Final Form Magian Weapons

[Draylo]

One of the crappiest things about this game. I wonder what the world would be like if you had a 30-second cool-down on all actions when any gear other than ammunition was changed. I imagine a little more interesting.

Ever played ballista?

[Narol]

Which is further proof that SE doesn't understand how their own damn game works.

[NynJa]

Little bit of info on the Cat's Claws with Defense Down as an additional effect. It appears that the AE proc rate is roughly 5%. This held up for the ~6000 hits needed to complete the final trial (took 7 hours to get 250 procs....), and a short test afterwards with the final weapon.

That's radically different from the claimed 50% proc rate on weaker mobs for the scythe. Scaled relative to delay, the scythe procs 4x as often as the H2H. Even if the rate really should have been the lower 20%-35%, the scythe still procs twice as often over time.

Pro-tip:
The add effect doesnt stack on top of itself. If a mob is afflicted from a stat down effect, you wont see another add effect untill it wears.

I was able to get anywhere from 5 to 15 procs on a single Karakul for Eva Dn scythe because I'd trigger it, then turn and sleep it on my rdm mule. The effect does indeed proc very often if you do it like so, the most I had to successfully swing at the mob for it to land was 7 hits, but this was not uncommon at all (chatlog excerpt, didnt take SS):
Nynja hits the Karakul
Add effect: Eva Dn
Vermy casts Sleep
Karakul's Eva Dn effect wears off
Nynka hits the Karakul
Add effect: Eva Dn


the aforementioned post of the add effects lasting 30 seconds is valid as well, with subject to resists (rare, but I had one last for 15 seconds).

[pchan]

Yeah, you don't need a transition matrix for a simple case like 100% DA and max 2 hits per round. Letting D be the event that a double attack occurs in a single round, it follows that the probability of overflow is

http://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?...+ P(D|DD)P(DD)

and the joint probabilities are straightforward to compute from independence of events.

How would you account for situations with non-100% hit rate and like 5 hits possible per round, though? It's easier to set up the appropriate transition matrix, accounting for how much overflow might occur (1, 2, 3, or 4 hits in excess) along with the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 hits. Then obtain the appropriate n-step transition matrix to get the probability of overflow for any x-hit setup (limited only by the matrix dimensions). You can make the transition matrix as large as necessary to encompass dual-wield scenarios.

Example: 95% hit rate, dual-wielding with 15% double attack rate and 15 hits required to attain 100 TP. Obtain the overflow probabilities (probability of ending with 16, 17, and 18 ) from a 14-step 19x19 transition matrix (you don't really need to go to 14 because probabilities quickly "converge"). They are .4246476, .11025272, and .008391217. The average number of hits is 15.67033, which agrees with an alternative method of obtaining it (brute-force conditional expectation).

You say you have a formula for Love Halberd, but do you know how it really works? If it's like Fortitude Axe, it won't quadruple-attack. If you know that already, are you sure you know how DA interacts with it (where applicable)? If you're wrong, then you would have to go back to the drawing board. Alternatively, you could just crank out the appropriate transition matrix without deriving hard formulas.

NIN DPS: DPS figure follows from the concept of a rate.

OAT and DA: OAT great axe is junk if OAT and DA work like Joyeuse. We'll see.

I discussed with mdk a while ago, although he doesn't use the same method (he computes the coefficients of some rational function) it end up being equivalent to the markov chain approach (or matrix^n, or linear recursive system).

edit : for all methods the "hard" part is computing the transition matrix, or equivalentely, the chance to land 0,1,2,3,...,8 hits, with a given accuracy/zanshin rate/tripple attack rate/KA rate/accuracy/DA rate etc. It's a bit of a headhache for soboro for instance, but for "normal" oat weapon like joyeuse (2 swings max) it's fairly easy. For sea weapons you have 3 swings, and they are independant, so it's pretty easy too.

OAT and DA: OAT great axe is junk if OAT and DA work like Joyeuse. We'll see.

I had it better than perdu, but since I'm no war I might have done mistakes somewhere.

[CDF]

Luchtaine is viable if the OAT rate is 50% and effective DA rate is .50(1+DA rate)*100%, but I suppose someone already did the comparison under that assumption.

My own experience (data collection) with Fortitude Axe indicates a higher triple attack rate much higher than what is expected if the OAT rate were actually 50% under independence (OAT and DA on the same hit), and no, I wasn't hasted at all.

[Vodou]

Luchtaine is viable if the OAT rate is 50% and effective DA rate is .50(1+DA rate)*100%, but I suppose someone already did the comparison under that assumption.

My own experience (data collection) with Fortitude Axe indicates a higher triple attack rate much higher than what is expected if the OAT rate were actually 50% under independence (OAT and DA on the same hit), and no, I wasn't hasted at all.

Not sure where this is going, but the best way to present contradictory data is to present actual data, preferably under conditions that isolate the key variables. If you have a parse of you killing some prey etc under requisite conditions and can present it (e.g., as Radec did), it would be a start for people to follow your point.

I don't have an opinion one way of the other really. If people have tests and can demonstrate a mathematical model that fits better that what we have or that is equal to something else, but much easier to implement, that's the one I want.

People do from time to time successfully challenge accepted wisdom, but not through anecdotal observations.

[CDF]

With respect to Fortitude Axe (with my own data), there is no contradictory data, not for lack of asking around, mainly because no one cares.

With respect to Luchtaine, throwing out arithmetic and sometimes algebra (rather poor at times) is the norm, and presenting actual data the exception, for better or worse.

Speculating idly can be ass-backwards sometimes, but the discussion of probability models (excluding some) follows from Radec's data, not the other way around.

Why do people still buy Coeurl Subs when curry buns are substantially cheaper?

[pooter01]

Pro-tip:
The add effect doesnt stack on top of itself. If a mob is afflicted from a stat down effect, you wont see another add effect untill it wears.

Taken from the person who actually did the test. The large sample is from the final trial, but the smaller sample of the final form is conforming with the results. He took out 20% of all swings to account for swings when it was already active(very high %imo) and still couldn't get higher than 5% proc rate.

For the final trial, I had 5923 melee hits to complete the 250 trial activations. Scaling back for kicks (estimated 6.67% of all attacks), and even taking out 20% of all attacks as invalid due to hitting the mob while the effect was still in place (I haven't finalized the code in the parser to do the calculations yet; don't think it's as high as 20%, but that gives a pretty safe buffer), that still leaves the proc rate at 5.6%. A quick trial on spiders outside Whitegate for the final weapon gave 6 procs in 165 attacks, though there was more chance to miss a proc during dances. 6.66% kicks and 10% invalid attacks, plus one hidden proc, leaves the proc rate at 5%.

[pchan]

Luchtaine is viable if the OAT rate is 50% and effective DA rate is .50(1+DA rate)*100%, but I suppose someone already did the comparison under that assumption.

My own experience (data collection) with Fortitude Axe indicates a higher triple attack rate much higher than what is expected if the OAT rate were actually 50% under independence (OAT and DA on the same hit), and no, I wasn't hasted at all.

with 22% DA, 50% OAT, 95% both being independant I find


chance of 1 attack : (1-0.22)*0.5=39%
chance of 2 attacks : 0.22*0.5+(1-0.22)*0.5=50%
chance of 3 attacks : 0.22*0.5=11%

well with 95% it's a bit different, it depends of you register siwngs or actual hits.

[Motenten]

Pro-tip:
The add effect doesnt stack on top of itself. If a mob is afflicted from a stat down effect, you wont see another add effect untill it wears.

I know. For the 6000 hits during the trial, I turned around after each proc until it wore off, then started hitting again. Even allowing for a bit of slop with extra hits landing after the proc, with say 10%-20% being invalid, and removing the ~6.6% of hits that were actually kicks, the proc rate is still in the 5%-5.6% range.

I would frequently go through entire mobs without a single proc. I think my longest stretch was 3 mobs with one proc near the end of the third. Killed a total of 155 hounds, with an average of 38 hits per mob, and 1.6 procs per mob. Estimated average time to proc at about 45 seconds of combat with 24% haste.

[pchan]

I know. For the 6000 hits during the trial, I turned around after each proc until it wore off, then started hitting again. Even allowing for a bit of slop with extra hits landing after the proc, with say 10%-20% being invalid, and removing the ~6.6% of hits that were actually kicks, the proc rate is still in the 5%-5.6% range.

I would frequently go through entire mobs without a single proc. I think my longest stretch was 3 mobs with one proc near the end of the third. Killed a total of 155 hounds, with an average of 38 hits per mob, and 1.6 procs per mob. Estimated average time to proc at about 45 seconds of combat with 24% haste.

The ~5% proc rate is the same as the ones from the fey weapons (h2H only) then, not a big surprise.

[CDF]

with 22% DA, 50% OAT, 95% both being independant I find


chance of 1 attack : (1-0.22)*0.5=39%
chance of 2 attacks : 0.22*0.5+(1-0.22)*0.5=50%
chance of 3 attacks : 0.22*0.5=11%

well with 95% it's a bit different, it depends of you register siwngs or actual hits.

I'll just throw this out there in case anyone's interested.

When I got the data for Fortitude Axe, it was easier for me to record total landed hits manually, so under independence the probabilities break out as follows for 21% DA and 50% OAT:

0: .021013125
1: .423498125
2: .465464375
3: .090024375

Counts (n = 236) were 5, 96, 100, 35. 35/236 = .1483051.

[Gwynplaine]

So, I'm not sure if this has already been posted, but friend completed a Lightning Affinity: Magic Damage +3 / MAcc+1 staff and reports 20% Staff bonus.

Anyone have additional info or verification on this yet?

[CDF]

Now that I did my part to make this thread even less readable, here's a corroborating account of what magic damage +3 actually does (fire Teiwaz)

[Demosthenes11]

Anyone have additional info or verification on this yet?

whoa whoa how did I miss this. Needs confirmation fast

[Malacite]

Could someone please answer/correct my question about the dual-wielding?


Also idk if it's worth giving up the haste, but I ran the numbers on Kikoku (with final augment) & Perdu and the combined DPS was 20 with Suppa, Relic Pants & AF Body. That's pretty nasty o-O


Makes me wonder if once they raise the caps, will NIN finally become a respectable DD? Following the trait pattern, they should get DW5 around level 85 and depending on the value (5% like most, or another 10 like 3 was) could make NIN one freakishly fast attacker.

[Onorgul]

Also idk if it's worth giving up the haste, but I ran the numbers on Kikoku (with final augment) & Perdu and the combined DPS was 20 with Suppa, Relic Pants & AF Body. That's pretty nasty o-O

I'm too lazy to do the math, but considering Spharai achieves a similar kind of DPS rating, I wouldn't be terribly surprised. DPS isn't a perfect predictor of damage, though, as so much of two-handed weapon damage comes from weaponskills whereas Blade: Jin and various Hand-to-Hand weaponskills are merely ok sources of damage. The lower DPS rating on, say, Amanomurakumo is not taking into account how much less emphasis there is on per-hit damage as opposed to weaponskill damage (I'm obviously choosing one of the far extremes in this split).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't Byakko's Haidate be a better choice than Koga Hakama, though? I know there are some minor differences as regards the final benefit from 5% Haste versus 5% Dual Wield, but the 15 DEX makes a pretty decent difference with regards to balancing Accuracy gear (Pizza is a supplement, not a substitution) and adding a little bit to critical hit rate.

[Nightfyre]

Both DW and Haste have increasing returns with respect to straight DPS, so (disregarding Byakko's acc and crit) whichever you have more of before Byakko's/Koga is the stat you should continue to stack when going for max DPS. On the other hand, Haste affects WS frequency, so the correct thing to do would be to use Byakko's regardless if you ever plan to WS (and 7.5 accuracy + crit is nice).

[Oulanbator]

I really don't understand all you maths and overflow and models and stuff.

I'd like to know: can DA and OAT both proceed on the same hit and how ?
- no, it cannot, the extra hit will be DA or OAT, but it won't do more than 2 hits.
- yes it can, it will result in 3 hits (normal + OAT + DA) if both OAT and DA proc on the same swing
- yes it can, it could result in 4 hits (normal + OAT + DA on normal + DA on OAT) if DA proc on the normal and OAT hit
- yes it can, it could result in 4 hits (normal + DA + OAT on normal + OAT on DA) if OAT proc on the normal and DA hit
- others ? (don't include TA lol, this is complicated enough )


Lastly, is this proved or is this speculation ?

Thanks

[mdkuser]

I really don't understand all you maths and overflow and models and stuff.

I'd like to know: can DA and OAT both proceed on the same hit and how ?
- no, it cannot, the extra hit will be DA or OAT, but it won't do more than 2 hits.
- yes it can, it will result in 3 hits (normal + OAT + DA) if both OAT and DA proc on the same swing
- yes it can, it could result in 4 hits (normal + OAT + DA on normal + DA on OAT) if DA proc on the normal and OAT hit
- yes it can, it could result in 4 hits (normal + DA + OAT on normal + OAT on DA) if OAT proc on the normal and DA hit
- others ? (don't include TA lol, this is complicated enough )


Lastly, is this proved or is this speculation ?

Thanks

the GK tester reported he didn't see tripple attacks with the OAT weapon, and /war ( and same for the dagger tester IIRC). You cannot get quadruple attacks with jailer weapons btw so, only the first option is taken into account atm.

The question suggested above is if wether OAT and DA are independant or not, so far we assume independant.

If they are independant, then it does not matter which one is checked first between oat and DA.

if they are dependant, its much more complicated, and the order of checks matters. And you'd have to find the "degree of independance".