NFL Divisional Round: Uncharted Territory

[Flarega]

You'll have to be more specific, on the chargers that could be almost anybody.

[Headspace]

Norv obviously

[Moss]

Cards v. Saints could go either way. I don't think the Cards defense is as bad as they played last week, the GB defense isn't either for that matter, I think it was just superior offense. I can see a very similar shootout happening this weekend, although the Cards might be wise to pound the rock with Beanie and keep Breesus off the field.

[Flarega]

Norv obviously

Yeah he does look like another douche I'm familiar with:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ndFUCVGbt3...orv-turner.jpg--http://www.mtv.com/onair/jersey_shor...ie/281x211.jpg

[Headspace]

looooooooooooooool

[Clyne]

we know that New Orleans is, at the very least, good defensively.

Wait, what?!?!

Having the 25th ranked defense (26th vs. pass) in 2009 is now considered good?

Both teams have very similar defenses tbh; they give up a lot, but rely on turnovers/big plays to keep them in it. Ultimately, I think whichever team finishes with better rushing stats wins this game. But you couldn't pay me to bet on this game. Both teams are so fucked up in terms of playing consistently, you don't know what you're going to get

[Cleverness]

Arizona @ New Orleans; Pending the injuries on Arizona obviously, but it's all about momentum for me here. The Saints lost the last 3, and haven't played in almost 2 weeks. The Cardinals are coming off a good win offensively, and barring Kurt Warner getting taken out by a sniper, it'll stay that way.

Baltimore @ Indy; Come on now.

Dallas @ Minnesota; Just comes down to Romo vs Favre honestly in my eyes. Whoever plays better, that team will win, and I'm expecting it to be Romo atm.

NYJ @ San Diego; Did people forget that the Jets are ranked as the top Defense in the league before the postseason? Revis is pretty much Jesus this season, and if you think they don't expect Gates pretty much getting every other pass, come on. It really just comes down to whether Sanchez can mimic last weeks performance and not his average 2009 season performance after Game 3. Just going by stats Chargers have an average run defense, and the Jets run the ball like it's nobody's business.

[Cleverness]

And I'm not gonna lie, I got money to win if the Jets and Cowboys meet in the Super Bowl, may or may not sway my decision <_<.

[Moss]

NYJ @ San Diego; Did people forget that the Jets are ranked as the top Defense in the league before the postseason? Revis is pretty much Jesus this season, and if you think they don't expect Gates pretty much getting every other pass, come on. It really just comes down to whether Sanchez can mimic last weeks performance and not his average 2009 season performance after Game 3. Just going by stats Chargers have an average run defense, and the Jets run the ball like it's nobody's business.

Did you forget that the Jets made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth after beating 2 teams resting their starters? Congrats to them for beating the Bungals but c'mon. The last time the Jets played a team not resting their starters my mighty Falcons held them to 82 yards rushing. The Jets are just too one-dimensional. If any game was a lock this week, this would be the game imo.

[Sol-Blackguy]

Haven't really been doing picks all year, but w/e:

Arizona @ NO - Warner is a beast in the playoffs and was doing everything short of going Super Saiyan on the sidelines against the packers. While more touchdowns than incomplete passes is incredible, Breesus Christ is overdue for a post season second coming. Saints are 6-2 at home so I'm taking home field advantage on this one because the Super Dome is fucking haunted. Still expecting this to be one hell of a game either way.

Baltimore @ Indy - This is by far a must win for Caldwell. He spent the second half of the season saying they weren't going to rest starters but was talking out of his neck. Can Paycheck Manning go back into God Mode after 3 weeks of laying down. Is Ray Rice still going to eat up the O-Line? Can Ray Lewis get inside Manning's head before everyone converts to 3:4 defense next year? I don't know, going to channel my inner homer for once since I originally though my Ravens were too flawed to make the playoffs in the first place.

Dallas @ Minnesota - J.J. already said Phillips is coming back next year, but I'm calling B.S. unless they get to the championship. This is also a must win for Chill since he put his job on the line to get Favre. Romo and Favre are both choke artists so it's a matter of who turns into a pumpkin first. I'm going with Favre's overall experience on this one. The real winner though is going to be Madden, he gets to see both loves of his life head to head. I hope Mary bought enough tissue...

NYJ @ SD - You know, if it wasn't for Dallas' defense, everyone would be talking about the Jets and if it wasn't for Brees, Favre, and Manning, everyone would be talking about Rivers. This is going to be interesting either way. Looking for Rivers to make a funny face, LT to "slide" in some TD's, but Dirty Sanchez to "just not fuck it up." Jets for the upset. (there has to be at least one this week)

Also, Fuck Don Shula!

[Tyche]

Wait, what?!?!

Having the 25th ranked defense (26th vs. pass) in 2009 is now considered good?

Both teams have very similar defenses tbh; they give up a lot, but rely on turnovers/big plays to keep them in it. Ultimately, I think whichever team finishes with better rushing stats wins this game. But you couldn't pay me to bet on this game. Both teams are so fucked up in terms of playing consistently, you don't know what you're going to get

Here's the stat you need to know, because it may be the most important defensive stat you'll read all week regarding this game.

Arizona is 31st in the league in giveaways. The only team that has given the ball away more...Detroit Lions.

In an ironically mirrored stat, New Orleans is 2nd in takeaways. They have the 3rd best turnover ratio in the league.

[Carrilei]

Wait, what?!?!

Having the 25th ranked defense (26th vs. pass) in 2009 is now considered good?

Both teams have very similar defenses tbh; they give up a lot, but rely on turnovers/big plays to keep them in it. Ultimately, I think whichever team finishes with better rushing stats wins this game. But you couldn't pay me to bet on this game. Both teams are so fucked up in terms of playing consistently, you don't know what you're going to get

Total yards allowed isn't necessarily the best way to rate a defense.. Much of that is because they were winning, and teams throw more often when behind. A better gauge on their pass defense would be the 68.6 passer rating against, which obviously is fantastic.

Take the "7th ranked" Raiders for example, in passing yards allowed. Are they the 7th best passing defense? Hell no, they're closer to 27th than 7th.. By passer rating against, they're 22nd.

[Militant]

NYJ @ San Diego; Did people forget that the Jets are ranked as the top Defense in the league before the postseason? Revis is pretty much Jesus this season, and if you think they don't expect Gates pretty much getting every other pass, come on. It really just comes down to whether Sanchez can mimic last weeks performance and not his average 2009 season performance after Game 3. Just going by stats Chargers have an average run defense, and the Jets run the ball like it's nobody's business.

What you are happening to forget is that the Jets defense is #1 statistically, but stats only show half the truth. The fact is the Jets front 4 produce little to no pressure. The Jets overall defense might be a 8.5/10, but the front 4 get a 3/10 at best. The only way they disrupt the quarter back is by blitzing. Philip Rivers eats blitzes for breakfast, and he has way too many weapons at his disposal for Revis, Shephard, and lolRhodes to handle. Watch for Sproles to break a few coming out of the back field on a blitz or two. Most teams don't have the amount of weapons that SD has, and I just don't think ANY of the match ups favor the Jets defensively in this one.

Are we forgetting the Atlanta game where Turner was out, their #2 reciever was out, and the Jets "Dominating" defense couldn't stop the Falcons on 4 straight 3rd downs, and then let them score on a subsequent 4th down to end the game?

Are we forgetting the defense that lost iirc 3 other games on FINAL drives? Look, I don't care if you give up 7 points for the first 58 minutes of the game, if you let the other team score when they absolutely must be stopped, then you are not a dominant defense. The Jets of this year, are a prime example of this.

The amount the Jets talk about their defense, and Rex Ryan, and these other guys open their mouths about it, and feel the need to shove down our throats everyday they are the #1 defense is getting out of fucking hand. We get it. Who had the #1 defense last year? The year before that? Oh yeah, that's right, no one remembers. This is the most over-rated defense that I can remember in recent history.

Chargers by 10.

[Moss]

Total yards allowed isn't necessarily the best way to rate a defense.. Much of that is because they were winning, and teams throw more often when behind. A better gauge on their pass defense would be the 68.6 passer rating against, which obviously is fantastic.

Take the "8th ranked" Raiders for example, in passing yards allowed. Are they the 8th best passing defense? Hell no, they're closer to 28th than 8th.. By passer rating against, they're 22nd.

Saints' Pass Defense 4-3 Formation, 2009 Season
First 11 Last 5
Comp pct. 54.2 75.4
Yds per att. 5.0 10.1
TD-Int 2-6 3-1
Passer rtg. 54.2 116.5
Team W-L 11-0 2-3

"The Saints' pass defense ranked third among NFL teams in holding opposing quarterbacks to low passer ratings. Here's the thing, though. The Saints faced Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman (twice), Jake Delhomme (twice) and Chad Henne. Marc Bulger had 298 yards against them and nearly won the game. " -Mike Sando

edit: sorry the format on those stats is shitty, tried to fix it

[Tyche]

Henne completes over 60% of his passes with Tedd Ginn on his team. Don't hate.

[Celeras]

I bet VJax still beats the shit out of Revis.

Just like Ochocinco, right?

Stick with your guns, you're bound to be right eventually. And then you'll look smart. Until then, lol.

[Carrilei]

Saints' Pass Defense 4-3 Formation, 2009 Season
First 11 Last 5
Comp pct. 54.2 75.4
Yds per att. 5.0 10.1
TD-Int 2-6 3-1
Passer rtg. 54.2 116.5
Team W-L 11-0 2-3

"The Saints' pass defense ranked third among NFL teams in holding opposing quarterbacks to low passer ratings. Here's the thing, though. The Saints faced Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman (twice), Jake Delhomme (twice) and Chad Henne. Marc Bulger had 298 yards against them and nearly won the game. " -Mike Sando

edit: sorry the format on those stats is shitty, tried to fix it

That's a good point, they did face a lot of shitty quarterbacks/offenses.. I'm still going to grimace when someone references yardage and yardage only as to the rank of a particular unit.

[Moss]

I agree, mainly wanted to point out the QB rating against the past 5 games. The bottom line is the Saints were jumping out to leads early and playing aggressive defense early in the season. Lately they haven't been able to do this and we have seen the results. I wouldn't be surprised if they won, I'm just not expecting them to hit their stride again after three straight losses.

[Headspace]

Did I say ocho was going to beat Revis?

I might've but I wasn't serious. Vjax is a foot taller than Revis, faster than Ocho and has a good douchey quarterback who doesn't give a fuck.

If Tedd Ginn can burn Revis, Jackson can.

[Akiyama]

What you are happening to forget is that the Jets defense is #1 statistically, but stats only show half the truth. The fact is the Jets front 4 produce little to no pressure. The Jets overall defense might be a 8.5/10, but the front 4 get a 3/10 at best. The only way they disrupt the quarter back is by blitzing. Philip Rivers eats blitzes for breakfast, and he has way too many weapons at his disposal for Revis, Shephard, and lolRhodes to handle. Watch for Sproles to break a few coming out of the back field on a blitz or two. Most teams don't have the amount of weapons that SD has, and I just don't think ANY of the match ups favor the Jets defensively in this one.

Are we forgetting the Atlanta game where Turner was out, their #2 reciever was out, and the Jets "Dominating" defense couldn't stop the Falcons on 4 straight 3rd downs, and then let them score on a subsequent 4th down to end the game?

Are we forgetting the defense that lost iirc 3 other games on FINAL drives? Look, I don't care if you give up 7 points for the first 58 minutes of the game, if you let the other team score when they absolutely must be stopped, then you are not a dominant defense. The Jets of this year, are a prime example of this.

The amount the Jets talk about their defense, and Rex Ryan, and these other guys open their mouths about it, and feel the need to shove down our throats everyday they are the #1 defense is getting out of fucking hand. We get it. Who had the #1 defense last year? The year before that? Oh yeah, that's right, no one remembers. This is the most over-rated defense that I can remember in recent history.

Chargers by 10.

Completely agree. They really miss a certain big cog that makes that defensive wheel turn for the front 4.

One thing I do disagree with is the matchups. I like Revis over VJax. He can get shut down as shown earlier in the year when he had mediocre weeks. Outside of that matchup though? Rhodes vs Gates is a joke. If Gates doesn't get AT LEAST 6 catches, 80 yards, and a TD... I'll be really surprised.

I think it could be close, but I'd say 24-17 with Kaeding kicking a FG during their last possession before the Jets get the ball back.