2010 MLB Season Discussion

[Conrad]

Maybe they should get Brett Favre to pitch.

[Bozo]

ESPN article on Mauer/Morneau and Target Field. It's an insider article so I pasted it here.

Spoiler: show

Like most new ballparks, Target Field has done wonders for baseball in Minnesota. Folks in the Twin Cities are once again excited to go support their team in person. But are Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and the other players excited about it? From a pure "batting" perspective, would they rather be back in the Metrodome? With the help of our friends at HitTracker Online, we can journey through time and space to see what would happen to home run balls if they had been hit in other ballparks.

So far this year there have been 50 home runs hit in 36 games at Target Field. That's only 1.4 per game, the fourth-lowest in the majors. Compare that to the 189 hit last season at the Metrodome, which is more than 2.3 per game. Additionally, the average distance of a trip around Minnesota's bases is down nearly 14 feet-- from 400.2 to 386.6. Eight of last season's homers would have stayed in play in the new park. The challenge is to figure out why.

Obviously the Twins' move outside brings the weather into play. In theory, cooler air holds more moisture, which prevents the ball from carrying quite as far. Last year, Twins fans had to prepare for temperatures as scorching as 70°, or all the way down to (brrr) 68°. In very obvious contrast, this season's game-time temps have ranged from 45° (May 11) to 88° (May 29). Unfortunately, it takes some real extremes to see an impact in home-run distances solely due to the thermometer. The average ball at Target Field has only been "knocked down" by 10 inches because of it. The coldest homer was Morneau's on May 11, which traveled 376 feet and only lost two feet due to the 44-degree conditions. That one would have been a homer at the 'Dome as well.

So if the temperature effect is negligible, what about the wind? Right field at the Target is open to an entrance plaza and the downtown skyline, whereas the rest of the stadium is double-decked and creates a swirl. Surely balls hit to right will get into that wind current one way or another.

This design feature seems to be the biggest reason why right field and right-center have proven to be "death valley" for hitters. The prevailing winds in Minneapolis are from the south and southwest. Since home plate faces east, the wind usually either comes straight in from right, or it wraps around the end of the first-base stands. Low line drives have a chance at getting out (and do), but a fly ball gets pushed back toward center field where it's easily catchable. A spray chart of the homers hit this season shows only one to right-center and one to straightaway center. Compare that with last year at the Metrodome, where the homers are spread evenly around the outfield. This is despite the actual field dimensions of the two parks being nearly identical.

If you take the home runs the M&M Boys hit last season and superimpose them on a plot of Target Field, it's a wash. Every one of Morneau's bombs last season would also have gone out of the new place. Mauer does lose one homer in the move, but he also gains one back; a long fly ball that he hit on May 11 would have been a tater if they were still playing at the other end of town.

Both of Morneau's home runs at Target Field have been of the "low line drive to right" variety, where they sneak out of the stadium underneath the wind. Seven of his nine doubles there have also been to right or right-center-- where the wind would knock down any fly ball that had a chance. Overall, Morneau already has 12 two-baggers to the right side, the same number that he had all of last season. It's also possible that he's still feeling some effects from the stress fracture in his back that brought an early end to his season last year.

Data from Inside Edge suggests that Morneau is more reluctant to swing at fastballs this season, even though he's seeing the same number of good pitches to hit. His overall swing rate against all pitches has dropped, and against heaters, it's fallen from 45% to 36%. That suggests Morneau might be passing up some opportunities. In fact, he's hit more homers this season on off-speed pitches (seven) than on fastballs (six)-- after hitting twice as many on heat each of the last three seasons.

Mauer, who has yet to hit a home run in the new park, has the opposite problem-- NOT getting balls up in the air. Mauer is putting more balls on the ground, especially the ones right down the heart of the plate, which he crushed (.571 BA) last year. This season that average has dipped to .364, and the number of ground balls has doubled. Mauer has also fallen victim to better defensive positioning; his batting average on balls in play has dropped 45 points this year, and more than 100 on pitches that are over the middle of the plate horizontally.

Mauer could be feeling the wind also. He already has seven doubles to the right side; last year he finished the entire season with nine. Adding to that, HitTracker also categorizes each home run by how much extra it had after it cleared the fence. Of Mauer's 28 bombs last season, 11 weren't really "bombs". They had "just enough" to get out of the park. Seven of those were at the Metrodome. With just a slight loss of Mauer Power, plus the wind factoring in, all of those turn into outs.

I have mixed feeling about the article. Most of the doubles that Morneau has hit weren't anywhere close to home runs. Just from watching games, anyone could tell that Mauer is putting the ball on the ground far too often. I hope (and expect) that he'll correct that as the season goes on.

I'd love to land one of these jobs. I haven't been following advanced statistics and analysis for very long, but I find it fascinating now. Maybe I should grab a degree in statistics.

You jerks hit plenty of home runs at CBP. You've had enough for the season! I think the Phillies and Twins combined for like 180,000 dollars to prostrate cancer that one game. Of course 160,000 would have been just as good, talking about you Joe Mauer!

[Cephius]

Maybe they should get Brett Favre to pitch.

He'd look like such a kid out there, the gunslinger!

[Bozo]

Jimmy Rollins activated. Gregg Dobbs DFA. Mike Zagurski called up.

Carlos Ruiz to disabled List. Could they be a little fucking quicker to pull the DL trigger? They go from he'll be ready the middle of this week to the DL.

Edit: Remembered Zagurski being terrible in Spring Training but he's got some insane numbers at AAA. 29G, 30.2IP, 22H(1HR), 8ER, 45/13 K/BB.

[*Shinzon*]

From ESPN NY, Seinfeld on Lady Gaga flippin people off at Citi field:

Seinfeld was linked to Lady Gaga on July 10, when the singer was escorted to his empty luxury box at Citi Field without his permission after she was caught on camera in the stands at a New York Mets game giving the finger to photographers and fans. "This woman is a jerk. I hate her," Seinfeld joked, as host Steve Somers howled with laughter. "I can't believe they put her in my box, which I paid for ... You give people the finger and you get upgraded? Is that the world we're living in now? It's pathetic. And why is she giving the finger? How old is the finger? How'd it even get to be the finger? Somewhere along the line somebody decided this is the bad finger."

[Viq]

For the record, the coldest postseason game ever played was in game 4 of the 97 World Series in Cleveland where it was 35 degrees at first pitch. (game 3 of Phillies-Rockies last year tied it)

So uh yeah, pretty sure a Twins postseason game could destroy that record if they make it deep into the postseason.

Don't forget that early April games can be just as bad, if not worse. I was at the 2nd game of the season last year at Fenway where the first pitch temp was 36, just one degree off the postseason record. The $40 I spent on hot chocolate that night can attest to the fact that it didn't stay 36 for long.

You just never know. The Twins could get lucky with weather at that time of year. Remember in 2007 when it was snowing balls in Denver between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series? That weather passed, and there were no issues when the Sox were sweeping up the Rockies. That's basically what Minnesota is going to have to hope for.

[Vagrant]

Glad to see the Joba rules make a comeback in the Bronx. Or are they the Hughes rules now?

[Alderaan]

3-0 Atl and i go to make some dinner and come back to a 6-3 Sox lead ; ;

[Cephius]

Glad to see the Joba rules make a comeback in the Bronx. Or are they the Hughes rules now?

What about the Strasburg rules? Oh yeah, people forget the Yankees aren't the only club to use inning limits

Don't forget that early April games can be just as bad, if not worse. I was at the 2nd game of the season last year at Fenway where the first pitch temp was 36, just one degree off the postseason record. The $40 I spent on hot chocolate that night can attest to the fact that it didn't stay 36 for long.

You just never know. The Twins could get lucky with weather at that time of year. Remember in 2007 when it was snowing balls in Denver between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series? That weather passed, and there were no issues when the Sox were sweeping up the Rockies. That's basically what Minnesota is going to have to hope for.

Yeah, you never know, but it does seem there's a better chance of extreme conditions in Minnesota than anywhere else really.

[Akiyama]

sure is some terrible Hanson pitching

[Alderaan]

For fucks sake, Hanson getting shelled.

[Alderaan]

Talk about a bad day for my pitching staff.

I had Hanson and Verlander going.

[Akiyama]

Lol. Hanson has his rocky times for sure. When he's on, he's awesome. When he's off.. Reds/White Sox starts.

[Moss]

Lol. Hanson has his rocky times for sure. When he's on, he's awesome. When he's off.. Reds/White Sox starts.

The thing is he didn't have any awful starts last year, dunno wtf is up with him this year. Before my stream died he was leaving everything up even though he was getting outs. Not surprised he got hit but holy fuck...

[Akiyama]

Welp. McCann just snapped our 42 game win streak when scoring 5+ run.

[Cephius]

How is it possible that Dan Haren has a .429 batting average, what the fuck

[Alderaan]

The thing is he didn't have any awful starts last year, dunno wtf is up with him this year. Before my stream died he was leaving everything up even though he was getting outs. Not surprised he got hit but holy fuck...

His throwing motion, the way he short arms it, makes it so easy to have problems with mechanics. He's struggled to get his great curve ball over all year.

[Moss]

His throwing motion, the way he short arms it, makes it so easy to have problems with mechanics. He's struggled to get his great curve ball over all year.

Yeah that is a good point. I haven't seen many of his starts this year but that definitely makes sense.

[Conrad]

How'd the Braves lose? They scored more than 5 runs!

[Mertron]

Did I just hear this right in the Yankee game?

The Diamondbacks have 7 pitchers in their bullpen, no left handers at all?

Thats pretty awesome.