Random Crafting Question Thread I: HQ secret cracked!

[Buffy]

Why do you have 92 serica cloth anyway >.>?

I was gonna skillup clothcraft to 110, but I'm willing to sell them to fund a WHM mythic. Plus, when they added Delve, they completely FUCKED the motivation to do Prov Watcher, so I can't get any more to skillup, so I'm waiting on Bztvarian wings or w/e to become more common. If I don't find someone willing to pay 2m per, I'mma just sit on them.

Buffycloth is my 106 cloth account.

[noodles355]

What an original mule name!

[Jimothy]

For synergy recipes like Iridal Staff, which has 10 light and 20 dark, if you overshoot on them are you just fucked and need to start over? Can't really tweak them down like other elements since it'l put the other element way over.

[Buffy]

Yep.

[Taint]

What did you skill on for Bonecraft over lvl 42? I would prefer to throw gil at it, but materials are limited and don't stack.

Seems like the ram horn synths are the way to go, did you just farm them? Bone is such a pain in the ass IMO

[Shadida]

Bone's really not so bad. It's been a long time, but I seem to recall horn items being the way to go. I skilled it up back when Ram Horns were in constant supply on the AH though - farming is probably your best bet. At least now you have Abyssea - La Theine to kill rams nonstop.

[Taint]

Bone's really not so bad. It's been a long time, but I seem to recall horn items being the way to go. I skilled it up back when Ram Horns were in constant supply on the AH though - farming is probably your best bet. At least now you have Abyssea - La Theine to kill rams nonstop.

Nice call! I was dreading running around LaTheine chasing the RAMs like I was doing Kannagi trials again. (outside)

[dasva]

If your server is like mine there is almost always a ton of crab shells up so you can do carapace mask to 45 as well. Then to scorp arrowheads after you buy out ram horns lol if you don't feel like farming

[crux]

Just for fun I wanted to do the math for that probability topic two days ago. The topic was locked, so I'm bringing it here, in case Robitussin strolls in.

The debate was whether 100 tries with a tier 0 craft would "almost guarantee" a HQ or not, or even whether 200 tries with a tier 0 craft would "almost guarantee" a HQ. Under the assumption that the chances of an HQ with tier 0 skill is exactly 1% (unlikely, the way fractions are handled in FFXI, but it's simple so I'll go with it), I'll work out the probability that no HQ is ever made. For n crafts, the probability is 99/100 to the nth power. Since we're looking for an "almost guarantee" that a HQ is made, we will assume that "almost guarantee" is 99%, or 1/100 for its inverse. Assuming all that, we get:

99/100^n = 1/100
A logarithm is the inverse of that pesky exponential, so after taking the log to this equation, I get 458.2.

So, random failure at probability who will probably never read this and I'm wasting my time, it would take 459 crafting attempts to "almost guarantee" a tier 0 HQ. And even then it's not guaranteed (as it's a 1% chance every attempt, no matter what).

And since I went this far, there's roughly a 63.4% chance of synthing a HQ over 100 attempts assuming a 1% rate of success, and roughly a 86.6% chance with 200 attempts.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t_GiXrg7QE...s1600/tmyk.gif

[Byrthnoth]

It is worth noting that you are talking about the probability of making at least one hq. Obviously the occurrences of a 1% event in 100 samples is 1 on average.

[crux]

Yes, thanks, Byrth.

[Buffy]

This is why math and I don't get along.

Money isn't math for the record, I do money just fine

[cdgreg]

I oversimplify this, but for my own sanity I subscribe to the 1/64, 1/16, 1/4, 1/2 belief. Furthermore the break rate of 5% per craft when over the cap based on http://www.bluegartr.com/threads/571...tion-read-this!

This is of course before foods/gear that definitely have an impact.

Since the majority of my crafting for profit falls within single craft T1s my oversimplified mindset is every time I click OK a 16 side dice is rolled: 1 = HQ, 2 = break, 3-16 = NQ. By no means is this mathematically perfect, but it keeps me sane and out of the gambler's fallacy realm.

Last but not least, the best advice I ever read was the only way to HQ more is to craft more. Notice it doesn't say the only way to increase your HQ rate....but rather HQ MORE...

[Classikmage]

For synergy recipes like Iridal Staff, which has 10 light and 20 dark, if you overshoot on them are you just fucked and need to start over? Can't really tweak them down like other elements since it'l put the other element way over.

Yeah, but, with that synth it shouldn't really matter, there is no NQ/HQ for the individual synths. 8 NQ staves make an Iridial, 8 HQ staves make a Chatoyant. Tweaking them perfectly only really matter if you need to HQ the synth.

[Hitou]

If the numbers aren't near perfect for that synergy it will likely fail, and even when they are it might. I've done that stupid staff enough times to know.

[dasva]

It's been awhile but iirc I always succeed if I was within 3 for a particular element and within 10 total

[Hitou]

Yeah usually. I've had a few blow up despite being within 3 or less with a few perfectly aligned though. Craps random.

[Jimothy]

Yeah, the issue wasn't with getting perfect alignment, just getting unlucky and overshooting dark to the point I couldn't even finish and having to start over. I've had much more success by actually using the safety lever and preventing explosions compared to my usual tactic of spamming fewell until complete.

[Squah]

Anyone know the exact smithing sublevel required for damascus bullets?

[Jimothy]

Can't give you exact but I can make them with 60 smithing.