2010 MLB Season Discussion

[Bregor]

Bregor, I think K's are a pretty balanced stat. After Lincecum, most guys with a ton of strikeouts have a higher WHIP from more walks.

That would be nice if it were true. Just eyeballing last year's stats, Lincecum, Haren, Vazquez, Halladay, Greinke, and King Felix were all in the qualifying top ten in WHIP with 200+ K's. Conversely, big K guys like Verlander, Beckett, CC and Josh Johnson still had WHIPs under 1.20. That's a huge advantage to land those guys. If my league was 5x5 this year, my draft board would go Pujols, HanRam, then a bunch of pitchers, with maybe Braun and ARod somewhere in the mix. It's just too much value to dominate four of the five pitching categories in my opinion. The only good thing about the move is it marginalizes the value of closers, with saves counting for only 20% of pitching rather than 25%.

[Kurp]

Even with strikeouts counting, elite starting pitchers aren't taken en masse early. You're lucky to see one in the first round or two taken by the second.

True, I haven't played Roto in years until this one, but I've looked at numerous mock drafts by experts using 5x5 and they usually play out the same way.

[Bregor]

Even with strikeouts counting, elite starting pitchers aren't taken en masse early. You're lucky to see one in the first round or two taken by the second.

True, I haven't played Roto in years until this one, but I've looked at numerous mock drafts by experts using 5x5 and they usually play out the same way.

I know, and I've done plenty of 5x5 leagues. And all drafts usually do unfold the same way. And then you look at Player Rater at the end of the year and you realize that Javy Vazquez is the 9th most valuable player in the league. Now I understand that pitchers in general are more volatile from year to year than position players, but I still contend that it's worth the risk to slot Lincecum, Halladay and Greinke above non-Pujols 1Bs, Kemp, Upton and the like. Which is why it's just a preference of mine to go 4x4 and why I am disappoint that next year my main league is going 5x5.

[Kurp]

I counted pitchers from one ESPN draft and there were six taken through four rounds and 11 through five. That seems pretty good to me. 39 position players and 11 pitchers through five rounds doesn't seem like it's really skewed towards pitchers.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/ba...mlbdk2k10mock2

I'm curious to see what your 4x4 drafts look like in comparison.

[Bregor]

We pretty much follow most 5x5 leagues' ADP, maybe even taking starters a little higher in the early rounds. I'd have to look at the draft board since we trade a lot of picks during the draft, but I know Halladay and Lincecum were 1st rounders, and Grienke, CC and Felix went in the 2nd. The biggest difference I've noticed is that once the top 20-25 starters are gone, we pick a lot of bats and closers in the middle rounds before filling out the back ends of our rotations.

[pohibaba]

If anyone would like to join an extra fantasy league I set one up so my girlfriend and I can play together and we need more teams for our draft to go off. The league name is Adjustable Cap and is a standard ESPN league. We have a live draft that starts at 5:00 PM EST today. It's a public league so anyone is more than welcomed to join.

[Moss]

That would be nice if it were true. Just eyeballing last year's stats, Lincecum, Haren, Vazquez, Halladay, Greinke, and King Felix were all in the qualifying top ten in WHIP with 200+ K's. Conversely, big K guys like Verlander, Beckett, CC and Josh Johnson still had WHIPs under 1.20. That's a huge advantage to land those guys. If my league was 5x5 this year, my draft board would go Pujols, HanRam, then a bunch of pitchers, with maybe Braun and ARod somewhere in the mix. It's just too much value to dominate four of the five pitching categories in my opinion. The only good thing about the move is it marginalizes the value of closers, with saves counting for only 20% of pitching rather than 25%.

I still don't see how it's a problem that the elite contribute in more categories. The best hitters are going to help in runs, BA, HR, and RBI - with some like Hanley contributing steals also. If it was really as big an advantage as you seem to think, you would be able to fill out your staff with almost all of the guys you mentioned and dominate the league. However, you would end up with some seriously shitty hitters because there is less depth in that area. There are plenty of starters who will sit on the waiver wire all year and contribute some K's without killing your WHIP and ERA. It's simple math - 5 starting pitchers per team, yet only one starter(or technically less if there is a platoon) at the other positions. If your draft strategy is to grab some stud pitchers that's fine and sometimes viable, but saying 5x5 makes the elite too valuable is wrong in my opinion.

[Kurp]

If anyone would like to join an extra fantasy league I set one up so my girlfriend and I can play together and we need more teams for our draft to go off. The league name is Adjustable Cap and is a standard ESPN league. We have a live draft that starts at 5:00 PM EST today. It's a public league so anyone is more than welcomed to join.

I'd join, but there's no way I could make that draft time.

[Bregor]

The best hitters are going to help in runs, BA, HR, and RBI - with some like Hanley contributing steals also.

Yes but I'm just looking at the 5th category on each side, which for hitters is runs. Are runs really separating elite from merely serviceable? Most decent hitters, leadoff men, and guys in good lineups will score between 85-100 runs given health and PAs. You can say the best hitters will give you runs, but so do terrible hitters. Vernon Wells, a huge bust, scored 84 runs. Kendry Morales, a breakout star, had 86. Why? Because Cito Gaston kept marching Wells out there every day for four or five PAs, and despite his own futility and the Blue Jays punchless lineup, he still managed to score runs.

If it was really as big an advantage as you seem to think, you would be able to fill out your staff with almost all of the guys you mentioned and dominate the league. However, you would end up with some seriously shitty hitters because there is less depth in that area.

Well you can't do that for two reasons. First, you won't win a league by completely punting the offensive categories, and second, once you have three of the top six or seven starters, it gets to be overkill. But say you had a late first round pick, and took Lincecum, Halladay, Haren, and then went all bats and closers after that until you needed to fill out the back of your staff. No one actually does that, but I bet you'd end up winning ERA, WHIP, K's and wins. If your offense can even be average, you'd be a contender. If you make smart picks and maybe sign this year's Aaron Hill off waivers, it'd be difficult not to win.

saying 5x5 makes the elite too valuable is wrong in my opinion.

I'm not saying it's game-changing, it's just a slight advantage in favor of starters that I dislike. I also don't care for runs very much. Call me crazy, but I also liked Val Kilmer as Batman, and mayonnaise on my fries, so I guess I'm just an outlier.

[Abraxas]

its preseason and its the lolpirates, but my gf just scored some 2nd row diamond club seats from her boss for friday night's game. can't wait

[Conrad]

I'm going to that game too, actually. Gonna be 11 rows behind the visitor's dugout or something like that, my dad got them from one of his customers and gave me the tickets with the caveat that I bring my brother with me. I've seriously never been more excited for a baseball season to start.

[Byrd]

Jamie Moyer wins the 5th spot in the Phillies lineup at 47 years old. He's got 258 wins. If he plays a few more years and hits 300, how much hall of fame consideration does he get?

[Bozo]

Jamie Moyer wins the 5th spot in the Phillies lineup at 47 years old. He's got 258 wins. If he plays a few more years and hits 300, how much hall of fame consideration does he get?

I read somewhere that if he pitches well then it would be pretty historic. Phil Neirko(I might have the last name wrong) is one of the few to pitch a full season at that age.

Moyer did win 16 games not long ago, so 300 wouldn't be impossible but still pretty hard.

Edit: Couldn't find your PSN Aki, mines Bozo31215

[Moss]

Yes but I'm just looking at the 5th category on each side, which for hitters is runs. Are runs really separating elite from merely serviceable? Most decent hitters, leadoff men, and guys in good lineups will score between 85-100 runs given health and PAs. You can say the best hitters will give you runs, but so do terrible hitters. Vernon Wells, a huge bust, scored 84 runs. Kendry Morales, a breakout star, had 86. Why? Because Cito Gaston kept marching Wells out there every day for four or five PAs, and despite his own futility and the Blue Jays punchless lineup, he still managed to score runs.

There are guys for every statistic that excel for no reason other than opportunity. It would make more sense imo to get rid of W's, since those really aren't in the pitcher's control.

Well you can't do that for two reasons. First, you won't win a league by completely punting the offensive categories, and second, once you have three of the top six or seven starters, it gets to be overkill. But say you had a late first round pick, and took Lincecum, Halladay, Haren, and then went all bats and closers after that until you needed to fill out the back of your staff. No one actually does that, but I bet you'd end up winning ERA, WHIP, K's and wins. If your offense can even be average, you'd be a contender. If you make smart picks and maybe sign this year's Aaron Hill off waivers, it'd be difficult not to win.

I was exaggerating by saying grab ALL of the guys you mentioned, but seriously, follow your own advice next year because I am curious to see how it would turn out. Personally I think the lack of hitter depth(after pick 30 the best hitters are guys like Sandoval and Derek Jeter) would more than offset your expected dominance of the pitching categories.

I'm not saying it's game-changing, it's just a slight advantage in favor of starters that I dislike. I also don't care for runs very much. Call me crazy, but I also liked Val Kilmer as Batman, and mayonnaise on my fries, so I guess I'm just an outlier.

It's cool, to each their own.

[Moss]

I read somewhere that if he pitches well then it would be pretty historic. Phil Neirko(I might have the last name wrong) is one of the few to pitch a full season at that age.

Moyer did win 16 games not long ago, so 300 wouldn't be impossible but still pretty hard.

Edit: Couldn't find your PSN Aki, mines Bozo31215

Phil Niekro was also knuckleballer - to be pitching at Moyer's age "normally" is pretty impressive.

[Trichocyst]

I think if he gets 300 he'll have a chance, but it's really iffy. He'll be the oldest non knuckleball pitcher to start multiple games in a season at his age. I think a lot of people in baseball are really rooting for him to get there.

[Soa]

Jayson Stark did an article about Moyer 2-3 weeks ago, and said if he won the 5th starter spot he would be the oldest non-knuckleballer ever to be a regular starter in major league history. The only person older to even get a start only started 1 game then never pitched again.

If he somehow manages to get 300 wins I don't see how they could keep him out of the HoF honestly. He's probably got at least 3-4 more years for that though so its a long shot.

[Bozo]

Joe Blanton. Oblique Strain. Fuck. Hopefully it's not too serious, think Happ only missed 2-3 starts with his last September.

[Hex]

Denard Span hit his own mom with a foul ball today.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_yl...nsfoulball-mom

[Akiyama]

If anyone would like to join an extra fantasy league I set one up so my girlfriend and I can play together and we need more teams for our draft to go off. The league name is Adjustable Cap and is a standard ESPN league. We have a live draft that starts at 5:00 PM EST today. It's a public league so anyone is more than welcomed to join.

Aww, I would've joined. D: Draft time was a little eh for me though.

And I'll add ya later, Bozo.