Sandworm "Question"

[FailureMidgard]

It was already said before, it is 7/49 = 1/7

as far as 2 day probability goes (assume each zone has its own number)

1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, 1-7
2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 2-4, 2-5, 2-6, 2-7
3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, 3-7
4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7
5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, 5-6, 5-7
6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, 6-6, 6-7
7-1, 7-2, 7-3, 7-4, 7-5, 7-6, 7-7

Chart thief...

You can go along with what ever you all have seen but I will take my back to back pops in the same zone since It has happened again this week.

Basically this, lol. It may not be as noticeable for regular members of a shell, but as someone who didn't miss a single Sandworm for several months, and always had 2-3 people per zone scanning, I can definitely say it wasn't the case of a depop-repop kind of thing, especially since that messes with the timer (so it obviously would've been noticed).

Except, the rest of us don't have the same faith in all your scanners that you do. Past that, I don't have that much faith in my scanners either. Only takes ONE of them to be afk / not paying attention to miss it. Also, it doesn't mess with the timer afaik? The window reopens the minute it depops...

[ZhiGaruda]

Except, the rest of us don't have the same faith in all your scanners that you do. Past that, I don't have that much faith in my scanners either. Only takes ONE of them to be afk / not paying attention to miss it. Also, it doesn't mess with the timer afaik? The window reopens the minute it depops...

So far as I could discern, a depop meant the window restarting, not just reopening. We once had a 6 hour scan going because someone had AFK'd and it had depopped on them.

[Gregorio]

Did you seriously just ignore the rest of my posts, my other posts, and everyone else's posts and then respond that you didn't realize that it had 7 zones? Fine, the # of zones doesn't change the math, but our math is still wrong, it is 1/n, not (1/n)^2. I'm seriously amazed you read all these posts, and are still claiming your math is correct. The chance of it popping in Rolan 2 days in a row is (1/7)^2. Sadly for you, there are still 7 different zones for it to double pop in, meaning 7*(1/7)^2, or 1/7. The chance of it popping 2 days in a row if there is an equal independent chance of it popping is INCREDIBLY HIGH, relatively. As we said, you should see it once per week roughly.

Stop arguing, you're wrong and don't have a grasp of the math at all. Maybe you missed the spoiler I put in, so I'll help you out, here is every combination for a 2-day span:

1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, 1-7
2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 2-4, 2-5, 2-6, 2-7
3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, 3-7
4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7
5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, 5-6, 5-7
6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, 6-6, 6-7
7-1, 7-2, 7-3, 7-4, 7-5, 7-6, 7-7

There are 7x7 possible permutations, exactly 7 of those are double pops in a zone. 7/49 = 1/7.

People not understanding this reminds me of a problem we discussed in a class I had a while ago. If you flip a coin and it lands heads 49 times, what is the probability that the next flip will land heads? The answer's 50/50 because the 49 times already happened. Not asking what the probability of the coin landing heads 50 times in a row is, simply the next flip after the 49 times already happened.

So for everyone having trouble with this...Much like the coin, he already popped in the zone once, if it were based on probability alone it would still be 1/7. If he popped in the same zone 3 days in a row, the probability that he would pop in that same zone the next day is still 1/7.