Sandworm "Question"

[Mairja]

I've been doing SW more or less since it started doing the DV thing, and I have never seen it pop in the same zone 2 days in a row. As others have mentioned, I suspect for those that have that it's been a pop/depop/repop thing.

Not saying it's 100% impossible that it can pop same zone twice in a row. But I'm sort of a "gotta see it to believe it" kinda person.

[Omnipotent]

Camped it every day in Demo for god knows how long and I NEVER saw it pop in the same zone 2 days running. To the people that did, I'm calling it maybe depopped and repopped.

LIES, you fake afk'd the days it did AMIRITE?

[FailureMidgard]

Strangely enough, I have better things to do than sitting around waiting for a mob to pop at a random in any one of a number of zones. So, not really giving a toss about the sandworm, I took the number of open air zones as a working assumption.

If the pop is truly random, meaning that the probability of a pop in a given zone is independent of when and where it popped last, the probability of it popping in one of n zones in a given day is 1/n, and the probability of it popping in a given pair of zones on consecutive days is (1/n)^2. Changing n from 12 to 7 does not change the underlying "math," it simply changes the results of the calculations. In a practical sense, if it just popped in one zone, there is a significant chance that it will pop in that zone the next day (and it is a much higher probability if there are 7 zones rather than 12), because the probability of a pop next day remains 1/7.

The real point is only that the chance of it popping in the same zone on two consecutive days is small, but it is not zero. However, a systematic collection of pop distributions might be interesting(and I'm surprised nobody has posted one.)

Did you seriously just ignore the rest of my posts, my other posts, and everyone else's posts and then respond that you didn't realize that it had 7 zones? Fine, the # of zones doesn't change the math, but our math is still wrong, it is 1/n, not (1/n)^2. I'm seriously amazed you read all these posts, and are still claiming your math is correct. The chance of it popping in Rolan 2 days in a row is (1/7)^2. Sadly for you, there are still 7 different zones for it to double pop in, meaning 7*(1/7)^2, or 1/7. The chance of it popping 2 days in a row if there is an equal independent chance of it popping is INCREDIBLY HIGH, relatively. As we said, you should see it once per week roughly.

Stop arguing, you're wrong and don't have a grasp of the math at all. Maybe you missed the spoiler I put in, so I'll help you out, here is every combination for a 2-day span:

1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, 1-7
2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 2-4, 2-5, 2-6, 2-7
3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, 3-7
4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7
5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, 5-6, 5-7
6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, 6-6, 6-7
7-1, 7-2, 7-3, 7-4, 7-5, 7-6, 7-7

There are 7x7 possible permutations, exactly 7 of those are double pops in a zone. 7/49 = 1/7.

[GavinBandura]

tee hee. Plus, Bal, you'll remember we had the SW bot long, long, long, long before that shit was ever made for ffxiapp and so we tracked where it popped everyday for months and I can say 100% that in months it never popped in the same zone 2 days in a row.

[Omnipotent]

tee hee. Plus, Bal, you'll remember we had the SW bot long, long, long, long before that shit was ever made for ffxiapp and so we tracked where it popped everyday for months and I can say 100% that in months it never popped in the same zone 2 days in a row.

Yeah , I just wanted to hear you say my name.

[HadesChubbs]

Camped since it started doomvoiding, and I can say with 100% certainty under NORMAL circumstances, SW does not pop in the same zone twice.

However, if SW was to repop hours later as it sometimes does (used to? hasnt in awhile for Hades), then a repop in the same zone as the previous day may be possible. If SW depops early, it may repop in the same zone as the previous day.

If sandworm were to able pop in the same zone under normal circumstances two days in a row, we would see the majority (if not everybody) confirming it. Because only a few people are able to remember it popping in the same zone twice, the logical conclusion should be "there was a special condition and/or glitch".

It could be either a condition or a glitch, I dont really know, and dont really care. We keep a scanner in all zones if possible (KA/Guivre>Serket>Zone it was yesterday) priority just to be safe.

[sleekmotorwurkz]

I agree, logic alone can tell you that it cant pop 2 days in the same zone UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. Like was said before you have a 1/7 chance of seeing the same zone which, in theory, should happen roughly once a week. Some people have seen it yes (I have myself also) but it could have been because of 1. depop-repop, 2. wipe inside SW previous day, 3. previous glitches before SW was fixed.

If THIS many people who have killed so many of them, have never seen it in years of camping, when the probability is 1/7, Id say it is very unlikely it can. But like chubbs said, we keep a scanner there, just in case.

[Talisien]

I agree, logic alone can tell you that it cant pop 2 days in the same zone UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. Like was said before you have a 1/7 chance of seeing the same zone which, in theory, should happen roughly once a week. Some people have seen it yes (I have myself also) but it could have been because of 1. depop-repop, 2. wipe inside SW previous day, 3. previous glitches before SW was fixed.

If THIS many people who have killed so many of them, have never seen it in years of camping, when the probability is 1/7, Id say it is very unlikely it can. But like chubbs said, we keep a scanner there, just in case.

Thought it was 1/49 to pop in the *same* zone as the previous day. Obviously 1/7 is the chance it will pop in any given zone on any given day.

Good to know years later I still hate probability.

[sleekmotorwurkz]

Thought it was 1/49 to pop in the *same* zone as the previous day. Obviously 1/7 is the chance it will pop in any given zone on any given day.

Good to know years later I still hate probability.

It was already said before, it is 7/49 = 1/7

as far as 2 day probability goes (assume each zone has its own number)

1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, 1-7
2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 2-4, 2-5, 2-6, 2-7
3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, 3-7
4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7
5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, 5-6, 5-7
6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, 6-6, 6-7
7-1, 7-2, 7-3, 7-4, 7-5, 7-6, 7-7

[Talisien]

It was already said before, it is 7/49 = 1/7

as far as 2 day probability goes (assume each zone has its own number)

1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, 1-7
2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 2-4, 2-5, 2-6, 2-7
3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, 3-7
4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7
5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, 5-6, 5-7
6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, 6-6, 6-7
7-1, 7-2, 7-3, 7-4, 7-5, 7-6, 7-7

Ah yes, thanks. Sorry about that, I am truly bad at probability math.

[Sev]

You can go along with what ever you all have seen but I will take my back to back pops in the same zone since It has happened again this week.

[ZhiGaruda]

You can go along with what ever you all have seen but I will take my back to back pops in the same zone since It has happened again this week.

Basically this, lol. It may not be as noticeable for regular members of a shell, but as someone who didn't miss a single Sandworm for several months, and always had 2-3 people per zone scanning, I can definitely say it wasn't the case of a depop-repop kind of thing, especially since that messes with the timer (so it obviously would've been noticed).

[Sev]

Basically this, lol. It may not be as noticeable for regular members of a shell, but as someone who didn't miss a single Sandworm for several months, and always had 2-3 people per zone scanning, I can definitely say it wasn't the case of a depop-repop kind of thing, especially since that messes with the timer (so it obviously would've been noticed).

Maybe its just garuda =P

[Ohaigaiz]

really this thread is still going?

[HadesChubbs]

really this thread is still going?

Do you ever do anything useful around here? Not being sarcastic, that was an actual question.

[Ohaigaiz]

Do you ever do anything useful around here? Not being sarcastic, that was an actual question.

i'm sure i've submitted my fair share of gimps, but no, i can't say i pick up trash around the bg campus to keep it clean and tidy. is this where i say what it is exactly that you or 99% of bg does?

derail inc

[Killo]

i'm sure i've submitted my fair share of gimps, but no, i can't say i pick up trash around the bg campus to keep it clean and tidy. is this where i say what it is exactly that you or 99% of bg does?

derail inc

You use punctuation but not capitalization? -Trolling done for a sec!

Sandworm related if Sandworm can pop 2 day in a row I'm assuming it can pop multiple days in a row like 3-5? But like realllllyyyyy unlikely. -(In theory)

[Ohaigaiz]

You use punctuation but not capitalization? -Trolling done for a sec!

it's kind of my thing

[Draylo]

Old avatar was better

[Yugl]

Old avatar was better

The one with the woman or the one with "banned" on top of it?