Mog Bonanza Imminent! (07/05/2010)

[Seanr]

Damn I just realized they have Shenlong's in the Rank 1... I'd still pick Gil more than likely.

[Priran]

Fuck y'all, I deserve a relic for having inv-10 per character for a month and a half.

Jesus christ can you even fucking read?

[Dooom]

Jesus christ can you even fucking read?

This might help.

Seems it wasn't clear that I was agreeing with you in thinking Hyan was making himself look rather silly.

[Priran]

It's really not apparent that you're disagreeing with Hyan when you make the same point as someone who agrees with him and then say something about "petty bitching" without any reference.

[Silenka]

Wow are people really arguing over the mog bonanza?
What is this I don't even

[Karbuncle]

Shut the fuck up. Pointing out that something has no defensible reason for being in the rank it's in is not the same as trying to wheedle rare items into low ranks so they're easier to get.

-Why are Vampiric Claws, Moldy Earring, Empress Pin, and Bounding Boots on this list at all?
-Why is Damascene Cloth on this list at all?
-Why is one of the new statues rank 5 and the other is rank 4?
-Why is Ridill still in the same rank as KClub, PW/AV drops, and Salvage bodies?

All legitimate questions.

Its called sarcasm? look it up.

i mean Jesus tap dancing christ if the caps lock wasn't enough of a give-away for you then you need help beyond want todays medical science can provide.

If anything i was agreeing with you.

-DAYUM-

[Narol]

Damn I just realized they have Shenlong's in the Rank 1... I'd still pick Gil more than likely.

Shenlong's does tempt me, too. I'm just glad I'm never going to have to make the choice seriously between them and gil, because they are mighty sexy.

[Cleverness]

-Why is Ridill still in the same rank as KClub, PW/AV drops, and Salvage bodies?

Same reason people still pay 30M+ for it; nobody knows.

[Midnightjade]

Here we go again.

10k != free. Only you would make an argument out of it.

It's actually 20k per mule, for the OCD amongst us. Although I was really just posting to request more pictures of Samuel L. filling Sage Sundi full of lead.

I and my mules have never won a damn thing from Bonanza, but even so I blow 40-100k each and every time. Pavlov's Dog clearly did NOT play FFXI, when the Bonanza bell rings I really should have learned by now to ignore it, or better, run like hell in the opposite direction. :D

[Narol]

If you're not at least winning rank 5 on every single character, you're doing it wrong.

[orson]

If you're not at least winning rank 5 on every single character, you're doing it wrong.

Unless you just don't give 2 shits about the rank 5 prize. Then you might as well just randomly generate it unless you have 10 or more characters.

[Fawkes]

If you're not at least winning rank 5 on every single character, you're doing it wrong.

Sure, if rank 5 is the only thing you want to win. I prefer just picking random numbers.

[Khamsin]

Sure, if rank 5 is the only thing you want to win. I prefer just picking random numbers.

Can at least pick 10 random numbers ending in a different number each time. Each one is just as likely!

I'll probably do something like use random.org for a number between 1-99999, click generate, write the number down, click generate again until I get a number with a different last digit, write it down, and so forth until I have 10 random numbers with different last digits.

Alternatively, could also pick my five favorite lucky numbers, and generate two numbers ending in one of those numbers, for each number. Kind of an all-or-nothing deal, but 50% chance of getting both new rank 5 statues. Actually, slightly less than 50% because there is the possibility that I hit a rank 4 instead, which would preclude me from getting rank 5, in the event that the last digit in the rank 4 winning number is the same as the last digit in the rank 5 winning number.

[Max™]

The Priran-Pikarya "say wut again" exchange was easily the best part of this thread.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/random_number.png

Unrelated:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_QTMkWfqFyf...ishes_xkcd.png

[Narol]

Sure, if rank 5 is the only thing you want to win. I prefer just picking random numbers.

Having your 10 marbles all have different ending digits does precisely nothing to your odds of winning anything higher.

[Darkmagi]

well if you had all your numbers ending the with the last 2 digits you could win 10 rank 4s! <,<

[Midnightjade]

The Priran-Pikarya "say wut again" exchange was easily the best part of this thread.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/random_number.png

Man, I love XKCD. Here's another:


http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/flies.png


And yeah, it's easy to get a Rank 5 prize each time in Bonanza, but my MH is starting to look like a sculpture gallery, lol.

[Fawkes]

Having your 10 marbles all have different ending digits does precisely nothing to your odds of winning anything higher.

Since your marbles cover every ones digit and there can only be 5 different winning ones digit numbers at the most, at least 5 of your marbles are guaranteed to lose no matter what. You'd only have one marble that could potentially win for any given rank, whereas someone playing random numbers could have the chance of winning the same rank multiple times.

[Khamsin]

Since your marbles cover every ones digit and there can only be 5 different winning ones digit numbers at the most, at least 5 of your marbles are guaranteed to lose no matter what. You'd only have one marble that could potentially win for any given rank, whereas someone playing random numbers could have the chance of winning the same rank multiple times.

Kinda depends on how confident you are that the ones digits you do choose will be the winner.

As you pointed out, if you have a different ones digit for all your marbles, you have a 100% chance that half of them will lose, but are almost guaranteed a rank 5 and a small chance at something more with half of your marbles. Conversely, if all your marbles have the same ones digit, you have about a 10% chance at getting a ton of rank 5s, and a small chance at something more with all your marbles... keeping in mind that 60% of the time, you won't even manage to match the last digit on any winning number, let alone the other digits you need for rank 1-4.

Granted, there's a lot of middle ground to explore, maybe having 5 different ones digits, then the other 5 ending in your lucky number... or picking two lucky numbers and making 5 marbles ending in one and 5 marbles ending in the other, etc. But considering the low probabilities of winning higher ranks, don't be surprised if you run the math and discover that guaranteeing a small win has a better expected value than the small chance at the big win.

[Fawkes]

Well, I might only defend the random position because the first bonanza I played it safe and got nothing but rank 5s, and in the second bonanza I played random numbers and got a rank 4 and a rank 2 (and probably some rank 5s, but I didn't count them). So in my experience I've had better luck with random. Of course this was across multiple characters, and I think I had maybe 30 more marbles for the bonanza I did better at, so it's probably not the greatest example as far as convincing other people goes.