Sandworm "Question"

[Neoscrilla]

I'm sorry bout that, I didnt wanna shrink it so the names cant be seen at the bottom

[Ramses]

The chance of it popping in any ONE zone is about once per week. The chance of it popping in the same zone two days in a row is about once every month and a half. Saying it is a 1/7 chance is taking into account that you know what zone it popped in the day before. The true odds don't work that way.

[FailureMidgard]

The chance of it popping in any ONE zone is about once per week. The chance of it popping in the same zone two days in a row is about once every month and a half. Saying it is a 1/7 chance is taking into account that you know what zone it popped in the day before. The true odds don't work that way.

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. Normally I don't mind when someone is wrong, but stop trying to correct others when you have no idea.

Given 2 days, you have 49 different combinations. Of these 49 combinations, EXACTLY 7 of them are guess what, a repeat.

Spoiler: show

1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, 1-7
2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 2-4, 2-5, 2-6, 2-7
3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, 3-7
4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7
5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, 5-6, 5-7
6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, 6-6, 6-7
7-1, 7-2, 7-3, 7-4, 7-5, 7-6, 7-7

7/49 is....drumroll....1/7.

[Pocketrockets]

The chance of it popping in any ONE zone is about once per week. The chance of it popping in the same zone two days in a row is about once every month and a half. Saying it is a 1/7 chance is taking into account that you know what zone it popped in the day before. The true odds don't work that way.

What?

[Katoke]

Spoiler: show

This is advanced.

[Despain]

More interested in neo's picture than anything else in this thread to be honest.

[Deimos]

This is advanced.

Well, apparently it's advanced math, given how many people have gotten it wrong so far.

The chance of it being the same zone as yesterday would be 1/7.

The chance of the next two days being the same would be 1/49.

See the difference? In the first case, you already know what one result is.

[Neoscrilla]

More interested in neo's picture than anything else in this thread to be honest.

[Fodder]

I've seen a back to back same zone pop.

[Mojo]

Holyyyyy fuck there is some awful math in this thread.

[Yugl]

Holyyyyy fuck there is some awful math in this thread.

Oh you just wait till Napoleon math gets here.

[Darkslitter]

Sweet I have a test over this stuff on thursday. Now someone explain the expected value and variance of sandworm to me.

[ZhiGaruda]

This. The fact that ANYONE who's camped it for any amount of time hasn't seen it is evidence enough to the contrary that I would side with them before Zhi, no matter how much I love him.

I have seen it pop 2 days in a row in the same zone, on Ramuh AND Unicorn servers

I've seen it pop in Sauromugue Champaign [S] twice in a row, so yes it can

I put one in bold, one in pink, so maybe you can differentiate between the seperate entities. Aside from these two, my linkshell owned Sandworm for months, uncontested. I'd say I have a good idea of how it pops?

[Beave]

So I am out scanning SW, and I see blank lines in the wide scan menu. So i track it and see this:

Spoiler: show

http://i45.tinypic.com/2mm5wuf.png

GM's playing NPC's now?

I'm going to blame this on my shitty laptop, but what exactly am I looking for in this picture? Do I need stereo glasses?

[Diomer]

Only way it can pop in the same zone back to back is a maintenance or *maybe* if it gets killed without DV (Not sure on this, just speculation). The other occurances are due to missed pops and depops OR back when SW could pop 10 mins after DV (Never happened on Gilga so no idea on how that worked.)

[Killo]

So my LS won't accept the fact that Sandworm can pop in the same zone 2 days in a row (even though I've seen it many times) so I decided to make a BG post to prove them wrong. So yeah, can Sandworm pop in the same zone 2 days in a row or not?

Went to you LS site assuming that is the current one in your Signature...
"Sandworm #219(Serket), Dark Ixion #211"

If you don't know by the 219 SandWorm I would slap some Sacks!

But yes can pop in same zone 2 days in a row.

[Fottiti]

I put one in bold, one in pink, so maybe you can differentiate between the seperate entities. Aside from these two, my linkshell owned Sandworm for months, uncontested. I'd say I have a good idea of how it pops?

Seeing as how sandworm and ixion are pretty much the only 2 HNM that pop in the manner they do (although there are a few differences) then Ixion's pop conditions can also help support any anecdotal arguement (which is all this is). Ixion can't pop in the same zone 2 days in a row, ever. It can however pop in a zone one day, repop in another the next and depop before the scanner realises then repop in same zone as previous day (assuming they aren't using scanzone).

I have personally never seen sandworm pop in the same zone 2 days in a row when it appears to be following normal popping conditions, and this is over 80 kills and probably 130~ total camps.

[Botosi]

Went to you LS site assuming that is the current one in your Signature...
"Sandworm #219(Serket), Dark Ixion #211"

If you don't know by the 219 SandWorm I would slap some Sacks!

But yes can pop in same zone 2 days in a row.

Old LS lol and I was one of the sacks >.>;;
Yeah I know it can pop in the same zone twice in a row as I've seen it multiple times, I just made this thread to prove to my LS that it can.

[Fottiti]

This thread hasn't proved anything like that so far and unless someone has actually documented the zones its popped in over a long enough period of time then it won't.

[Dramafinderftw]

sup in this thread.