The Hyperinflation of 2010

[SephYuyX]

I havent really seen any hardcore discussion about the rapidly decreasing RMT prices. Kill me if there are 3 posts in some random thread about it, but w/e.

Aside from discussion about how to ignore the RMT, I dont think many people are actually looking at the prices lately. Either we gets spammed with messages 50x in an hour, or we have them filtered out with Chatmon.


During the holiday season of 2005 we saw our first hyperinflation where $/gil prices were under $5, and for example saw Hauby go from ~2m in 2004, to ~10m during the season, then reaching near 30m during the peak of inflation, and has since decreased to sub 200k.

Many here today only remember tales of it, most of the old players have left, and those of us who remain have long forgotten it. Some lost huge amounts of gil, and some made extreme wealth from it, however now theres really no sign left of what happened then. In present prices are getting lower and lower, with only a select few rising just because of demand, it's hard to think that such a hyperinflation could happen again.

When considering non inflation pre2005 and post inflation of current, weve never seen such low prices before, 200k for a Hauby would have been unheard of. Is it just because everyone has one now, or has SE measures really worked? A combo of both perhapse, as well as othe factors im sure.


However it seems a pattern is returning again. I would be interested in seeing how many people bought gil before the holiday sale back then, compared to now, but I assume people arent buying very much gil anymore, because most people arent struggling to buy stuff anymore as there are so many ways to make gil, and there are many people out there willing to help others obtain ra/ex versions of items.

Just a couple short months ago, the RMT were selling gil for near $50/m, at the moment it is nearing $15, that is a very fast decline. Either people just arent buying anymore do to reasons above, or the RMT are just trying to dump as much as they can for what they can before everyone quits for XIV. While $50 is way too high for most, $15 is just a months payment of XI, and when that number hits $10 and starts going toward $5, thats game over, thats where the normal everyday joe goes "Hell yeah ill take the easy route", and were most people who swear against ever buying gils starts to rethink and says "Damn.. $5/1m? Thats 20m for just $100.."

After that point what will happen? When gil reaches sub $10, what will happen? Will people keep from buying gil because theyre not having any financial problems? Or will people start buying mass just because they can? If thats the case, what will happen? Will we see another hyperinflation again seeing prices rise 1500%? Will it only increase a bit? Or will prices stay the same and even continue to fall?


Has anyone else given this any thought?

[Mytiwar]

call it wishful thinking, but I don't think what happened during that faithful xmas will ever happen again.

It mainly happened because back then, there was a way to dupe items/gil and some very retarded people got very rich from it and did very retarded things and got whole linkshells banhammered.

The rmt got wind of it and they could sell gil for that low.


Now don't quote me on it if it happens again

[dejet]

Really most players now have a way to make a decent amount of gil. There is little reason to buy gil with what SE has done. Lots and Lots of rare/ex gear and most of the *best* is now cheap as you have pointed out.

I do know the days very well. I lost so much gil. At the time my linkshell gave me 50% of the gil needed to buy my nobles, I took that and used it to buy my nobles for 24mil. About 6 months later the price was hovering around 10mil.

with 14 just around the bend, I see the gil price going down because demand will hit rock bottom now. Why buy for a game that will be slowly losing players day by day, answer no reason.

The AH will stay where it is forever, I would say. There is just to much in the system now.

[dejet]

call it wishful thinking, but I don't think what happened during that faithful xmas will ever happen again.

It mainly happened because back then, there was a way to dupe items/gil and some very retarded people got very rich from it and did very retarded things and got whole linkshells banhammered.

The rmt got wind of it and they could sell gil for that low.


Now don't quote me on it if it happens again

It may seem like that but there have been many ways to dupe gil in the last few years outside the tav glich(most of them got banned for that by the way) Sandworm and so on.

[Mistress Stowastiq]

I think you can also take into consideration the amount of gil confiscated over the years by STF. Since they post it monthly, this can also be compared to other rmt activity like gil buying perhaps, putting more info into the equation.

[Thorny]

It may seem like that but there have been many ways to dupe gil in the last few years outside the tav glich(most of them got banned for that by the way) Sandworm and so on.

RMT doesn't cause inflation. The people who exploited tavnazian safehold didn't keep gil solely for the purpose of having gil, they bought shit. Items were removed with the bans, not gil.. bringing the inflation to higher levels as not only was the gil surplus increasing but the amount of top-tier items available was decreasing. Fucking logic, use it.

[vagus]

The hyper inflation of that Christmas was just before SE started cracking down on fishbots. "Old Money" is rusty fishing money. This was also when gardening was a secret that only a few knew about and the money was insane. 4-8 ores every 5 weeks if u have several mules. Combined with an almost endless amount of gil production and the genius marketing of Christmas, caused the destrution of the economy.

[dejet]

RMT doesn't cause inflation. The people who exploited tavnazian safehold didn't keep gil solely for the purpose of having gil, they bought shit. Items were removed with the bans, not gil.. bringing the inflation to higher levels as not only was the gil surplus increasing but the amount of top-tier items available was decreasing. Fucking logic, use it.

By that logic, when the dupe happened the price of stuff should of went way up. Yet for Imp wootz ingots stand still around 1~1.2mil. SW items that dropped at 3x their normal rate a day still stand.

Fucking logic, use it.

there is no right or wrong here is what it is. It fully depends on everyone. Will find out in the coming months who is right.

Not everyone did the tav dupe, Hell I dont know one person that did it. High end items you say? pick a number any number. How many did it? 1000? 10000? Even if it was that high(and i think not) thats only around 400 per server till they did get banned. Hardly something that would raise the price of everything for almost a year.

I am done fighting, you want to think what you want. My logic is fine, as is yours.

[dejet]

The hyper inflation of that Christmas was just before SE started cracking down on fishbots. "Old Money" is rusty fishing money. This was also when gardening was a secret that only a few knew about and the money was insane. 4-8 ores every 5 weeks if u have several mules. Combined with an almost endless amount of gil production and the genius marketing of Christmas, caused the destrution of the economy.

Big glichs that i knwo of

Mog house glich: Back in JP days Pull the plug dupe the amount of gil
Tav glich:sell shit higher then you bought it for, at this time people had mains with 999mil ~_~
ore glich: If you knew anything at all about gardening you could land almost a 100% ore outcome.
SW/salv:Trip SW or salv gear(also worked in a few other ares almost any "caped zone" in ToAU ares)
Fishing:Rusty's
Gilsellers: owning sky/sea(on some servers),selling rare/ex gear by owning the HNMs,

there must be a few i missed that i do know of. Thats the big ones that might of had an effect.

[Yugl]

Big glichs that i knwo of

Mog house glich: Back in JP days Pull the plug dupe the amount of gil

This is the same as the mailbox (At the AH not the MH) duplication?

[DAKPluto]

Gil right now is actually much higher than it was a few months ago before the gardening update. The inflation didn't hit then, so not gonna hit now.

[dejet]

This is the same as the mailbox (At the AH not the MH) duplication?

Think it could of been done both ways. Its why you auto dc if you do anything in your MH i think.

[Thorny]

By that logic, when the dupe happened the price of stuff should of went way up. Yet for Imp wootz ingots stand still around 1~1.2mil. SW items that dropped at 3x their normal rate a day still stand.

Price should have dropped or stood still, depending on the saturation level of the market. There was a tripled supply, but no change in the amount of gil in the system. There is a maximum people are willing/able to pay for ingots based on the gear itself, leaving the salvage drops out of it.. why do you think so many people have body 35s they haven't finished? The demand for sandworm items is higher than the supply, 1-2 shells per server did this, resulting in at most a 1.5x increase in the total supply over a several month period. The price is fitting and this is not going to saturate the market, so people continued to buy them with no drastic change. Fucking logic, use it.

Not everyone did the tav dupe, Hell I dont know one person that did it. High end items you say? pick a number any number. How many did it? 1000? 10000? Even if it was that high(and i think not) thats only around 400 per server till they did get banned. Hardly something that would raise the price of everything for almost a year.

It introduced new gil to the system, it's not about how many people but how much.. if you have unlimited gil you start to have stupid ideas. Say, offering 300mil for a kraken club because there are very few available and you want one.. for that much, someone is sure to be willing to part with their own(and it doesn't mean shit to you because you have unlimited gil!). Adding 300mil to the market while drastically raising the price for a top tier item has a massive impact on the market, if someone hears about a 300mil kraken sale then the going price will change to 300mil. Other people using the glitch will be able to pay that, most people will not. Every person who uses that glitch and as such has essentially unlimited gil, wants copies of top tier items(speed belt, kraken, thiefs knife, etc).. the items slowly gravitate toward those people while introducing ridiculous amounts of gil into the system. when the bans happen, the false gil is still in the system and the items are removed, making the short-circuited supply permanent and as such increasing demand and allowing the artificial price increases to become real prices. As time passes, more of the items are introduced into the system and gil is distributed by the people who sold those high ticket items when they buy other smaller items. Everything gradually returns to economic equilibrium, with what I'd estimate as well over 3 year's normal gil generation added in the period of a month.. if you really think that's not going to drive up prices, you're a fucking retard.

I am done fighting, you want to think what you want. My logic is fine, as is yours.

Your logic would fail you in a high school economy course, much less any real discussion.

[dejet]

I could care less what you think. You wont get a fight from me.

In 5 months I will fight you and say "I told you so" ok?

Logic you want it? Game has maybe a year of full servers as they are now. With people who, for the most part have a solid way to make gil. As we close in on the final months less people will want to buy gil; why? Easy answer, there is no reason at all to buy for something you wont be playing in 2 months.

Oh its Thorny, the dude who has to fight everyone. You still are around I see. I got a 4 on my AP high school economy class as a FYI.

edit:did not read everything once i saw your name^^

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_IVI5W8Eg3G...320/YouMad.jpg

[Thorny]

I could care less what you think. You wont get a fight from me.

In 5 months I will fight you and say "I told you so" ok?

Logic you want it? Game has maybe a year of full servers as they are now. With people who, for the most part have a solid way to make gil. As we close in on the final months less people will want to buy gil; why? Easy answer, there is no reason at all to buy for something you wont be playing in 2 months.

I said nothing about the current economy or it's patterns, but you're severely misguided regarding the effects of gil sales and the last hyperinflation. If you can't see that you're wrong from reading my last post, there's not really much hope for you..

[dejet]

That glich lasted all of a few days.

How does that lead to a year of Hyperinflation?

Edit: Im done. I can not stand talking to a person who after one post starts to name call. Good luck kid.

[Thorny]

That glich lasted all of a few days.

How does that lead to a year of Hyperinflation?

several years gil, short time period, takes while to dissolve, hurrrrrrrrr

[dejet]

I think the RMT /tells going away is going to raise the price of gil. Less people know, that is what is going to lead to hyperinflation!

Now that would be fail logic! You want it, I gave you it!

[Yugl]

Look what you did OP. You started a fucking retarded argument between these guys. I hope you're happy.

[Corrderio]

I honestly doubt prices will get inflated