Zanshin proc rate and accuracy bonus

[Motenten]

Rerunning the test.

For validation:

Taru 75 Thf/War
1 dagger merit, 271 total dagger skill
72 Dex

Gear:
Ceremonial Dagger
Tariqah (+4 acc)
Tiphia Sting (+2 acc)
Wahlara Turban
Spike Necklace (+3 dex)
Brutal Earring
Raparee Harness
Homam Manopolas (+4 acc)
Ulthalam's Ring (+4 acc)
Woodsman Ring (+5 acc)
Steppe Rope (-4 Str to be certain of fStr)
Homam Cosciales (+3 acc)
Homam Gambieras (+6 acc)
All other gear slots empty

Should be:
200 + (71*.9) + (75/2) + (4+2+4+4+5+3+6) = 200 + 63 + 37 + 28 = 328 acc

vs Lvl 75 Om'hpemde -- Low evasion at 307 accuracy

+21 accuracy above that point should give one of the following:

If Low Evasion = 80% and Hit Rate is floored, 328 acc should be 90%
If Low Evasion = 80% and Hit Rate is not floored, 328 acc should be 90.5%
If Low Evasion = 80.5%, 328 acc should be 91% (flooring not determined)


Current numbers:
hit/miss = hit/total
28405/3116 = 28405/31521
Hit rate = 90.11%; CI = 0.33%; potential range = 89.78% to 90.44%

Fully refutes Low Evasion = 80.5%.

From the wiki wording: "If a monster checks as low evasion, you have a greater than 80% chance to hit it." That's incorrect. It should be "If a monster checks as low evasion, you have at least an 80% chance to hit it." The secondary statement of >= 10 is correct.

Appears to confirm the idea of floored hit rates. 90.5% is outside the current 95% confidence interval range, and is only barely within the 99% CI range (which has an upper limit of 90.54%).


So, using that information on the earlier test:

Pld/Sam, 234 total acc

Repredicted hit rate: 297 - 234 = 63 ==> 75% - 31.5% = 43.5% floored to 43%

Parsed hit rate for first swings: 8144/19023 = 42.8% with 0.7% CI. Closely matches predicted rate of 43%, so using that as the base.

Zanshin swings: 2771
Zanshin hit rate: 1638/2771 = 59.1% with 1.83% CI. Bonus range of 57.28% to 60.94%, or +28 to +35 acc.

However... Is the Zanshin accuracy bonus added before or after the hit rate is floored? If it adds to the hit rate after its calculation rather than to your accuracy, the last 0.5% gain would always be lost, yielding instead an effective +34 acc, or +17% hit rate.

If that is the case, then the expected hit rate would be 60% instead of 60.5%, which is notably closer to the parsed value.

If it added to the base accuracy and you're in a situation such as here where the base hit rate before flooring is already a .5, the overall hit rate gain should be 18%, and the parse numbers can't support something that high.


Looking at the prior tests:

Sam main @ 50% first round hit rate had a 66.67 % second round hit rate. That's very close to a +17% increase in hit rate (-0.33%), with a 1.23% CI.

Sam main @ 65% first round hit rate had a 82.72 % second round hit rate. Again, that's very close to a +17% increase in hit rate (+0.72%), with a 1.25% CI.


Final conclusion, that I am far more confident in:

1) Zanshin proc rate at 75 Sam is 45%
2) Zanshin proc rate for subbed or 37 Sam is 25% *
3) Zanshin provides a hit rate bonus of 17%, -after- initial floored hit rate is calculated; alternatively, it provides a +34 accuracy bonus that is itself floored.

* There were some bits that I've read that indicated that the jp believe the Zanshin trait to progress in tiers, at levels 20, 35, 50 and 65; for now I assume that the corresponding proc rates are likely 15%, 25%, 35% and 45%, and depend on the level of the trait, not main/subjob variances like Meditate.

Interestingly, this also matches up with recent tests of the accuracy bonus provided by smn relic pants. The bonus ended up being +14 acc rather than the 'round' +15 I would have assumed. With the hit rate flooring it looks like is has the same issue as Zanshin, so ended up with the even number bonus.

[Byrthnoth]

It could be +34 Acc across sub and main, or it could be +35 for SAM main and +30 for SAM sub. +35 or +34 seems pretty "right" for SAM main, but +35 is excluded from the 95% confidence interval for your 43(.5)% PLD/SAM parse. We'd have expected 61%, which is slightly outside the range. Could still be true, just happens to be outside of the particular sampling.

I'm willing to accept that it's +34 for /SAM and SAM/.

It's possible that "Enhances Accuracy" actually just adds hit rate. So SMN pants would add 7% Hit rate, this would add 17% Hit rate. It isn't like we can use /check to prove it it's Acc, and as long as it's an even number we can't even use the flooring to tell.

[Amok]

nvm... why can't I delete