Superstition Poll

[Sworrub]

Oh, you certainly have the right to pick and choose. At the end of the day, it's business.

In the world of FFXI crafting, I say superstition is a detriment to good business. I have seen no evidence in the last 6 years to support any of the traditional superstitious factors to the point where adopting one or more of them would positively impact my business. Therefore, I choose not to employ them. I've tried most of the common ones without substantial success, and I've scoured the forums looking for anything that would be considered significant without finding anything.

So, like I said, if Joe Crafter only wants to craft on Darksdays or on Full Moons, that severely restricts his ability to churn out volume. I'm okay with that, because his personal restrictions mean that there's more opportunity for my volumes to earn a profit.

As for your question, I've always hated blind belief, and all too often, people preach anecdotally that "such and such helped me because I made 3 HQ Wind Staves in a row!" They pass this off as convincing logic or proof, and readers believe it. The average reader doesn't take the time to critically think about this sort of stuff, because they just want to make a buck.

At the end of the day, if it doesn't hurt you significantly, then by all means, have at it. But if you can't prove that it benefits you significantly, then don't run around telling people that it's a fact.

The plural of "anecdote" is not "data". ~ Frank Kotsonis

Good points all around. I just do it because it's a habit, I really don't have much proof than actually saying I've had better luck HQing better facing directions, days, and hours... but all time aspects do revolve around elements... kinda why the myth was invented in the first place.

[jaryk]

If you actually care that damn much about this, go do some tests. Craft X item on X day/moon and compare your results against the other days/moon.

You mean like the thousands of tests Aurik did and posted, and there's even a motherfucking sticky about? Yeah... what a crazy thought.

[nitsuj]

There was no option on the poll that you're a fucking idiot and hopefully will die a horrible and painful death... specifically involving something going into or coming out of your ass.

Also I love the people with 3 posts coming on to tell us about how they do it.

I'm actually quite intelligent, and don't enjoy things going in and out of my ass, sorry.

I'm a programmer and have programmed enough involving RPG's (see my sig) that regardless of my belief nor what BG says I know how other games have/would do something like crafting, and it has changed my perspective on it all could be implemented. I was just curious on what other people thought, when they weren't worried about big bad Sath yelling at them.

So you sir, shut the fuck up, I'm entitled to ask people's opinions on a public forum just like you're entitled to come on here and act like a baby because someone disagrees with you.

[nitsuj]

Because in the eight years that this game has been going this has NEVER EVER been done, right? This arguement has been going on for fucking ever and it's because you can't prove it either way.

Hence why I named the poll "superstition". I accept the fact that nobody (save the SE development team) will ever know for sure. Random shit is random.

But the thought process that goes into belief when 1,000,000 gil is on the line is rather interesting in itself.

[Fievel]

Hence why I named the poll "superstition". I accept the fact that nobody (save the SE development team) will ever know for sure. Random shit is random.

But the thought process that goes into belief when 1,000,000 gil is on the line is rather interesting in itself.

My comment was directed at the person saying to test shit thats been tested many many times.

[nitsuj]

My comment was directed at the person saying to test shit thats been tested many many times.

No problem, just making sure I was clear to everyone else

[tsaroth816]

Fishing, Chocobo Digging, heck even Synergy are crafts you have to level up AND are affected by the moon phase. Either by gear, confirmation from SE, or you go try digging up elemental ores on the wrong moon phase and waste your time.

So why for some "magical" reason are the other crafts not affected? They are. Just not every craft or synth is affected in the same way. Each has different moon phases that we just haven't tested properly, or can.

While the directional theory holds little water (star map chart directions in game map) the Moon phase theory has been proven time and time again. The 3rd theory of day is kinda iffy but easy to test. Go try some lightning crystal desynths on any day but Thunder/Dark, then try on Thunder/Dark. There is a difference.

[cdgreg]

While the directional theory holds little water (star map chart directions in game map) the Moon phase theory has been proven time and time again. The 3rd theory of day is kinda iffy but easy to test. Go try some lightning crystal desynths on any day but Thunder/Dark, then try on Thunder/Dark. There is a difference.

Where, other than a SS of look I HQ'd and typed /clock which of course results in New or Full Moon because that's the only time the person crafts?

[Fievel]

Fishing, Chocobo Digging, heck even Synergy are crafts you have to level up AND are affected by the moon phase. Either by gear, confirmation from SE, or you go try digging up elemental ores on the wrong moon phase and waste your time.

So why for some "magical" reason are the other crafts not affected? They are. Just not every craft or synth is affected in the same way. Each has different moon phases that we just haven't tested properly, or can.

While the directional theory holds little water (star map chart directions in game map) the Moon phase theory has been proven time and time again. The 3rd theory of day is kinda iffy but easy to test. Go try some lightning crystal desynths on any day but Thunder/Dark, then try on Thunder/Dark. There is a difference.

Please show me the proof of the "Moon phase theory"

Also I'll say it again, the whole "Craft with this on this day" test has been done so much fucking times, it's not original and its never been able to prove or disprove anything. Do you really think that test has never been done the eight years this game has been going? I feel like I just said this....oh wait.

Because in the eight years that this game has been going this has NEVER EVER been done, right? This arguement has been going on for fucking ever and it's because you can't prove it either way.

I did

[urat]

I think it would be just like SE to code in day phases to effect crafting, its that whole japanese almost pornographical fetish with the elements that every rpg known to mankind seems to adore.

Whether we can prove it? Nope I dont think we ever could as the margin of error is just too large and their are just too damn many variables to take into account. After 400 arrows I found that though my HQ rate arced up on both directions faced on polar opposite day, it was by like a fraction of a percent to normal days and like 1% over same day. And I dont mean from 50% to 55%, I mean 50% to 51% =/

In other words, its a mystery. Same goes for direction. It was like a marginal barely noticeable arc that was so indiscriminate it sat within margin of error 10 times over.

I did notice as I crafted and the moon went from 10 to 0% my Hq rate was gradually increasing so I do believe moon phase effects it by a hairsbreadth, but once again it was still within margin of error, it was a bit more noticeable than direction or day. and by more noticeable I mean by a second hairsbreadth within the margin of error.

My conclusion in general so far...

IF day/direction/moon do in fact effect your hq rate, it is minimal. Would I wait for a month holding 8 mats in my inv for the perfect 0% moon windsday? lol no

But if its 22:13 and the next day happens to be boosting my hq rate, or if its 1~2% away from new moon yeah sure I'll hold the mats til later and then attempt the synth. Maybe after a party or something.

tl;dr Yeah I believe they might be programmed to change rates, but I'm only going to use it when the wait is worth the marginal increase the combination of effects would even give me.

[tsaroth816]

Where, other than a SS of look I HQ'd and typed /clock which of course results in New or Full Moon because that's the only time the person crafts?

Please show me the proof of the "Moon phase theory"

-New/Full moon gives Chocobo digging better accuracy
-Digging elemental ores has to be 7% to 24% Moon Phase
-Fishing is affected by the Moon Phase. It has always been that way, and SE once even confirmed it
-Fisherman's cuffs on Synergy is affected by Moon Phase

Moon Phase can affect crafts. Proven. If you don't believe Fishing is a Craft, then you are dumb or never fished. Why is it listed under CRAFT Skl.? Why can it skill up? Why does it have a crafting guild? I never said Moon Phase affects HQ rate, that is up to whoever wants to believe that.

My whole thing was Moon Phase already can affect many many things in this game (NM pops, DM orb, etc) and some crafting. So why are people so adamant that it won't affect their craft? When it so clearly is already in the code for many other things.

Also I'll say it again, the whole "Craft with this on this day" test has been done so much fucking times, it's not original and its never been able to prove or disprove anything. Do you really think that test has never been done the eight years this game has been going? I feel like I just said this....oh wait.

I didn't say craft, I said desythesis. If I have to explain to you how it's different...

[Zouri]

Moon Phase can affect crafts. Proven.

I'd love to see proof... Where can i find this proof?

Moon phases correlate with fishing which relates to real life. That's nothing new. Trying to say moon phase affects something you create is entirely different. Fish are more likely to bite on new and full moons. You are no more or less likely to be successful creating an item at new or full moon though. Unless of course you are using the light of the moon to create your item.
Fishing is a skill, but wouldnt make sense if it were its own sub-menu when it can be easily tacked on to crafts..... Why can you have a 100 craft and 100 fishing, yet only have 40 levels to spread through all of the normal crafts above 60? It's an argument that's been around forever..... but.. what works for 1 doesnt work for all.

There's no way possible to isolate every single variable, and it would only make sense for a crafting system to be based on a very small number of variables. Ultimately, no result will prove anything.

[cdgreg]

I never said Moon Phase affects HQ rate, that is up to whoever wants to believe that.

Your previous quote

While the directional theory holds little water (star map chart directions in game map) the Moon phase theory has been proven time and time again. The 3rd theory of day is kinda iffy but easy to test. Go try some lightning crystal desynths on any day but Thunder/Dark, then try on Thunder/Dark. There is a difference.

I read directional theory, day theory, moonphase theory, and assumed you were referring to HQ in general not just desynth even though you offered it as an example at the end. If I mis-interpreted then my bad.

I actually read a quote today at work, and it struck me as appropriate for this topic: "Hypotheses that remain untested after a reasonable period of time after their formulation should be discarded."

Inb4: it has been tested, use the search function, darrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

In my opinion, completely non-scientific based, considering the number of people who are DIE HARD direction, day, moon people, I assumed there would be a few who kept track of their synths. And of those few, if there was ANYTHING that appeared to lean towards statistical proof that any of those factors increase HQ they would have rubbed it in the non-believers faces and enjoyed their e-fame.

[Sign]

I face whatever direction is facing the vendor/AH counter that I am getting my mats from. As for fishing, I already have been recording time spent per round of bait and number of catches, I might expand my sheets to include moonphase/% to finally put that one too bed or confirm. I know there is the SE link above but they have changed so much shit wrt fishing I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the old changes removed. (ie. the need for zoning; it only seems to be in some zones if it still exists at all. Only time I have ever seen it possibly happen is in Windurst Waters and Al Zahbi so far. Of course that is anecdotal evidence so it can't even be taken as conclusive.)

[Fievel]

I'd love to see proof... Where can i find this proof?

Moon phases correlate with fishing which relates to real life. That's nothing new. Trying to say moon phase affects something you create is entirely different. Fish are more likely to bite on new and full moons. You are no more or less likely to be successful creating an item at new or full moon though. Unless of course you are using the light of the moon to create your item.
Fishing is a skill, but wouldnt make sense if it were its own sub-menu when it can be easily tacked on to crafts..... Why can you have a 100 craft and 100 fishing, yet only have 40 levels to spread through all of the normal crafts above 60? It's an argument that's been around forever..... but.. what works for 1 doesnt work for all.

There's no way possible to isolate every single variable, and it would only make sense for a crafting system to be based on a very small number of variables. Ultimately, no result will prove anything.

I love you, couldn't have said it better myself.

[Acturus]

Again, something that gets lost in these arguments is the difference between "Variable X has no effect" and "Variable X has no significant effect."

I have no problem believing that facing East while using Fire Crystals or whatever probably has an effect, but it hasn't been proven to be significant, and likely never will.

Like many things in FFXI, there are wheels within wheels, but very few of them are overtly influencial.

[nitsuj]

Again, something that gets lost in these arguments is the difference between "Variable X has no effect" and "Variable X has no significant effect."

I have no problem believing that facing East while using Fire Crystals or whatever probably has an effect, but it hasn't been proven to be significant, and likely never will.

Like many things in FFXI, there are wheels within wheels, but very few of them are overtly influencial.

This post wins the thread.

[tymora]

There is a luck number associated with being on a particular job on a particular day and every character in the game has a set (See the fortune teller in Lower Jeuno). I.e. This is not randomly generated and it is possible for characters to have identical ones.

Does it do anything? No clue. I don't do enough volume crafting in Woodworking to conclude much. My own records indicate results around the standard HQ rates.

If it does, it invalidates every single test (including Aurik's) done on superstition done to date, which means what you believe and don't believe amounts to nothing. It also means that mileage will vary for every single character for any single given day.

If it doesn't, its still there in the game, open for interpretation on what it exactly affects.