Yet another thread about rampart theories

[yunie]

This was probably covered before, but I noticed something odd yesterday during our Bhaflau run.

We were doing MB rampart, and we were killing the chigoes quick enough so there were never more than 1 chigoe out. I noticed that the chigoe that popped was always the same chigoe (I NPC name changed all 5 chigoes), so I decided to test something. At about 8%, I had our group sleep the first 4 chigoes and only kill the 5th chigoe. BAM, out comes a gate widow at 7%.

I always thought if NM doesn't pop during first 50% chances are it won't pop at all, but it seems that's not true.

Is it possible that only one of the 5 is a true placeholder randomly chosen every run?

[Hogie]

This was probably covered before, but I noticed something odd yesterday during our Bhaflau run.

We were doing MB rampart, and we were killing the chigoes quick enough so there were never more than 1 chigoe out. I noticed that the chigoe that popped was always the same chigoe (I NPC name changed all 5 chigoes), so I decided to test something. At about 8%, I had our group sleep the first 4 chigoes and only kill the 5th chigoe. BAM, out comes a gate widow at 7%.

I always thought if NM doesn't pop during first 50% chances are it won't pop at all, but it seems that's not true.

Is it possible that only one of the 5 is a true placeholder randomly chosen every run?

Only way you can honestly test that would be if you had different dats for all the chigoes and then let 5 pop, blow them all away and wait for anther 5 and so on. If you get a different dat in the bunch you may see there is a PH but I HIGHLY doubt that will be the case.


Can you confirm if when you were holding the 4 if there was any different dats or were they all the same?

[yunie]

I changed dats on all 5.

Let's say I changed their names to Chigoe #1, Chigoe #2, Chigoe #3, Chigoe #4. Our group killed Chigoe #5 only and we got 1 NM to pop during last 10%

[yunie]

This is my personal theory, based on experience with NO test data to back it up:

1) There is one PH that can pop the NM.
2) PH can pop after NM pops.
3) There's a 5% chance the PH will pop the NM.

What does this mean?

1) Groups will typically see 3 to 8 NMs if PH is the #1 or #2 mob on a good day.
2) Groups that rape mobs as soon as they pop will have no chance at seeing NM if PH is one of the last mobs.

This is just my personal theory and how I see it. It seems to make sense to me.

[Byrthnoth]

My group talked about something similar to this in the past, but we never changed our monster names to test it. I don't know. Easiest way to see if this is correct is to keep doing Ramparts runs.

[Kipling]

I don't know, normally my group does not have any mobs up at all (Besides the one that just popped, I mean.) and we seem to get NM's to pop as they should. (Rarely, but when they do there's usually a few.) The only time we have 2 or even 3 mobs up are when we get an NM but my 2 melee's don't have TP right away to wreck it.

[Thorny]

Well, that's what yunie is saying. If the first mob was the ph(1/5 chance) you'd get a good chunk of NMs. If it wasn't, you'd probably get none as you only kill the first mob.

...That said, it's retarded and I'd bet my left testicle it's wrong.

[yunie]

My group talked about something similar to this in the past, but we never changed our monster names to test it. I don't know. Easiest way to see if this is correct is to keep doing Ramparts runs.

Problem is most people have given up and accepted the fact that it's probably just random. I'm just being hopeful that there is some kind of condition that triggers the NM pop.

[Kipling]

Well, that's what yunie is saying. If the first mob was the ph(1/5 chance) you'd get a good chunk of NMs. If it wasn't, you'd probably get none as you only kill the first mob.

...That said, it's retarded and I'd bet my left testicle it's wrong.

I understand that, but what I'm trying to convey is that if the 2 sams actually have TP then the Widow or whatever NM will generally die with only 1 mob up. Last time we did Widow we got 5-6~ of them and usually it was only able to pop 2 max with 1 being the norm. So I just feel like if this theory is true that is INSANE placeholder luck.

@Yunie: Or it could be that you guys are going through the normal desperateness that comes with an unlucky streak in BR.... Just sayin'.

[Julian]

Didn't people a while back keep all 5 mobs slept, and then the NM popped anyway? Been a really long time, and I slightly remember this from one of the old threads, so not sure if I'm remembering it right.

[Thorny]

I understand that, but what I'm trying to convey is that if the 2 sams actually have TP then the Widow or whatever NM will generally die with only 1 mob up. Last time we did Widow we got 5-6~ of them and usually it was only able to pop 2 max with 1 being the norm. So I just feel like if this theory is true that is INSANE placeholder luck.

@Yunie: Or it could be that you guys are going through the normal desperateness that comes with an unlucky streak in BR.... Just sayin'.

PH doesn't have to change when it pops, just per run. If PH is mob #1, then you will always have it dead essentially meaning a lot of widow pops. If PH is mob #5, you'll hopefully never have it dead, hence no pops.

[Tsuki]

Although I can't say definitively that this debunks it, I can say that killing first pop each time, we have seen low % NM pops where there was no pops previously. This can be countered by assuming the first pop IS the PH and we're just getting unlucky with the NM, but I doubt it, its more likely that all mobs are PH's. we've had a few situations where this has happened previously so I'm more inclined to say that its got little to do with which of the 5 pops are killed.

[Hanyoko]

I remember observing the following back when I had a DAT modded

Spawn of #1, Spawn of #2 ; #1 killed before next spawn. Next spawn was #1

After killing more (rampart under 80% or so) I saw a pattern change

Spawn of #1, Spawn of #2 ; #1 killed before next spawn. Next spawn was #3
And it would continue to cycle through 1,2,3 (skipping ones that were up and poping 4 if 1,2 and 3 were up)

This could tie back to what was said at some interview that there are patterns that could lead to more NM showing up.

Overview:
A random chig is picked to be the 'NM' placeholder
There is a set spawn pattern for the chigs. The usual pattern is "keep spawning 1" which as we all know if 1 is up, it will spawn 2, etc etc
At times (hp %, time, ???) the pattern can change so that it will do "spawn 1 then spawn 2" or "spawn 1 then 2 then 3". With these it will do that pattern to the end then loop back

orrrrrr

Its random yo.

[Michelob]

PH doesn't have to change when it pops, just per run. If PH is mob #1, then you will always have it dead essentially meaning a lot of widow pops. If PH is mob #5, you'll hopefully never have it dead, hence no pops.

What Uryuu is saying is that usually when the NM popped they would have a few mobs backed up. What are the odds that the PH would find itself at the front of the list everytime?

[yunie]

I remember observing the following back when I had a DAT modded

Spawn of #1, Spawn of #2 ; #1 killed before next spawn. Next spawn was #1

After killing more (rampart under 80% or so) I saw a pattern change

Spawn of #1, Spawn of #2 ; #1 killed before next spawn. Next spawn was #3
And it would continue to cycle through 1,2,3 (skipping ones that were up and poping 4 if 1,2 and 3 were up)

This could tie back to what was said at some interview that there are patterns that could lead to more NM showing up.

Overview:
A random chig is picked to be the 'NM' placeholder
There is a set spawn pattern for the chigs. The usual pattern is "keep spawning 1" which as we all know if 1 is up, it will spawn 2, etc etc
At times (hp %, time, ???) the pattern can change so that it will do "spawn 1 then spawn 2" or "spawn 1 then 2 then 3". With these it will do that pattern to the end then loop back

orrrrrr

Its random yo.

Do you have the URL for the interview? I would like to read it, thanks.

[miokomioko]

My friend's nephew's dog's original owner's physical therapist's janitor's son told me about interview with SE.

[lotmorning]

Didn't people a while back keep all 5 mobs slept, and then the NM popped anyway? Been a really long time, and I slightly remember this from one of the old threads, so not sure if I'm remembering it right.

Yes, my old shell (on fairy with astatine and others) use to wait till all 5 where pop before we would kill one. Back then we did see alot of pops, however groups I have gone with now have stopped doing that. I just assumed that theory was proven false.

[Hanyoko]

Kawanishi: There is a pattern under which the NM will not pop at all. If you fight it to a certain point and still nothing has popped, nothing is going to pop and it would be wiser to simply give up and move on. Beyond that, the pop conditions are a secret.

from http://www.jpbutton.com/?p=2533
and BG discussion related to said interview http://www.bluegartr.com/forum/showthread.php?t=72707

Which as confusing as it can all be leads to confirm that 1) there is a pattern where no NMs can pop, and 2) there are 1 or more patterns that can result in NMs poping.
Questions: what does a pattern entail? how can you tell your pattern? etc. etc. etc.

[Tsuki]

There is a pattern under which the NM will not pop at all. If you fight it to a certain point and still nothing has popped, nothing is going to pop and it would be wiser to simply give up and move on. Beyond that, the pop conditions are a secret.

As soon as we had got a 10% pop after going from 100 without seeing one, I threw the logic in this interview out the window when I had realized neither the day nor the moonphase had changed. I think he just said that to make those JPs who leave after 20% of no-pops feel better.

[Miraun]

Ehh, I'm at a terribly high number for 0/xxx for Ares Gauntlets, and would be willing to try to latch onto anything to complete full Ares.

I'll try to do some testing next run, but could anyone supply me the website for the Salvage .dat mods?