HQ Crafting: Revisited 2009

[Liminality]

All rights to this information go to Eruntalon of Alla from back in 2004.
Allakhazam.com: Final Fantasy XI

First off a big thank you to most of the Allakahzam community for piquing my interest in looking into the HQ mystery. What follows is my research in the realm of HQ. My methodology was to explore as many of the different angles that have been brought up on this forum as I could.

I. Possible Contributing Factors Considered

Skill Level � It is rumored that the HQ chance is not linear, but is actually tiered. It is further rumored that there is a maximum chance that hovers somewhere around 50%.

Crystal/Day � The crystal I use is always Wind for the purposes of this experiment. The analysis will focus on the Days in relation to this one crystal.

Moon Phase � Only 3 moon phases will be considered, New Moon (0%), Full Moon (100%), and Quarter Moon (50%)

Direction Faced � I�m not even going to take this one into consideration, but will face the same direction for every synth��just in case.

II. Conditions

I am currently at level 61 Woodworking. The target synths will be wands. Wands were chosen because 1) They have only one HQ level, 2) They are cheap to synth, 3) They exist at regular intervals in the different skill levels, and 4) I can make money off of them. ^^

III. Results and Analysis

This experiment consisted of A LOT of synths, 2304 to be exact, not counting breaks. All of my data is in Excel format, and for the sake of space I will not post all of the raw data here. I will only be posting the relevant results. If people actually want the raw numbers, I can post them��if you really want them��I suppose��.-_-

Experiment 1: Maple Wands (Skill Cap 6)

The results from synthing Maple Wands were inconclusive. I consistently achieved HQs 40-50% of the time. I attribute these results to difference between my skill level and the skill cap being over 50, therefore reaching the cap on HQ chance. Because of this, I did not consider these results in the overall analysis.

Experiment 2 & 3: Willow Wands (Skill Cap 14) & Yew Wands (Skill Cap 23)
The Data:

Day Moon Phase Synths HQs HQ Percent
Firesday New Moon 48 21 43.75%
Earthsday New Moon 48 13 27.08%
Watersday New Moon 48 19 39.58%
Windsday New Moon 48 15 31.25%
Iceday New Moon 48 27 56.25%
Lightningday New Moon 48 17 35.42%
Lightsday New Moon 48 12 25.00%
Darksday New Moon 48 28 58.33%
Firesday Full Moon 48 10 20.83%
Earthsday Full Moon 48 6 12.50%
Watersday Full Moon 48 8 16.67%
Windsday Full Moon 48 7 14.58%
Iceday Full Moon 48 13 27.08%
Lightningday Full Moon 48 8 16.67%
Lightsday Full Moon 48 6 12.50%
Darksday Full Moon 48 13 27.08%
Firesday Quarter Moon 48 12 25.00%
Earthsday Quarter Moon 48 7 14.58%
Watersday Quarter Moon 48 8 16.67%
Windsday Quarter Moon 48 9 18.75%
Iceday Quarter Moon 48 17 35.42%
Lightningday Quarter Moon 48 10 20.83%
Lightsday Quarter Moon 48 6 12.50%
Darksday Quarter Moon 48 15 31.25%



Analysis:

Crystal vs. Day:

If we average out all of the days, regardless of moon phase we get:
Darksday 38.89%
Earthsday 18.06%
Firesday 29.86%
Iceday 39.58%
Lightningsday 24.31%
Lightsday 16.67%
Watersday 24.31%
Windsday 21.53%
From this we can conclude that Iceday and Darksday gave the highest results, and Earthsday and Lightsday gave the lowest. We notice Darksday and Lightsday are at the opposite ends of the spectrum. We must also note that Wind is weak against Ice, and is strong against Earth. The results reflect this relationship.

Moon Phase

If we average out all of the Moon Phases, regardless of days we get:
Full Moon 18.49%
Quarter Moon 21.88%
New Moon 39.58%
From this we can conclude that New Moon gave the highest results, and Full Moon gave the lowest results.


So if we follow the indicators, our best results should be on Ice/Darksday on a New Moon, and our worst results should be on Light/Earthsday on a Full Moon. Pulling from the data above we get:
Darksday New Moon 58.33%
Iceday New Moon 56.25%
Lightsday Full Moon 12.50%
Earthsday Full Moon 12.50%

For the sake of comparison:
Darksday New Moon 58.33%
Darksday Full Moon 27.08%
Lightsday New Moon 25.00%
Lightsday Full Moon 12.50%

Experiment 4: Chestnut Wands (Skill Cap 32)

The results from synthing Chestnut Wands were inconclusive. I consistently achieved HQs 8-16% of the time regardless of moon phase or day of the week. Combining these results with my results from Experiment 1, leads me to believe that the HQ rate is indeed non-linear. Notice when I was 50+ above the skill cap, results became constant. With Experiment 4 I am less than 30 above the skill cap, however slightly, and my results again became constant.

While I do not have enough conclusive data to support it, I would speculate that the following tiers are in place:

Tier 1: at 51 above the skill cap Updated, see bottom
Tier 2: at 31 above the skill cap Updated, see bottom
Tier 3: around 10 above the skill cap
Tier 4: at or below the skill cap

With the following effects:

Tier 1: HQ capped at 50%
Tier 2: HQ greatly affected by moon phase and day
Tier 3: HQ minimally affected by moon phase and day
Tier 4: Minimal chance of HQ


IV. Conclusion

So what does all this mean? Is there a formula to HQ? Yes. But, it relies greatly upon the situation. I would have to say again, it appears that moon/day has the greatest effect on Tier 2 synths. However, regardless of which Tier your synth falls into, if you're going specifically for HQ items, my advice is as follows:

Craft during a new moon.
Craft on Darksday and/or the day your crystal is weak against.


Happy crafting to all, and may all your stuff sell after mine. ^^


Addendum

Each individual synth has no correlation to any other individual synth. Everyone has their philosophy (or should at least) when they go to synth HQ.

One synth is worthless when going for an HQ. I always synth a "stack" of materials, which generally ends up 12 total synths. It is these 12 synths that I use to determine my success each time. I've had times where I've gotten 1/12 when I was 50+ and I've had times when I've gone 8/12. I still say that 50% is the maximum CHANCE. I had X chance of synthing my HQs. If i get it, I had a good day, if I don't it was a bad day. I never do 48 synths in a sitting, except when I was tracking these numbers.

But, I would rather synth at a time that I have a 50% CHANCE of getting HQ, rather than 8%. I just decided to systematically track my results, rather than work with false assumptions (ex. getting 70% and saying OMG!!!! WAXING GIBBOUS IS THE BEST DAY!!!).

HQ is one way to make money in crafting. But, even with a formula, it is not a get rich quick way of making money. Making money in crafting relies on the fundamentals of any business, and the risks involved.



EDIT: Added 10/28/2004, edited again on 12/27/04
From my observations, it seems clear to me that the actual Tier break is 31. To satisfy the more inquisitive, this was determined with 108 total synths. The target synth was Chestnut Sabots, skill cap 32. 12 synths each day (total 36) were performed on 3 different New Moon/Icedays at skill level 61. This was repeated at skill level 62, and again at skill level 63.

The results were as follows:

Skill Level # of Synths # of HQ PCT
61 36 4 11.1
62 36 5 13.9
63 36 15 41.7

Whether or not this has any correlation to where the other tier breaks are, I have no idea.

EDIT: Added 11/1/2004
Here are the condtions:

Current Skill level 63

Target Synths were Holly Lumber (12) and Willow Lumber (13).

All synths were done over the course of Firesday > Earthsday> Watersday and a Full Moon.

Majority of the synths were on Earthsday/Full Moon. Technically the worst possible day to HQ with a Wind Crystal.


Results:

Synth Total HQ PCT
Holly Lumber 36 25 69.4%
Willow Lumber 36 2 5.6%


I think I was getting pretty lucky with my HQ "rolls" since I ended up well above 50%, as well I wouldn't have expected any HQ on the Willow, and yet I got 2, and both were on Earthsday. o.O

This information was published way back in 2004 and has really become the accepted standards from 2009. This is obvious in the following Wiki link which has been edited by the FFXI community:
High Quality - FFXIclopedia, the Final Fantasy XI wiki - Characters, items, jobs, and more

Testing has shown that the rate of high quality synthesis is correlated with your skill in the relevant craft, according to the following table:
Level Range -10 - -1 0 - 10 11 - 30 31 - 50 51 - 70 71 - 90 91 - 110 Success Rate 50%





HQ Rate
1-2% 8-10% 25% 50%

It is important to know that certain Guild items raise your effective craft by a maximum of +3, and advanced synthesis support by another +3. This results in a maximum crafting skill of 106, making 55 the highest recipe in tier 3, 75 the highest in tier 2, and 95 the highest in tier 1.
The other factor influencing your high quality rate is the current Vana'diel day and Moon Phase.

• Crafting with a crystal thats element is strong to the current day will decrease your chances of receiving a HQ result but increase your chances of succeeding
• Using a crystal that is weak to the current day will decrease your chances of succeeding whilst increasing your chances of a HQ result
• New Moon: Increases HQ rate, decreases success rate
• Full Moon: Increases success, decreases HQ rate

Source

My question however is to not contradict these widely accepted terms/conditions for HQ. I am a 100+3 Woodworker. I recently bought around 20 Ebony Logs for future synth into trying to HQ Elemental Staves.

The conditions for these Synth:

Ebony Lumber - Caps @ 61
Wind Crystal
Ebony Log x1

WW (100+3) - 61 = 42, which is widely believe to be in the T2 spectrum (@ 25%). I will not include the day/direction as numbers for raising this number, because those are generally rationalized and not proven by any means.

The synth was carried out on Iceday + (86%) Waxing Gibbous. Iceday is believe to be best for HQ w/ Wind, disregarding Darksday. (Moon phase I am disregarding here considering I'm well above the verge of the T2 cap).

My question is: Does the current elemental attribute of equipment that you have on while synthin' affect your HQ rate? If so, is there a test/calculations on this that are extensive enough to have decent results?

The reason I ask this is because I had, for the most part, Apollo's Staff (+20 Dark), Apron (+1 Wind, +1 Earth), and Gloves (+1 Earth) equipped.

I did not achieve ANY HQs with this setup during synth. Just as a curious little Tarutaru, I unequipped my Apollo's Staff (+20 Dark) on the last 5 synths. So @ this point, I was 0/15 on HQ for Ebony Lumber, which I found to be a little odd considering that I was well above said cap and @ the very least I should've had 1/12 for an HQ.

On the last 5 synths, I went 3/5 on HQs, with one of them even being an HQ2. So, this had piqued my interest to if anyone has done tests on this particular condition of HQ conditions. Mostly because I will attempting to HQ ~30 Elemental Staves on the upcoming Iceday + New Moon (0%), which is around 3M worth of beads.

Any speculation/advice/experience is appreciated... if it is reasonably logical.

~Ninja Edit~

Forgot to include for all synths: I was facing East, which is believed to be best for HQ direction according to the stars in the Vana'diel sky.

[cdgreg]

=*(

[urat]

I have noticed water resists did effect fishing, but one could try doing some crazy overkill set up for wind, rocking dark staff, diablos belt, and a bunch of other dark+ set.

Or just get a goldsmither with a fire resist build to toss it on plus fire carol and barfire etc etc and see what happens then. @_@

[Liminality]

I have noticed water resists did effect fishing, but one could try doing some crazy overkill set up for wind, rocking dark staff, diablos belt, and a bunch of other dark+ set.

Or just get a goldsmither with a fire resist build to toss it on plus fire carol and barfire etc etc and see what happens then. @_@

The water resist affected your Fishing in what way? As in more skill-ups/catches/etc.? Also, fishing varies greatly from normal crafting as there in no "HQ" way to fish. My Fishing is currently 94, and I have not really noticed any patterns in skill-ups, other than it being totally /random.

One of my main concerns is that maybe the +20 Dark was "overpowering" the +1 Wind and +2 Earth to were their effect on any said synth was minimal, at best.

Of course, this is all just speculation without any hard facts to back-up the claims.

Also, you'd have to do a very large amount of synths under those conditions, which is why I'm trying to see if anyone has laid out statistical data on this in the past.

[urat]

I was rocking about +130 water resist (ramuh belt, thunder staff, double water earrings, lamia neckpiece, etc etc)

My bite rate, or lack of no bites, doubled.

And yeah its definitely different than other crafts =P

[Zouri]

My crafting mule only wears the crafting armor, but when it did have job armor, i saw no noticable difference. I can tell you that 20 synths is by no means a large sample group. You had a bad run until the end. It happens to all of us at one point or another. If i look at the majority of the days i hq'd something, none of them fit into any percieved theory.

Testing every possible combination is prohibitively expensive. To get a good sample would take doing at least 50 synths under every single condition possible.... That would either take large scale collaboration of hundreds of crafters; or one person with hundreds of millions of gil to waste and countless hours to sit and craft..... Neither of which have yet been accomplished. If it hasnt happened since 2002, dont hold your breath on it. I believe it's all just coinsidence.

[Liminality]

My crafting mule only wears the crafting armor, but when it did have job armor, i saw no noticable difference. I can tell you that 20 synths is by no means a large sample group. You had a bad run until the end. It happens to all of us at one point or another. If i look at the majority of the days i hq'd something, none of them fit into any percieved theory.

Testing every possible combination is prohibitively expensive. To get a good sample would take doing at least 50 synths under every single condition possible.... That would either take large scale collaboration of hundreds of crafters; or one person with hundreds of millions of gil to waste and countless hours to sit and craft..... Neither of which have yet been accomplished. If it hasnt happened since 2002, dont hold your breath on it. I believe it's all just coinsidence.

You're mostly probably right. Also, it may have been because Iceday was two days out from Full Moon @ the time of synth might have significantly reduced HQ rating.

However, for the next couple of weeks, I won't wear any affecting elemental gear other than the +1 Apron and Gloves, just out of curiosity and record some of my HQ rates.

HQ testing and results have been around for years, but I know others don't believe in the testing and will shoot for HQ cursed gear, which @ best is a T1 synth. Although T1 is said to not be greatly affected by day/moon, I still think the results of past have some merit into any HQ crafting. It's all about getting the probability % up. Cause all HQ crafting is pure chance, but we try and push that chance into our favor.

However, this would not really explain the ability to have more fish hit your line with a Water Resist set. So, maybe elemental resists may have some merit, no matter how small, in increasing (or decreasing) some variable in crafting?

[Zouri]

New Moon: Increases HQ rate, decreases success rate
Full Moon: Increases success, decreases HQ rate

heh... today was full moon. check the hq thread. I think something is amiss here.

[Liminality]

New Moon: Increases HQ rate, decreases success rate
Full Moon: Increases success, decreases HQ rate

heh... today was full moon. check the hq thread. I think something is amiss here.

It was two Vana'diel days FROM Full Moon. It wasn't actually Full Moon when I crafted them, but I did say that could be taken into consideration

InB4: "OMFG!@#$... Moon phase/direction has nothing to do with crafting AT ALL!" .....lulz

[Zouri]

i meant for that to be sarcasm... i guess it sounded that way in my head.

[Liminality]

Oh... now I get it /facepalm

~Ninja Edit~

Also, I have a question about the commonly used:

http://ffxi.lokyst.net/timer2/crafttimer.html

If the number is above -31.00 (ex. Advanced Support, Iceday, New Moon (0%)), then you are not in T2 range, correct? Even if your "Base Difficulty" is @ -31.00?

[cdgreg]

Also, I have a question about the commonly used:

FFXI Crafting Timer

Most of us here don't believe in this voodoo. I'm not entirely sure how "common" it is around here.

[Liminality]

Most of us here don't believe in this voodoo. I'm not entirely sure how "common" it is around here.

Well, I'm not saying that SE literally set out to take the time and make crafting the most impossible thing ever, cause it obviously is not after all these years.

However, I found an interesting post in my research into HQ crafting:

A Wandering Galka - HQ Crafting

Here is an excerpt I found particularly interesting...

I believe the superstitious players (I am one of them) are right also. YOU CAN MAXIMIZE YOUR SUCCESS by doing all the right things. I am absolutely convinced that you can optimize your crafting and get the most out of it by doing it at the right time and conditions. The game designers did put hints all throughout the game that the elements affect your every move. This whole crystal concept is too far reaching. Can you do more damage on Lightningday with a Thunder III spell. Yes! Where is that documented in the spell description? No where. It is a known thing. Having a HQ stave of the same element adds to your damage as do other items of equipment. Food adds by changing your statistics. How about fishing during a half moon (40% - 60% moon). Bite rates suck, few fishies bite, more monsters, more junk caught. There are elemental effects throughout this game. The trick is to try to get them to work for you.

(All rights go to the original poster @ the above link).

If you really think about it, it does make sense that there would be optimal conditions for trying to achieve on HQ. As he stated, there is no condition in all of FFXI that says if you do this one this day at this time, that you will ALMOST ALWAYS get an HQ.

I still believe that elemental days have a merit on an synth, considering EVERY Final Fantasy game revolves around the crystals. I mean for fuck sakes... every single storyline in FFXI literally revolves around crystals, except for ToAU (I don't believe there was an mentions of crystals in ToAU, but I could be wrong).

Rise of Zilart - Crystals in almost every cutscene. Having to gather elemental shards.

Chains of Promathia - Just a big "Duh" right here.

Nation Missions - Magicite... Shadow Lord, anyone?

Wings of the Goddess - Don't even get me started... "The Crystal War".

A Crystalline Prophecy - Not even going to bother with an explanation.

I think you can see where I'm going with all of this. I just believe it's not just pure coincidence that all of this points to one condition.

For the same reason it is common knowledge that people cast Ice on Iceday, people use Ice Crystals on Iceday... optimizing their success.

To just ignore these obvious signs throughout all of the FF series is just being blatantly ignorant, imo.

[cdgreg]

All I see is a bunch of crackpot theory with no data to back it up unless I'm missing some massive spreadsheet? He should have just left his LJ entry at this point...

In the "old days" this was a hotly debated topic. We crafters were looking for anything that would lead to our ability to decipher the HQ "code". What the data geeks taught us was there was no pattern. There was no magical pattern that said if you craft on this day with this moon phase facing this direction you will ALWAYS get an HQ. Instead the numerical results showed the randomness of it all. This early testing led to the discovery of the "tiers".

I admit I've only skimmed your posts since most of them seem to be based off really old alla threads as well as people's baseless theory. If you really care to prove or disprove for that matter whether direction/moon/stupid elemental resist gear matters why don't you instead of having a monsterous debate ask how to best set up an experiment, and ask people to help you by doing X numbers of synths under X conditions and post the information?

I'd love to help prove/disprove this crap. Obviously I believe it's all buffoonery, but I will help conduct an experiment with a neutral mindset.

[Liminality]

I believe I will take you up on that. I will choose a T2 synth which has an HQ rate of believed to be ~25%. I was thinking Demon Arrows.

Here would be the following conditions: (Here I will be testing out the effect of days on crystals, as well as possible effects of Moon Phases. I will not be testing direction, even though it is believed to affect HQ ratings.)

1) Always facing the same direction (For this I will choose Southeast, since I'm superstitious about the direction, but will not be changing direction. So, direction here will be completely irrelevant.)

2) I will only consider Full Moons and New Moons.

3) All synths will be done in the same equipment each time.

4) HQ2 and HQ3 of said synth with just be noted as an HQ. (An HQ is an HQ, no matter what Tier of an HQ it is.)

Since it is already widely accepted what the core Tier values are, these need no testing and are irrelevant.

The core value is 103 - 69 = 34 (So that if moon phase/day does affect, I will still be well into the T2 range for it to still be considered a constant variable.)

Is there anything I am missing here Cdgreg? It will take some time to compile the data, but it should be relatively quick considering a stack of materials for this is 99 in one sitting.

[cdgreg]

I have no clue bud. I don't know how to set up any effective tests lol. I was thinking more along the lines of a ridiculously low/cheap/easily obtainable material synth that many of us can do since it's going to require such a massive sample size and specific variables. It'd probably have to be a skill level 1 synth where everyone is T0. But once again, I have no clue how to setup effective tests for this. If you can find someone knowledgeable enough in how to set up an appropriate test that would be the place to start.

[Liminality]

I have no clue bud. I don't know how to set up any effective tests lol. I was thinking more along the lines of a ridiculously low/cheap/easily obtainable material synth that many of us can do since it's going to require such a massive sample size and specific variables. It'd probably have to be a skill level 1 synth where everyone is T0. But once again, I have no clue how to setup effective tests for this. If you can find someone knowledgeable enough in how to set up an appropriate test that would be the place to start.

Yes, I definitely understand where you're coming from, but the problem with considering a T0/T1 synth is that the % chance of an HQ is so incredibly small, that the results of trying to compare HQ/NQ rates based on ANY conditions would be very minimal on a graph, or side-by-side comparison.

The same problem with using a T3 synth, since it is believed to cap @ ~50% HQ rating, would be very minimal because HQ/NQ rates would be very high and close to each other.

That's why it's imperative to chose a T2 synth cause of the radical changes in percentages based on moon phase/day to be able to make a fair comparison between the conditions.

I'm not very familiar with performing anything other than chemical experiments xD

[Liminality]

I found this little guide right here to be very informative (whether or not you actually believe in the "voodoo" of HQ crafting):

World and Elemental Effects - FFXICooking.com

[Jojojo]

Goddammit. I was reading this expecting some tests, not "here's what eruntalon said in 2004 now does elemental resistance help HQ LOL"

[Gatsby]

Start Voodoo Magic

For leveling purposes, I found that I was getting better skill up rates when i was using my NIN with a BBQ ring I compared this against what skill up rates I was getting when i was on my RDM with minimal HQ resistance. I became superstitious after a while and only skilled up while wearing that gear. How much do I trust it? Don't know but I want as much voodoo magic on my side.

End Voodoo Magic.

Could it play significantly? It might but that's a ton of tests that need to be done. What's a good distinguishable low level synth that could be used to test this?