HQ Crafting: Revisited 2009

[nitsuj]

There is mathematical code in this game,

You are correct, sir.

But you do not know this mathematical code, and saying you do makes you no better than the OP.

All you have is theories as well. Even relativity in a theory, you said it yourself. Sometimes we can't prove what we know is right, so we just accept it.

Sure we can get damn close. But what if that 0.1 margin of error is "GetHQModifier(charcharDirection, pPlayer);" ?

You don't know, either. All I'm saying is don't get so worked up over something you feel so strongly about in your heart as being right when you can't prove it either.

It reminds me of people standing in front of "some" event with picket signs screaming profanity at anyone going into "said event".

They believe so strongly in what they're protesting that they get sick, they get red in the face, and they will even get into fistfights with the people attending.

But for what? You're not going to change people's thoughts with that kind of attitude. You just come off as sounding like you're full of hate and anger instead of rational thought and arguments.

I'm not trying to be a dick or anything here.. I just hate to see people on web forums get angry over things that DON'T MATTER and CAN'T BE PROVED anyways.

Unless you work at Square Enix and you're bring NDA (or if your friend works at square enix and you tell us the secret formula you're breaking HIS NDA by proxy and he can be fired) then for all we know....

GetHQModifier(charcharDirection, pPlayer) COULD be the missing 0.01 margin of error in the crafting formula. Followed by an additive multiplier of GetHQModifier(sRace, pPlayer) and "HasInInventory(["Lucky Egg", "Millionaires Desk"], pPlayer);

And we could be descended from Aliens. Or Xenu. Mind blowing, I know. But everyone should just relax. Let people have their hypotheticals. Don't be the dude with the picket sign, and don't be the lackee's standing outside the gate of the event too scared to do shit themselves saying "Oh I mean, I hope so and so gets here soon to troll and make fun of these people! Oh man, I'd do it myself but I'm too chicken shit, so I'll just wait for him/her to do it!".

Seriously people.

(and yes, I'm having a bad day today)

EDIT: to the OP - I agree with Sath though, if you want to discuss this, be prepared to go and back up your ideas with some gil invested testing. We'd all love to see it.

[Deimos]

The fact that I dismiss it so quickly is no where inside the game does it even remotely hint to one race being good @ a certain craft.

Each race has a particular home town, and those towns have different guilds. What races are the NPCs in those guilds? What race is the Guild Master, specifically?

I think my Woodworking skilled up faster than everything else, it's probably because I'm Elvaan. Or maybe my Bonecraft skilled up faster than normal because I'm allied with Windurst and that's where the guild is.

Those theories have just as much merit as other things that you're considering.

[Liminality]

I'm sorry, but I don't have my own personal blog for these types of things, as I just offer my ideas to the community as a whole.

The problem with HQ Testing is it takes significant time to develop enough results to come to a stable conclusion.

1) You'd have to be wearing the same gear everytime (unless you were testing elemental resists)

2) You'd have to face the same direction everytime (Unless you were testing directions)

3) You'd have to only test during certain moon phases (unless you were considering all moon phases and their %'s)

4) You'd have to repeat steps and wait for exact conditions to continue testing for optimum results in the end

The problem with trying to test out all of these conditions @ once is you really cannot get enough samples to verify any of it. Therefore, you'd only have to be testing direction, or only testing moon phases, or only testing elemental resists.

This would literally take years to do. The amount of samples you would need would have to be enormous to show any really acceptable results in the long-run.

Sort of like this one post I read on Alla about someone disproving the idea that day/moon phase/direction has nothing to do with HQ synthing and "claimed" to have done 17,000 synths of data. Yet... his data was never released and people blindly accepted it in the post as "good information".

Just like this post. This isn't good information, this is just good discussion.

@Deimos:

I've thought about that, but you'd have to consider that there are multiple branches in other places, as well. Unless you are referring to only the main branches where you can trade in your items for GP?

As said, though, most of the people that try out these theories only do the moon phase/day/direction. I've even correlated some HQ sales after the days/hours of New/Full Moons. Not saying these ARE the best day to HQ, but obviously others believe it enough to synth on these days.

If anything else does indeed have precedence on HQ crafting, then we can usually consider it a minimal effect, at best.

[vagus]

What server are you on now? Odin misses your "uniqueness". Heh.

[Liminality]

What server are you on now? Odin misses your "uniqueness". Heh.

I'm now quietly roaming Gilgamesh under an assumed name

[Mistress Stowastiq]

I'm sorry, but I don't have my own personal blog for these types of things, as I just offer my ideas to the community as a whole.

The problem with HQ Testing is it takes significant time to develop enough results to come to a stable conclusion.

1) You'd have to be wearing the same gear everytime (unless you were testing elemental resists)

2) You'd have to face the same direction everytime (Unless you were testing directions)

3) You'd have to only test during certain moon phases (unless you were considering all moon phases and their %'s)

4) You'd have to repeat steps and wait for exact conditions to continue testing for optimum results in the end

The problem with trying to test out all of these conditions @ once is you really cannot get enough samples to verify any of it. Therefore, you'd only have to be testing direction, or only testing moon phases, or only testing elemental resists.

This would literally take years to do. The amount of samples you would need would have to be enormous to show any really acceptable results in the long-run.

Sort of like this one post I read on Alla about someone disproving the idea that day/moon phase/direction has nothing to do with HQ synthing and "claimed" to have done 17,000 synths of data. Yet... his data was never released and people blindly accepted it in the post as "good information".

Just like this post. This isn't good information, this is just good discussion.

@Deimos:

I've thought about that, but you'd have to consider that there are multiple branches in other places, as well. Unless you are referring to only the main branches where you can trade in your items for GP?

As said, though, most of the people that try out these theories only do the moon phase/day/direction. I've even correlated some HQ sales after the days/hours of New/Full Moons. Not saying these ARE the best day to HQ, but obviously others believe it enough to synth on these days.

If anything else does indeed have precedence on HQ crafting, then we can usually consider it a minimal effect, at best.

Noted the info you put there, appreciate it. Most of my game time is spent crafting so I figure I can add another factor into it and collect some information since I have a habit of repeating the crafting habits that lead to successful results.

[BerenTebogo]

Deimos is winning this thread with the best logic I've seen in the crafting forum since the creation of the sticky.

Seriously, for every post from this point on - unelss you can refute Deimos' logic, just don't bother.

[Liminality]

Noted the info you put there, appreciate it. Most of my game time is spent crafting so I figure I can add another factor into it and collect some information since I have a habit of repeating the crafting habits that lead to successful results.

Oh, I also forgot to note...

If you are ONLY trying to test game day results, then you'd have to keep all of the other 4 conditions constant.

You could possibly test Moon Phase and game day @ the same time, but you'd have to note the %'s of the moon very carefully.

~Ninja Edit~

Why is Sath still posting here again? Oh, right... to tell us how completely utterly wrong we are. Pretty sure none of us missed that like 40 posts down, right?

[BerenTebogo]

Well, in case you did: You're still wrong.

[cdgreg]

@Lim

You either missed or ignored my previous post. Anyways, as Mistress mentioned, I believe your discussion would be served much better in a LJ or blog. While this is obviously a public forum the moderators in this forum have worked very hard to keep this section voodoo-free.

The sticky you referred to earlier by Aurik really is our bible and is basically what we follow here. You are more than welcome to have you own ideas, but they seem more fit for a different set of forums or your own personal blog/LJ.

If you want to know why I personally believe this topic will do a lot more bad than good is because most players do not have the mental capacity or comprehension level to discuss without being lured to what most benefits them. This is why we have the bible sticky to cut and paste into their terrible threads. You saw the prime example of this in the fishing thread. Someone said overwhelming water energy does X without any proof, and because we all want it to be true we started following "the dream" instead of following years of no proof. Just because we want something to be true, does not make it so.

[Mistress Stowastiq]

Oh, I also forgot to note...

If you are ONLY trying to test game day results, then you'd have to keep all of the other 4 conditions constant.

You could possibly test Moon Phase and game day @ the same time, but you'd have to note the %'s of the moon very carefully.

Okay, will take that into consideration when narrowing down what I can test on vs want to test on.

[Liminality]

@Lim

You either missed or ignored my previous post. Anyways, as Mistress mentioned, I believe your discussion would be served much better in a LJ or blog. While this is obviously a public forum the moderators in this forum have worked very hard to keep this section voodoo-free.

The sticky you referred to earlier by Aurik really is our bible and is basically what we follow here. You are more than welcome to have you own ideas, but they seem more fit for a different set of forums or your own personal blog/LJ.

If you want to know why I personally believe this topic will do a lot more bad than good is because most players do not have the mental capacity or comprehension level to discuss without being lured to what most benefits them. This is why we have the bible sticky to cut and paste into their terrible threads. You saw the prime example of this in the fishing thread. Someone said overwhelming water energy does X without any proof, and because we all want it to be true we started following "the dream" instead of following years of no proof. Just because we want something to be true, does not make it so.

Yes, I definitely saw the post about the fishing theories. That kinda blew my mind out of the water for like 2 minutes, lol

I do understand what you are saying, though. It was never my intention to "win over" anyone into believing these ideas. Mostly just throw them around and see how others feel/think about it, in an appropriately respectful way *cough*. If someone did choose to try out said theory, the worst that could happen is that they don't synth something for a day or two. If they don't believe it to work, just move on to what you felt was right.

Everyone has their little quirks, I know. I have a quirk about ALWAYS synthing in my Glory Crown. You may ask, "What does the Glory Crown have to do with crafting?" Answer: Absolutely nothing. It's just something I do.

I just think people should have the capacity to decide what they want to do in the end, but maybe I was being too over-presumptuous... :\

[Mistress Stowastiq]

Yes, I definitely saw the post about the fishing theories. That kinda blew my mind out of the water for like 2 minutes, lol

I do understand what you are saying, though. It was never my intention to "win over" anyone into believing these ideas. Mostly just throw them around and see how others feel/think about it, in an appropriately respectful way *cough*. If someone did choose to try out said theory, the worst that could happen is that they don't synth something for a day or two. If they don't believe it to work, just move on to what you felt was right.

Everyone has their little quirks, I know. I have a quirk about ALWAYS synthing in my Glory Crown. You may ask, "What does the Glory Crown have to do with crafting?" Answer: Absolutely nothing. It's just something I do.

I just think people should have the capacity to decide what they want to do in the end, but maybe I was being too over-presumptuous... :\

I tend not to follow the bible and have been trying my own path because it proves more interesting to discover what works for my own crafting/profit needs and I personally want more conclusive data than what is been given so I will develop it.

I have no interest in swaying others to follow my conclusions should it provide conclusive data or increase my HQ rate, it is entirely optional. If people need something to follow the sticky is there. If you are dis/encouraged into making posts elsewhere please let me know of it though.

[cdgreg]

Meant this reply that I think you missed on page 2.

If it was true that every crafter of the same level/caliber had an "average" chance in the long-run of things, then everyone would have earned the same amount of gil in the long-run (give or take a few for AH pricing fluctuations). I find this hard to believe.

I think you got something right here, yet ironically you find it wrong. What you're incorrect on is your assumption that everyone will have earned the same amount of gil in the long run. What makes or breaks a crafter who profits from one who does not is the research. The one who profits is the one who knows his craft recipes inside and out, has appropriate subs leveled, understands the tier system, and stops crafting a certain item when the market is down. The one who does not profit is the guy who leveled bonecraft to 100 with no subs, floods X item because it seems like a big ticket HQ, and is on BG posting the topic "What do I synth to make money?"

[Liminality]

Meant this reply that I think you missed on page 2.



I think you got something right here, yet ironically you find it wrong. What you're incorrect on is your assumption that everyone will have earned the same amount of gil in the long run. What makes or breaks a crafter who profits from one who does not is the research. The one who profits is the one who knows his craft recipes inside and out, has appropriate subs leveled, understands the tier system, and stops crafting a certain item when the market is down. The one who does not profit is the guy who leveled bonecraft to 100 with no subs, floods X item because it seems like a big ticket HQ, and is on BG posting the topic "What do I synth to make money?"

Oh, definitely true. Any experienced crafter would know not to flood any market of "X" item cause then you're getting into demand vs. supply curves in economics.

What I meant by average was you take Crafter A, who crafts whenever he wants to, and Crafter B, who only crafts on what he thinks is his ideal situation. They both only craft said item for HQ.

It's just hard for me to believe that Crafter A's HQ ratio would be equal to Crafter B's HQ ratio, in the long-run (after hundreds of synths).

One might get "luckier" than the other and have a much higher HQ ratio. The question is why? Did conditions have anything @ all to do with said ratio, or was it just that one of the crafters had better "luck" at rolling HQ numbers? We may never really know.

[nitsuj]

We may never really know.

Now I have to say *you* win this thread.

But it's fun to try and figure it out, isn't it?

[Liminality]

Now I have to say *you* win this thread.

But it's fun to try and figure it out, isn't it?

Oh, definitely

[Mistress Stowastiq]

Barring intelligence tests, everyone has the choice whether or not to take the time to learn about the market they are using and their customers/competition as well as all of the factors that come into play as a crafter interested in reduction of costs, profit or other personal gain.

@nitsuj YES it's fun, thank you.

[Zouri]

hmm...
wow...
click and pray method anyone?

also, what was said earlier about my crafts on darksday/ full moon werent 100% accurate.. 2 were on darksday and the gloves were on firesday. Another thing that wasnt pointed out was the fact that 2 of the hq's came shortly or immediately after a failed synth. Also, i had no idea what the moon phase was unil Foxy asked, simply because ive never paid it any attention in the past. Just throwing that out there.

[Liminality]

hmm...
wow...
click and pray method anyone?

also, what was said earlier about my crafts on darksday/ full moon werent 100% accurate.. 2 were on darksday and the gloves were on firesday. Another thing that wasnt pointed out was the fact that 2 of the hq's came shortly or immediately after a failed synth. Also, i had no idea what the moon phase was unil Foxy asked, simply because ive never paid it any attention in the past. Just throwing that out there.

The gloves were on Firesday, you say? Hmmm, that's interesting.

A lot of people have noticed that HQ's follow breaks or closely afterwards, too. Not saying everyone, but I've seen it in a lot of screenshots.

Still congratz on the synths. That still throws me through a loop