The Hyperinflation of 2010

[Xetzu]

have to take into account the % chance of a successful rollback though, both through people's willingness to try for it and SE's willingness to provide it, it's much harder to create a large-scale economic change this late in the game.. the 2005 tav hack honestly could have(and in my opinion probably did) double(d) the amount of currency in circulation though we'll never really know more than speculation on the exact amount

Well I'm not really arguing that the hyperinflation from 2005 will reoccur; but I wouldn't necessary rule out an (incoming) modest amount of inflation due to these recent attacks and successful rollbacks.
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Even without the inflation, the recent attacks have been moderate to severe IMO, and could at least partially account for the lower prices RMT have been offering.

[Thorny]

As I said, I don't think it changes much, and yea, I realize some of those things weren't as big back then, but I'm just saying, in today's economy, I do think your estimate is on the lower end. Not even counting fishers/etc.

Fair enough, I don't merit or ISNM much though so probably just a personal thing. My seals have been rather short-circuited as well due to AB :S

[Starr]

The 2005 inflation happened because RMT had a program duping gil (so SE said in an update) but the same can't happen now because they can't do that.

[Tankjr]

Ah hyperinflation. When it hit I had been playing for less than a year and really thought prices would never drop. I dropped all my loot on anything I could thinking that I'd at least have something to show for my time.

I also thought we'd see another hyperinflation the next year and I'd get 200m for my Osode and just cruise for a while.

Ya >.> I'm not very good at financial forecasting. If another inflation comes down the pipe I'm pretty well prepared for it now. The only problem is that we don't have as much new blood to buy all of our overpriced crap.

[TheMysteriousX]

RMT drop their prices as they get closer to the end of the month and need to shift their stock, or if they have more gil then they can realistically sell at that time.

We're not especially close to the end of the month, so my pet theory is either the phishing is paying off, or there's a new gil "exploit" they've found that hasn't been picked up on yet.

[Kerberoz]

I remember hyperinflation. The game was actually fun, I could make money without farming dirt and saving like a plebeian, people actually bought and sold stuff on the AH, and anyone who wasn't mentally deficient could make gil and afford anything they needed without dedicating over half their game time to it.

2006+ economy sucked ass.

[Virtuous Saint]

I remember hyperinflation. The game was actually fun, I could make money without farming dirt and saving like a plebeian, people actually bought and sold stuff on the AH, and anyone who wasn't mentally deficient could make gil and afford anything they needed without dedicating over half their game time to it.

2006+ economy sucked ass.

Um that would only be true for some people... if inflation happens all items go up in price. A guy that can't make 5m now, probably couldn't make 20m then, but it all depends on how they go about making gil.

[Max™]

You know how the Tav thing worked right?

Talk to the old guy by the bridge, to the left of where your tav ring drops you now, buy a piece of barone gear for say, 1,200,000. Talk to him again, sell it for say, 1,300,000.

How fast could you repeat that?

I'm pretty sure it was a lot more than a 100k difference as well.


Padded caps created gil, Tav created gil, npcing bloods/skins created gil.

Buying drops with that gil is harmless ultimately, the npc did the damage already.

Thorny is absolutely correct.

[ronin sparthos]

I remember hyperinflation. The game was actually fun, I could make money without farming dirt and saving like a plebeian, people actually bought and sold stuff on the AH, and anyone who wasn't mentally deficient could make gil and afford anything they needed without dedicating over half their game time to it.

2006+ economy sucked ass.

How is that any different than today's economy? The only difference today is that prices have scaled down.

That Haubergeon may only be 200k now but it's no different than it being 20m in an economy where a stack of silk thread goes for 50k.

If anything, it is easier to make gil today because money goes so much further. I could do a single instance of Royale Ramble (this KS was not popular before Salvage for sure) and live off the 300k OIngot for weeks of gameplay whereas back in hyperinflation you were forced to farm or run ODS until your eyes bled. You have more options today because back in '06 people gave you weird looks if you didnt conform to the norm (ODS, Steamed Sprouts mainly) but today other instances are SO much easier meaning (job patches, level sync) you have more wiggle room to make gil. (If you can find a group of people that totally aren't fucking retarded in '09s XI)

One of the few fucked up things today are Imp Wootz simply because the supply cannot keep up with the demand because the RMT slave-miners got banned. Players aren't stocking the AH like the RMT would which means the prices goes through the fucking roof.

ANNM was a new source but players haven't taken to it enough meaning we'll continue to see Imp Wootz skyrocket.... well least SE solved the problem with Star Sapphires via ANNM.

[Mojo]

I might as well add my two cents here. I guess I should start by saying that I sorta became an RMT after I quit. I sell accounts and currency on various places to make a little bit of money on the side. It's definitely given me some insight on why gil prices change.

The 2005 hyperinflation has pretty much been covered by people in this thread. There were ways to duplicate gil that were heavily exploited. RMT companies were lowering their prices continuously because they had an infinite supply of gil for a brief period of time. The hyperinflation wasn't a slow process over the course of a year... the bulk of it happened in the period of a month or two. I remember the price of a Scorpion Harness going from 2.5M to 25M in just a few weeks on my server. I remember hearing of a guy who made around $850,000 just from selling gil he duplicated. It would have been nice to be that guy.

There are a few different things happening now that can explain prices of items and the value of gil. People are quitting FFXI and their gil is going right back into the servers. I do watch the number of characters that get listed on RMT websites, it's gone up drastically in the past few months. There are a few reasons why I think this is occurring (poor content over the last year, the announcement of FFXIV, and the game just getting old in general,) although it's happening whether those statements are the accurate or not. It's dropped the price of gil quite considerably, from around $35/M at this time last year to about $18/M now.

The trend in the last few months ($50/M > $18/M) can be explained by something more precise. A few months ago Mogs and Brogame stock mules were banned. They lost a lot of gil and the supply went down considerably. The demand heavily outweighed the supply, so prices shot up more or less overnight. It took a month or so for them to return to the balance that they were at before, but that's where it is now. This actually happens a few times a year, I've seen it more than once.

The prices of individual items can be explained by the way Square Enix designs the game and handles RMT. Items like Scorpion Harness have been decreasing in value because the amount that enter the marketplace heavily outweigh the amount that leave. Everybody that wants one has one. They also introduce items that are better than this, so it causes some negative feedback to the cycle. Scorpion Harness was something like 4.7M way back in the days. That's plummeted to around 200K.

Items like Imperial Wootz Ingot do not fall into this model as easily. They're mostly used for Salvage body upgrades. You can't trade Salvage bodies, so there is no marketplace for them. So you don't have Imperial Wootz Ingots that are re-entering the marketplace. The price reflects how many players are currently trying to upgrade body pieces against how many are put onto the auction house. When Salvage first came out, they were quite cheap because nobody knew shit about Salvage and it was very difficult. Now that Salvage is easier and people are getting more drops than they had, the price has gone up. It shouldn't go up or down too rapidly unless the entire server economy changes or something changes the demand/supply.

The next step is to look at how Square Enix handles RMT. They've been heavy handed with the banhammer since 2005. You can easily observe this here (select all time if it's not selected already.) There has been regular deflation that seems to be converging to a steady state. The processes on the prices of items I just described are worsened by it. Steady inflation would actually dampen the affect. This turns out to be very bad for the typical player because the ways typical players make gil usually fall into the Scorpion Harness model. You're left with an economy that causes items players want (Salvage gear) to slowly become more difficult to obtain.

I guess I might have wandered off topic here. As far as a future inflation goes. I don't think it's possible to happen to that degree unless some new exploit is discovered. The price of gil is probably going to continue to drop although I don't think it will ever breech the $10-12/M point, although maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part.

[ringthree]

Has anyone considered that the other factor in a reduction in price is decreased demand?

[Mojo]

It's hard to gauge demand for gil. With the way gil prices have been dropping, the more it does the more people want to buy it but the less people are buying it. I'm sure some RMT companies might have solid numbers for that but it's a hard call otherwise.

[Aidin]

Ah yes, the good ole days of Xmas 2005

250,000,000/week without duping.


I miss your Kclubs Lord of Onzozo

[Trocian]

Speaking of duping...

How did the Salvage-dupe-thingy actually work?

I was on a break from the game when it happened, so I have no idea how it was discovered or worked.

[drwaffles]

Speaking of duping...

How did the Salvage-dupe-thingy actually work?

I was on a break from the game when it happened, so I have no idea how it was discovered or worked.

If you broke up your alliance before opening the first door then each party had their own separate treasure pool into which any items dropped would appear as normal. It was as simple as that, no complex trickery involved.

[Mizango]

Man that gil explosion was fucking win. You basically knew who bought gil and who didn't during that time. There was nothing like seeing players with 21 cooking and 0 everything else dropping 50 Mil on items and swearing they made it making kabobs and croutons.

Man I was still on Pandemonium at the time and I remember this joke of a player named Cloudlyon bought the HQ set of Adaman for his 26 Whm. When he realized that WHM couldn't equip it he was frantically trying to sell it via shout because he didn't have the money to put it back up on the AH. This was back when posting a 30 mil item would cost you like 3 mil to put it back up, oh man that Christmas was fucking epic.

Good times, good times.

[Cadsuane]

Inflation was from fishbot scams which predominantly meant rusty caps; we can drop this "many factors" vacillating. This should be abundantly clear to anyone who remembers rabao or light cluster prices in 2006. Gil got stockpiled, RMT dumped billions on the market at christmas time, added to the fact that everybody was filthy rich anyway means your SH is worth 20 mil. Fishing/gardening/any method of getting significant amounts of NPC generated money is dead, which means there's no danger of inflation and RMT prices probably just reflect the fact that nobody gives a fuck about buying gil or accounts anymore.

This thread happens every goddamn year too.

[Thiefami]

Man that gil explosion was fucking win. You basically knew who bought gil and who didn't during that time. There was nothing like seeing players with 21 cooking and 0 everything else dropping 50 Mil on items and swearing they made it making kabobs and croutons.

Man I was still on Pandemonium at the time and I remember this joke of a player named Cloudlyon bought the HQ set of Adaman for his 26 Whm. When he realized that WHM couldn't equip it he was frantically trying to sell it via shout because he didn't have the money to put it back up on the AH. This was back when posting a 30 mil item would cost you like 3 mil to put it back up, oh man that Christmas was fucking epic.

Good times, good times.

lol ain't that it... people paying me and 3 other summoners 2mil each for fenrir, and didnt even have a job above level 50. At that point I just stopped caring ..free money was just that, and that's how i survived the hyperinflation

[Thorny]

Inflation was from fishbot scams which predominantly meant rusty caps; we can drop this "many factors" vacillating. This should be abundantly clear to anyone who remembers rabao or light cluster prices in 2006. Gil got stockpiled, RMT dumped billions on the market at christmas time, added to the fact that everybody was filthy rich anyway means your SH is worth 20 mil. Fishing/gardening/any method of getting significant amounts of NPC generated money is dead, which means there's no danger of inflation and RMT prices probably just reflect the fact that nobody gives a fuck about buying gil or accounts anymore.

This thread happens every goddamn year too.

If you think padded caps came anywhere near tavnazian safehold in terms of gil generated, you're badly mistaken.

[Cadsuane]

If you think padded caps came anywhere near tavnazian safehold in terms of gil generated, you're badly mistaken.

All I know is everyone I knew at that time including myself were either fishing up caps or raising smithing high enough to be able to, and rabao was almost as busy as lower jeuno. The tav glitch came and went without it being widely known about, and the dudes who did it got banned. If you've got evidence to persuade me I'd like to hear it.