Registered Sex Offenders

[Darus Grey]

Based on the link you provided, it clearly does.

1994 was the beginning of the sex offender registration program for most of the country (Jacob Wetterling Act) followed by Megan's Law in 1996.

According to your link, the forcible rape rate between 1986 (earliest the table goes) and 1994 (beginning of national sex offender registry) hovered between about 38-42. After 1994, it takes a sharp decline, going down each and every year from 39.3 down to 31.8 in 2001. Between 2001 and 2005 (latest the table goes), it hovered between about 31-33.

What about that table was supposed to suggest the sex offender list doesn't work?

True, there may be other reasons for the decline in forcible rape, but it certainly doesn't prove "it doesn't fucking work".

Correlation vs Causation. If you'll remember, mid 90s is also when DNA as evidence went into full swing after having started in the late 80s. I imagine that actually being able to get convicted outside of being caught in the act, was the much larger deterrent.

I assume seno was referencing that the actual number of rapes didn't go down, and actually peaked in the mid 90s. Even if the rate changed.

[Demosthenes11]

arguing number and not percentage does nothing.

India has the 6th? most prisoners in the world, but only around 33 prisoners per 100k people. The other 9 in the top ten average around 150 prisoners per 100k people. It's really not the same

[Khamsin]

Correlation vs Causation. If you'll remember, mid 90s is also when DNA as evidence went into full swing after having started in the late 80s. I imagine that actually being able to get convicted outside of being caught in the act, was the much larger deterrent.

I assume seno was referencing that the actual number of rapes didn't go down, and actually peaked in the mid 90s. Even if the rate changed.

I'll admit it's hard to say what actually caused the decline, but I still don't get how the table in any way shows "it doesn't fucking work".

I would think the rate would be the most important number, given population inflation over the years. There's a lot more people in the world now than in the 1980s.