The Hyperinflation of 2010

[Dezzimal]

Is it just because everyone has one now, or has SE measures really worked?

This is exactly the reason a hauby is priced so low, there is no market for NQs, and a decent market for HQs. How do you get a HQ? Spam the recipe and likely end up with a million NQs you need to offload. Would I be wrong in guessing that an NQ hauby might actually go for less than a damascus ingot?

[Argettio]

Dusk gloves have been selling for just 100k recently on Kujata (although they have picked up in the last 2 days).

Until 6 months ago we had one of the cheapest servers (according to FFXIAH CPI), then over the summer we spiked to 2-3rd highest in the list and now its like prices have dropped off a cliff.

Final Fantasy XI Auction House - FFXIAH.com

Looking at that, the economy is very cyclic; 'booming' and 'busting' every 4-6 months. The worrying thing is the height of the spikes (up and down) are getting more extreme.

Which will lead to more people buying gil (as items increase in price drastically during peak times).

I doubt we will get hyperinflation again, as there aren't enough people chasing after the same 'normal' items. Partly due to the over all player population being smaller than the last timer. Also partly due to the player population all being more mature (in ages, not attitude), so have a lot more of the normal AH items (every one has a hauby in their MH 'just in case these' days).

[Mizango]

I am not making an argument based on semantics.

OH SNAP1

[Mojo]

Those booms and busts on the big graph almost directly correlate to when they ban RMT mules. The economy enters a period of inflation again and then depresses when Square Enix issues a massive banning.

[Thorny]

But padded caps were there before CoP was released. Remember Rabao being full of people with nobody actually being there? Everyone and their mother fishbotted the hell out of that.

The Safehold exploit was fixed pretty fast, but fishbots were going on for years.

On the original topic: I've never seen more than 2000 people online on Odin in the last couple of weeks (ok, I'm in the EU timezone, but still, half a year ago, it was always 3000+ with 6000 tops). Reduction of demand.

/edit:

Introduction of Sushi was a huge money sink. ~3k straight to the NPC for Ground Wasabi and other ingredients only available at NPC vendors. IIRC, introduction of sushi was after the great inflation.

Crafting bots. Did you ever try outcrafting RMT on high-throughput consumables (Meat Mithkabob, Shihei)? They even sold at a loss just to drive you away and then raised prices again. While this doesn't remove/create money from the game, it still moves money to the RMTs stockpiles making their offers cheaper.

Padded caps were still limitted though. If you could make a cap every minute or ~700k/hr(which seems high), it'd take in the range of 100+ hours to equal one hour of tavnazian safehold gil(assuming a resale takes 5 seconds which is about fair, if you mass buy then mass resell).

[Argettio]

Those booms and busts on the big graph almost directly correlate to when they ban RMT mules. The economy enters a period of inflation again and then depresses when Square Enix issues a massive banning.

They do, but that doesn't change the overal effect; during inflation period people feel poor, buy gill, increasing the inflation to a new high.

[Kaibelf]

playing devil's advocate for a minute, a dumb friend once said this about buying gold in WoW for an epic mount: "it is either an investment of time or an investment of money, i'd rather pay the money now and have the time to enjoy it, than grind though all that shit at what amounts to $2 an hour worth of gold if sold and i still might not get the item."

to him, it was the $$ cost of the gold upfront vs how much gold he'd make by farming it and how much money/time invested he'd "lose" by grinding it out instead.

Then why does he play at all? MMOs by nature ask you for a time investment. Perhaps this friend would be better off playing something more geared toward the instant-gratification crowd, since his laziness has a ripple effect on everyone else.

[Kyreth]

Those booms and busts on the big graph almost directly correlate to when they ban RMT mules. The economy enters a period of inflation again and then depresses when Square Enix issues a massive banning.

And honestly, the economy benefits from stability more than inflation. It's a big neon sign to exactly how close we are to another inflation binge courtesy of RMT's- and the fact that the only thing keeping us from another price-manipulating, gil-producing blowout is liberal use of the banhammers.

I'd delight in seeing the big names in RMT get lawyered into the ground. The day that happens, it'll be the biggest quality of life patch FFXI's had in a long time.

[Kyreth]

Padded caps were still limitted though. If you could make a cap every minute or ~700k/hr(which seems high), it'd take in the range of 100+ hours to equal one hour of tavnazian safehold gil(assuming a resale takes 5 seconds which is about fair, if you mass buy then mass resell).

Of course, rusty caps weren't just Rabao- and they went nuts on fishing em out and making them into padded caps for sale.

Fishing rusties takes 0 fishing skill. Park a bunch of fishbots at Rabao worked. So did parking them inside the mine near Sandy. Used to see fishbots warp from the mine to right outside Sandy, hand off their loot to a crafter who'd zap em all and sell, then wait behind a shop for the next batch. He'd be desynthing silver rings, too.

Silver got real cheap at the Sandy AH for that reason...he'd literally be producing 10+ stacks of silver a day, minimum, light crystals were not to be had, and lightning crystals went like candy as well.

Since I did my lower levels of smithing off rusties (and got my silver for JC much the same way, though it was by sitting there fishing), I know how it went- since I'd literally Warp clear when I saw one of the fishbots leaving, and the level 1 fishbot -would beat me to San d'Oria every fucking time-.

[Mojo]

I'd like you to explain to me how exactly 'economic stability' benefits the economy. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here, but from what I've observed it's actually quite the opposite. Slight inflation is good, etc. etc.

[ringthree]

I'd like you to explain to me how exactly 'economic stability' benefits the economy. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here, but from what I've observed it's actually quite the opposite. Slight inflation is good, etc. etc.

Slight and regular inflation is part of economic stability. Radical swings of inflation and deflation is not economic stability.

[Mojo]

...and how does that differ than anything I've said? You seem to have misunderstood what I meant when I wrote 'economic stability.' I was referring to an economic state where there is no inflation or deflation (what the previous poster was also referencing...) In the case of FFXI, there is generally slow inflation until Square Enix goes and bans another batch of RMT (at which point the economy depresses.)

[Bugpop]

OH SNAP1

wut?

Then why does he play at all? MMOs by nature ask you for a time investment. Perhaps this friend would be better off playing something more geared toward the instant-gratification crowd, since his laziness has a ripple effect on everyone else.

My brother plays video games with cheat devices all the time. I can't see how he enjoys playing the games. People want to play FFXI and get easy gil. Since there is a service for easy gil then... dude come on... you can't expect me to believe that you will tolerate people wearing sub-par gear in your party. I don't know anyone who will kick a party member just because they might buy their gil. They will always get the benefit of the doubt. The jackass who is wearing full AF1 is more likely to get replaced without notice.

And honestly, the economy benefits from stability more than inflation. It's a big neon sign to exactly how close we are to another inflation binge courtesy of RMT's- and the fact that the only thing keeping us from another price-manipulating, gil-producing blowout is liberal use of the banhammers.


I'd delight in seeing the big names in RMT get lawyered into the ground. The day that happens, it'll be the biggest quality of life patch FFXI's had in a long time.

IRL a certain measure of inflation is expected and is a sign of a growing economy. It's considered by many to be better than stagflation or deflation. Deflation may be good for other people. I don't know how a stagnant economy can be considered good.

The reason why SE maintains the right to ban anyone for any reason or no reason at all at any time is because they don't want to mess with copyright infringement claims against RMT. If the courts make a ruling, then it will likely rule whether virtual assets will have value, or no value. If virtual currency has value the part of the EULA regarding ownership of virtual assets may be deemed unconscionable because the playes work and effort accumulated the virtual assets, not SE. A ruling will likely make virtual assets the property of each account, and SE may be more accountable for account security. If virtual assets have no value then there is no consideration for virtual assets and no legal contracts of sale. Then you have RMT legitamately claiming to find accounts willing to give other accounts virtual goods for a fee. There is never a sale, and virtual assets are never claimed to belong to any entity other than SE.

Really, it's better for SE to ban everyone they think is RMT and sort it out later instead of taking RMT to court.

[ringthree]

...and how does that differ than anything I've said? You seem to have misunderstood what I meant when I wrote 'economic stability.' I was referring to an economic state where there is no inflation or deflation (what the previous poster was also referencing...) In the case of FFXI, there is generally slow inflation until Square Enix goes and bans another batch of RMT (at which point the economy depresses.)

I am just speaking in definitions outside of the FFXI context. Stability just means not big swings. I think a better term to use would be equilibrium. Bugpop's description of IRL economic conditions is correct.

[ringthree]

The reason why SE maintains the right to ban anyone for any reason or no reason at all at any time is because they don't want to mess with copyright infringement claims against RMT. If the courts make a ruling, then it will likely rule whether virtual assets will have value, or no value. If virtual currency has value the part of the EULA regarding ownership of virtual assets may be deemed unconscionable because the playes work and effort accumulated the virtual assets, not SE. A ruling will likely make virtual assets the property of each account, and SE may be more accountable for account security. If virtual assets have no value then there is no consideration for virtual assets and no legal contracts of sale. Then you have RMT legitamately claiming to find accounts willing to give other accounts virtual goods for a fee. There is never a sale, and virtual assets are never claimed to belong to any entity other than SE.

Really, it's better for SE to ban everyone they think is RMT and sort it out later instead of taking RMT to court.

I disagree with your assessment because that is not really how intellectual property and copyright law works. The real reason there haven't been many cases is that the RMT locate themselves outside the jurisdiction of current international agreements to protect intellectual property. The reason that RMT flourishes in China isn't because the Chinese have figured out the secret to RMT success.

[Vodou]

If the courts make a ruling, then it will likely rule whether virtual assets will have value, or no value. If virtual currency has value the part of the EULA regarding ownership of virtual assets may be deemed unconscionable because the playes work and effort accumulated the virtual assets, not SE. A ruling will likely make virtual assets the property of each account, and SE may be more accountable for account security. If virtual assets have no value then there is no consideration for virtual assets and no legal contracts of sale. Then you have RMT legitamately claiming to find accounts willing to give other accounts virtual goods for a fee. There is never a sale, and virtual assets are never claimed to belong to any entity other than SE.

I think your arguments here are fairly flawed.

1) Whether accounts have value or not is not a legal issue. You can contract to sell something that has no apparent value and then if you refuse to sell it, can lose in court for breach of contract. The courts do not have to concern themselves with value UNLESS they are concerned with compensation for breach.

2) I think you are confusing renters rights with owners rights. Renting a property (using the most common contract terms used in rental agreements) gives renters no rights to the property. They only have a right of use within the terms of the contract. If a renter paints his apartment walls with valuable portraits or a person renting land discovers oil, the renters have no claim on the walls or the oil if the agreements do not give them those rights. Regardless of the value of the work the renter put in to the effort, the property was not theirs and they have no claim.

3) You seem to provide what are called squatters rights to renters. In short, because they are there and have done things, some how they have obtained property rights. This concept has lost when tested. The reason for the term squatter's rights is in fact to differentiate this manner of acquiring property from normal disputes of renters. Clearly, squatters rights are not applicable in the case of FFXI.

4) SE has provided no ambiguity over the players' rights within the game. They have enforced these rights and repeated them and required players' to accept the terms with no room for confusion. Players have all agreed that the accounts and everything within the game is not theirs, can never be theirs and is owned 100% by SE. Nothing that players do within the game can change this.

I think the legal road you are on is simply wrong. The very fact that SE has removed over 1 trillion gil and over 50,000 accounts and not lost a case in court should be ample proof that no one disputes these issues. SE does not have to go to court to prove they can do this legally. Not only do the laws support them, but the people who have lost the accounts agree.

[Mistress Stowastiq]

I think your arguments here are fairly flawed.

1) Whether accounts have value or not is not a legal issue. You can contract to sell something that has no apparent value and then if you refuse to sell it, can lose in court for breach of contract. The courts do not have to concern themselves with value UNLESS they are concerned with compensation for breach.

2) I think you are confusing renters rights with owners rights. Renting a property (using the most common contract terms used in rental agreements) gives renters no rights to the property. They only have a right of use within the terms of the contract. If a renter paints his apartment walls with valuable portraits or a person renting land discovers oil, the renters have no claim on the walls or the oil if the agreements do not give them those rights. Regardless of the value of the work the renter put in to the effort, the property was not theirs and they have no claim.

3) You seem to provide what are called squatters rights to renters. In short, because they are there and have done things, some how they have obtained property rights. This concept has lost when tested. The reason for the term squatter's rights is in fact to differentiate this manner of acquiring property from normal disputes of renters. Clearly, squatters rights are not applicable in the case of FFXI.

4) SE has provided no ambiguity over the players' rights within the game. They have enforced these rights and repeated them and required players' to accept the terms with no room for confusion. Players have all agreed that the accounts and everything within the game is not theirs, can never be theirs and is owned 100% by SE. Nothing that players do within the game can change this.

I think the legal road you are on is simply wrong. The very fact that SE has removed over 1 trillion gil and over 50,000 accounts and not lost a case in court should be ample proof that no one disputes these issues. SE does not have to go to court to prove they can do this legally. Not only do the laws support them, but the people who have lost the accounts agree.

^
Thank you for explaining this in such a concise way.

I also wanted to point out that SE has pursued and won previous copyright infringement law suits. This quote is from their NA site's press release page, where details and updates on their active intellectual property and copyright infringement law suits can be found.

“We are actively pursuing those who commit intellectual property infringement against our company,” said Yasuhiko Hasegawa, Square Enix’s General Counsel. “In parallel with our campaign against the manufacturing, distribution and sale of counterfeits, we will continue to aggressively exercise our intellectual property rights, including the filing of lawsuits, to prevent any infringement of our rights involving the unauthorized use of our games, music, movies, images, and other elements protected by intellectual property law.”

[Bugpop]

My arguments aren't the greatest but I am trying to explain why I have my opinion. The case I hear is that the EULA and Copyright laws protect the IP against RMT. My argument was that RMT does not violate copyrights. I haven't heard anyone really explain how copyrights and the EULA were legally enforcable [as an argument against rmt]. The best explanation so far "they have a right to do anything we can’t stop them from doing" -- a quote from Catch-22 defining a catch-22. Since I failed to express what I have read and understood with my own words, I'll share some of the articles I have read which had basis for my opinion.

It took me forever to find the articles since it's been a while since I read them. The first pdf is a long one. I couldn't find a better site for the second article... it isn't formatted well. Now these don't reflect any actual rulings, these offer expert opinions on current law that have been published in legal journals. I am not an attorney nor am I studying to become one, I just pick things up here and there and learn interesting things.

I think the articles are interesting. They don't come across as pro- or anti- rmt. The PDF points out court cases that establish some precedence. Both point out the gaping holes in the claims of MMO's and the law regarding virtual ownership. They also point out areas where legal definitions need to be made.

Trading in-game items offline for cash, as such, does not constitute a violation of copyrights of MMORPG developers or publishers, as this action does not involve copying and transferring of item codes or graphics toward an external destination. To begin with, the transfer of items between ingame characters would not be possible at all, if the game was not programmed to enable it. A developer/ publisher has no ground to allege a copyright violation, since no copyright law is broken. In sum, copyright laws have no direct relationship to RMT.

Real Money Trading in MMORPG items from a Legal and Policy Perspective
Ung-gi Yoon
SSRN-Real Money Trading in MMORPG items from a Legal and Policy Perspective by Ung-gi Yoon

Molly Stephens, “Sales of In-Game Assets: An Illustration of The Continuing Failure of Intellectual Property Law to Protect Digital-Content Creators,”
Sales of in-game assets: An illustration of the continuing failure of intellectual property law to protect digial-content creators | Software Services & Applications (301) from AllBusiness.com

[Kyreth]

My thoughts on the capacity for -access- to content provided to users, as far as RMT "law" is concerned.

That is, if a company says that a third party cannot exchange real-life currency for access to content, is this enforceable in a court of law? Are third-party alterations to that access via programs not part of the contract for access between user and provider illegal as well? Do both of this fall under giving access to content in a form proscribed by the agreement between users and provider, and if it's broken can the provider seek legal redress?

Heck, if S-E can track Gil being generated via violations of the ToS, and someone buys that Gil and uses it- is that not making them just as guilty? You've just "hired" someone else to break the rules for you by giving them money for the results- the RMT are the "hitman", and you're the ones paying them to do the job of getting you the dirty money. Gil is a form of access to the game- folks remember when RMT's could casually blow the Gil on buying airship licenses for mules?

How much legal impact the second part has depends on what they rule RMT meddling (the first part) qualifies as under law. The "Glider" suit Blizzard won isn't a perfect kill as far as MMORPG's are concerned, but it does set a chilling precedent.

[Kaibelf]

My brother plays video games with cheat devices all the time. I can't see how he enjoys playing the games. People want to play FFXI and get easy gil. Since there is a service for easy gil then... dude come on... you can't expect me to believe that you will tolerate people wearing sub-par gear in your party. I don't know anyone who will kick a party member just because they might buy their gil. They will always get the benefit of the doubt. The jackass who is wearing full AF1 is more likely to get replaced without notice.

I guess we have different priorities. I absolutely (and everyone on Alexander knows this) hate people who RMT to get things, and that's been well-known for years now. In my parties, I try my very best at all times to get people who at least know what they are doing, and if their gear isn't top of the line, so what? What do I lose? 1/k an hour in a meripo, if that? There are two different types of people: the ones who win the lottery, and the ones who work their way to riches. Who do you respect more? All the fabulous gear in the world, in the end, doesn't mask a subpar player who's also an asshole (yes, Gandolf, Bcb, Dbd, I'm looking at you polished turds).

Ironically, the people who have some of this great gear are often the same retards who have incomplete sets of maps, jack shit done for quests, or don't even have an allegiance to attend campaign battles. I run with players with heart and determination rather than lazy fucks who obsess about fake outfits and think that it makes them into a true gamer, then stand around in whitegate to model it, or jerk themselves off to their parser. Just my 2cents.