem here. There are an infinite number of complex situations people are coming up with and presenting as theories. Just because they haven't been disproved doesn't mean they're not fucking retarded ideas. Ru'Phaubos affecting Meteor is a fucking retarded idea for a variety of reasons. These are ideas being presented by people who are not informed enough to even know why it's impossible for a Qn'Phaubo to spawn in Al'Taeiu, so it shouldn't come as a surprise.

Also, that question has been answered many times. The method to lock Benediction has been clearly established.

[Kaiyoko]

yeah like your whm have no better thing to do apart from staring at AV hp bar?

This is why you have a lock pt.